1. Yikes!
Wow. That was terrible.
2. How bad was Jake Arrieta, exactly?
It was definitely inflated by some bad first inning luck, but he also gave up two home runs, so…I don’t know. Don’t love that. Especially in the cumulative sense.
3. Is the offense a topic of concern?
The Cubs have faced good pitching this week, but I mean, yeah, at some point you have to get concerned. I’m not there yet, personally, but yeah, at some point.
4. I’d take Tony Wolters, I think.
Out of all the backup catching options, my impression is Wolters is the most capable defensively, and you’re getting no production when Contreras doesn’t start, so why not get that absence of production from a guy who’s capable and adds a little versatility to the roster? Hopefully the Cubs figure something else out (look out for someone—not me, but maybe eventually me—making an argument in the near future that the Cubs should try Miguel Amaya for a moment). We’ll see.
5. Bounce back today and all feels fine.
We knew the starting rotation was an issue, we knew the offense wasn’t going to be perfect, we know the Cubs’ path to contention is still laid primarily upon the mediocrity of the NL Central. Win today and finishing June on that 90-win pace is still very doable, you’ll still be tied for first, and folks can put the panic button away at least for a minute.
***
Around the Division:
The Brewers finally won one in Denver, beating the Rockies 6-5. The Reds lost, the Cardinals got rained out, we all wallow through together.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
T-1. Milwaukee: 39-32, 54.9%
T-1. Cubs: 39-32, 25.3%
3. Cincinnati: 35-34, 12.4%
4. St. Louis: 35-35, 7.4%
5. Pittsburgh: 25-44, 0.0%
Doubleheader for the Cards today: Adam Wainwright vs. Bryse Wilson, Kwang Hyun Kim vs. Drew Smyly. Eric Lauer pitches against Chi Chi González in Denver. Luis Castillo vs. Dinelson Lamet in San Diego.
Up Next:
Sweep avoidance drill.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Miami
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Might get some storms, but looking like those are laying off until later in the afternoon. Wind’s supposed to shift when they come in but should be blowing in from the right field corner until then. Five to ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Zach Thompson, who we discussed on Friday when we thought he was starting, is actually starting today. Alec Mills for the Cubs.
The Opponent:
The Marlins should not be scoring this many runs, everybody.
The Numbers:
Cubs are -150 favorites, with the Marlins at +140. So maybe a 57% chance of a win, according to the market? Over/under’s at 9½ and favors the under.
Cubs News:
Adbert Alzolay should start tomorrow, which is a big relief (and hopefully stays that way).
Cubs Thoughts:
Think I probably spelled these out above, but basically:
- Cubs are fine.
- If the Cubs lose, it’s concerning but not damning.
- Scoring a lot of runs today and losing is better than allowing a lot of runs today and losing.
