It was a frustrating weekend on the North Side, at least for the team which calls the North Side home. Jon Lester had a bad start. The offense was impotent. José Abreu was a bad, bad man.
Still, the Cubs are fine. They lead the Central by three games, and while that lead’s far from a safe one, it’s enough to give them a 67.1% chance of winning the division in FanGraphs’ latest odds. The bullpen’s cumulative performance is approaching replacement-level. Ian Happ has been the 15th-best qualified hitter in the MLB, by wRC+.
The Cubs are not more than fine, though. They’re just…fine. The rotation has cooled off. Willson Contreras, David Bote, Nico Hoerner, and—most significantly—Javy Báez have all been below-average at the plate. Kris Bryant has also been below-average, and is now on the Injured List. Happ and Jason Kipnis are unlikely to continue their performance over a full season. And that the bullpen approaching replacement-level signifies progress says a lot about the state of that bullpen.
What to hope for out of these three games in Detroit, then? While a sweep would obviously be nice, the more reasonable goal is, as always, a series win, with the wins preferably coming in easy fashion. The Cubs’ run differential sitting at only +4 is worrisome. The prospect of taking advantage of a weaker foe represents an opportunity to resume looking the part of a pennant contender.
None of the games look easy on paper. This is what happens when your rotation dwindles to having just two full confidence-inspiring arms. That said, though, they’re all winnable. With the Cardinals playing five at home in the next four days against the likes of the Royals and Pirates, it would behoove the Cubs to translate winnability into wins.
