1. This is so much fun.
I’m going to keep saying this if the Cubs keep playing this way, because holy cow is this a blast. Was it their best night offensively? No. But that soft light at Wrigley Field, the crowd going wild, some exciting balls in play, Zach Davies dealing (!!, and yes he got some help but !!), and a series sweep, all on the back of the low expectations and the doomful prognostications and in the midst of the tough schedule and against the Cardinals, specifically…it’s just really fun. Really, really fun.
2. Eric Sogard got a big hit.
He didn’t crush the ball, but he did hit a timely double, and he’s the kind of guy for whom that’s among the desired outcomes. He’s not a power hitter. That’s part of why the Cubs signed him. So credit to Sogard, who’s understandably been a target of impatience in the face of the impending roster crunch (Sergio Alcántara still has the higher [insert offensive stat of your choosing], though).
3. The Cardinals are down bad.
The Cardinals are under .500. Their pitching is a mess. Big relief for them to get such a good outing from Carlos Martínez, but they’re in a tough spot, and they’re behind three teams now, which makes it harder to justify a continued pursuit of the postseason.
This was part of the goal of the series—get the Cardinals out of there. And while it’s far from over, the Cubs did about all they could to accomplish that goal, including pulling back the curtains on John Gant’s struggles on Saturday.
***
Around the Division:
The Brewers did hold on against the Pirates yesterday, so there’s still a tie for first.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
T-1. Milwaukee: 38-27, 58.8%
T-1. Cubs: 38-27, 29.2%
3. Cincinnati: 32-31, 8.2%
4. St. Louis: 32-33, 3.8%
5. Pittsburgh: 23-41, 0.0%
The Brewers host Cincinnati on the front half of this week, with Eric Lauer going against Vladimir Gutierrez tonight. That’s a three-game set. Also three games is the Cardinals’ series with Miami, which begins tonight in St. Louis with Adam Wainwright pitching against Braxton Garrett (rather non-prospect in the Marlins’ system).
Up Next:
Four with the Mets. Who are, all jokes aside, good.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. New York (NL)
When:
6:10 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Citi Field
Weather:
There’s a chance of rain or storms that rises as the game goes on. The wind’s expected to be blowing out towards left at about ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Jake Arrieta vs. David Peterson
The Opponent:
The Mets are banged up. J.D. Davis is out. Michael Conforto is out. Brandon Nimmo is out. And that’s without getting into the rotation, where Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard have yet to make it off the 60-Day IL this year. The tide does seem to be receding with these injuries—there are only six guys on the 10-Day IL right now (six on the 60-Day as well, though), which is lower than it was for a bit there, and Jeff McNeil, Albert Almora Jr. (hey!), and Dellin Betances are all on rehab assignments and could therefore return sometime soon, but I’m not sure how soon. Long story short, the Cubs aren’t catching the Mets at 100%.
That said, the Mets are good. They’re ahead of the Brewers in run differential, they’re just two games back of the Cubs in the National League standings, and they just took the seven-game season series from the Padres over the last week and a half.
David Peterson had a bad time against the Cubs back in April, though his defense was responsible for a lot of that. His last two times out have been disasters, with him yielding a combined nine runs over just three innings of work while walking four and striking out just four. As such, his ERA stands at 6.32, and his xERA’s at 5.83, and FIP’s more sympathetic but even FIP’s at 4.92, which is hardly above replacement-level. It’s possible the Cubs are catching him at a good time, and even his average so far has been rather favorable for opposing hitters.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +105 underdogs, with the Mets at -115. So the win probability’s around 46% or 47%. The over/under’s at nine right now and favors the under.
Cubs News:
I neglected to mention this yesterday, but Dakota Chalmers cleared waivers, so he’s still in the organization. Elsewhere, the Cubs announced Arrieta as tonight’s starter and Alec Mills as the starter tomorrow night. No word yet on Wednesday, but it would pretty much have to be Trevor Williams or a bullpen game, since Kohl Stewart and Cory Abbott are stuck in Iowa unless someone else goes on the IL, and there isn’t another actively pitching starting pitcher on the 40-man roster.
There’s a bit of a stir again today because Jason Heyward said he isn’t vaccinated against the coronavirus, but didn’t we already know that?
Cubs Thoughts:
Our reasonable goal for the end of June was 45-36, something that would now require going just 7-9 over the rest of the month. That’s still possibly reasonable, but let’s bump it up to 46-35. 92-win pace. Eleven games over .500 at the halfway point. Presumably within a game or two of the Brewers, who get to play the Rockies and Diamondbacks for a combined ten straight between this Reds series and the set with the Cubs at the end of the month. The path to that 46-35 mark looks like this:
New York/Los Angeles: 3-5
Cleveland/Milwaukee: 3-2
Miami: 2-1
It’s going to be hard to split this series with the Mets. The Cubs are scheduled to face Jacob deGrom on Wednesday. They should be underdogs tomorrow with Alec Mills on the mound. They should be underdogs on Thursday with Kyle Hendricks going opposite Marcus Stroman. The Dodgers series will also be hard to split. Even the Marlins series is going to be tough, with it looking like two of the starters will be Pablo López and Trevor Rogers.
That said, the Cubs keep raising expectations for themselves. They have a better record and a healthier roster than the Mets. They’ve beaten the Dodgers before (thrice). The Marlins, good pitching and all, kind of stink. Regardless, tonight’s the most winnable of these next four, so it’d be a good one to notch.
Expect Craig Kimbrel to be unavailable both tonight and tomorrow after three straight appearances. Expect Ryan Tepera to possibly be unavailable tonight after his high-leverage performance last night.
