It’s hard to say how well vaccination is going in the United States. We don’t have a baseline for this sort of thing. Ten days ago, the CDC said 2.7% of the American population had received at least the first dose of the vaccine. Today, that number, per CDC data (which is timestamped at yesterday morning), is up to 3.8%. If we continue to increase the number of those vaccinated by 1.1 percentage points every ten days, everyone in the nation would be fully vaccinated by the end of May, having received their first dose by no later than April 20th.
Of course, we won’t have everyone in the country fully vaccinated by the end of May. Some will refuse to take the vaccine. Some won’t be able to. But that’s generally the pace we seem to be working with, though it’s possible—given this data has to filter its way up through the states before popping into the easily digestible CDC accounting—that the number could be higher and the pace could be slower (basically, there’s likely at least some lag between state reporting and CDC data, and if the CDC closed that lag over the last ten days, it would misleadingly inflate our perception of the speed with which vaccines are being administered).
Still, that’s an encouraging timeline. And there’s further encouragement right now too, as the spread of the coronavirus appears to be dramatically lessening. Here are two graphs The Dispatch sends out daily that I find tell the story rather well:
The decreasing number of daily new cases is hugely encouraging, especially because it hasn’t been accompanied by a significant reduction in testing. That daily deaths have dropped in recent days as well, and that hospitalizations have slightly declined, is likewise encouraging. Yes, we’re still at levels that are among the worst we’ve seen since this all began, but those levels are at least headed in the right direction, implying we have an opportunity here—if we put our foot (or keep our foot) on the masking and social distancing gas—to get this thing as under control as it’s been since summer, if not ever, sparing thousands upon thousands of lives by buying those at highest risk the time necessary to await their vaccination.
I am not an expert. I am not an epidemiologist or public health official. But there seems to be cause for cautious optimism here, even in the face of the enormous challenges distributing the vaccines poses.
Be careful. Be diligent. Be a little optimistic.
Here are the CDC’s reported vaccination rates by state, with D.C. and the country as a whole included. Well done so far, West Virginia.
| State/DC/USA | Fully Vaccinated | Received First Dose |
| West Virginia | 1.8% | 5.8% |
| Alaska | 1.7% | 6.4% |
| District of Columbia | 1.6% | 4.4% |
| North Dakota | 1.3% | 5.1% |
| New Mexico | 1.3% | 4.6% |
| South Dakota | 1.2% | 4.9% |
| Hawaii | 1.1% | 3.4% |
| Rhode Island | 1.1% | 3.5% |
| Vermont | 1.0% | 4.8% |
| Indiana | 1.0% | 3.8% |
| Missouri | 1.0% | 2.4% |
| Colorado | 0.9% | 4.2% |
| Montana | 0.9% | 3.7% |
| Tennessee | 0.9% | 3.7% |
| Maine | 0.9% | 4.1% |
| Illinois | 0.9% | 2.7% |
| Arkansas | 0.9% | 3.9% |
| Oklahoma | 0.9% | 4.9% |
| Nebraska | 0.8% | 4.1% |
| Louisiana | 0.8% | 4.4% |
| Minnesota | 0.8% | 3.0% |
| Michigan | 0.8% | 3.8% |
| Connecticut | 0.8% | 5.7% |
| New Hampshire | 0.8% | 4.4% |
| Pennsylvania | 0.8% | 3.2% |
| California | 0.7% | 2.6% |
| Delaware | 0.7% | 3.5% |
| Washington | 0.7% | 3.3% |
| Texas | 0.7% | 3.9% |
| USA | 0.7% | 3.8% |
| Massachusetts | 0.7% | 3.8% |
| South Carolina | 0.7% | 2.7% |
| Idaho | 0.6% | 2.7% |
| North Carolina | 0.6% | 3.2% |
| New York | 0.6% | 4.5% |
| Nevada | 0.6% | 2.4% |
| Kansas | 0.6% | 3.2% |
| Wyoming | 0.6% | 3.8% |
| Oregon | 0.6% | 4.0% |
| Arizona | 0.6% | 3.0% |
| New Jersey | 0.6% | 3.7% |
| Wisconsin | 0.6% | 3.0% |
| Iowa | 0.5% | 3.9% |
| Utah | 0.5% | 4.6% |
| Florida | 0.5% | 4.7% |
| Virginia | 0.5% | 3.3% |
| Maryland | 0.5% | 3.6% |
| Alabama | 0.4% | 2.5% |
| Mississippi | 0.4% | 3.8% |
| Georgia | 0.4% | 3.4% |
| Kentucky | 0.4% | 4.5% |
| Ohio | 0.3% | 3.6% |
