Lane 1 – SEC Champion: Open
Lane 2 –One-Loss Big Ten Champion: Open
Lane 3 – Second SEC Bid: Open
Lane 4 – One-Loss Pac-12 Champion: Closed
Lane 5 – One-Loss Big 12 Champion: Open
Lane 6 – One-Loss ACC Champion: Closed
Lane 7 – Undefeated Cincinnati: Open
Lane 8 – 11-1 Michigan: Closed
Lane 9: 11-1 Notre Dame: Open
We’re down from nine lanes to six, and I don’t know how the last six stack up, and those who are telling you they know probably don’t actually know. Are there lanes beyond these six? Sure. But they’re deep enough in the shadows that trying to unravel scenarios in which they come into play gets complicated fast.
The big news from the weekend was that Utah crushed Oregon, liberating the College Football Playoff committee from their odd decision to rank the Ducks ahead of Ohio State (and a number of other teams) and seemingly closing the Pac-12 lane for yet another year. The other big news was that Clemson handled Wake Forest with ease, seemingly closing the ACC lane for the first time ever just one year after the conference sent two teams to the final four (and none to the national championship). The final big news was that Ohio State obliterated Michigan State, demonstrating rather forcefully that the Buckeyes are one of the three best teams in the country while also closing that tiny little lane where Michigan and Michigan State could each finish with just one loss. Michigan can finish 12-1 now; Michigan can finish 11-2 now; Michigan cannot finish 11-1, and the Big Ten cannot get two one-loss teams.
The medium news from the weekend was that Oklahoma and Oklahoma State both won, with Oklahoma State looking dominant defensively as they held Texas Tech to just ten first downs and hardly a hundred yards of offense. We’d been ready for either or both to lose. Neither did, and the Big 12 is suddenly a much bigger factor than before, possibly just needing a sweep from one team or the other over these last two weeks to get a team in the field (if Oklahoma State wins, they play Baylor in the Big 12 Championship; if Oklahoma wins, it’s Bedlam Round 2).
The smaller news from the weekend was that Notre Dame, Michigan, and Cincinnati all dominated while Alabama was never really in trouble against Arkansas but still only won by one score. We’re left with eight teams (Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Michigan, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma) occupying six lanes (the ones listed above as open), with real potential for four of the six closing over the next twelve days (There will be an SEC Champion, Notre Dame will likely get to 11-1, beyond that there are plenty of potential twists).
Where does our model see things? Well, let’s show its output first, then talk about things. Here’s where it expects tomorrow’s rankings to land:
| Expected Ranking | LW Ranking | Team | Est. Ranking Score | FPA | Expected Ranking w/o FPA |
| 1 | 1 | Georgia | 100.0 | 0.0 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | Cincinnati | 93.0 | 2.9 | 6 |
| 3 | 6 | Michigan | 92.7 | 1.9 | 3 |
| 4 | 2 | Alabama | 92.6 | 1.9 | 4 |
| 5 | 4 | Ohio State | 92.2 | -1.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 8 | Notre Dame | 88.8 | -1.4 | 5 |
| 7 | 9 | Oklahoma State | 88.5 | 1.0 | 7 |
| 8 | 3 | Oregon | 85.2 | 7.5 | 18 |
| 9 | 11 | Baylor | 84.3 | 0.2 | 10 |
| 10 | 7 | Michigan State | 82.4 | 0.5 | 11 |
| 11 | 13 | Oklahoma | 80.2 | -4.6 | 9 |
| 12 | 12 | Mississippi | 80.2 | 1.8 | 15 |
| 13 | 14 | BYU | 80.0 | 0.8 | 13 |
| 14 | 15 | Wisconsin | 78.2 | -1.6 | 12 |
| 15 | 23 | Utah | 78.0 | 0.3 | 17 |
| 16 | NR | Louisiana-Lafayette | 77.6 | -0.6 | 16 |
| 17 | 17 | Iowa | 76.4 | -2.7 | 14 |
| 18 | 20 | NC State | 76.3 | 1.4 | 25 |
| 19 | 16 | Texas A&M | 76.3 | 4.5 | 27 |
| 20 | 18 | Pittsburgh | 76.1 | -0.6 | 21 |
| 21 | 19 | San Diego State | 76.1 | -0.3 | 23 |
| 22 | NR | Clemson | 75.9 | -0.8 | 22 |
| 23 | NR | Appalachian State | 74.5 | 0.0 | 26 |
| 24 | NR | Purdue | 74.4 | -1.4 | 24 |
| 25 | 22 | UTSA | 74.1 | -11.0 | 8 |
| NR | 24 | Houston | 74.0 | -3.4 | 19 |
| NR | 10 | Wake Forest | 74.0 | -3.4 | 20 |
| NR | 25 | Mississippi State | 73.2 | 3.8 | 29 |
| NR | 21 | Arkansas | 72.7 | 4.5 | 31 |
Our model, looking at tomorrow’s rankings, is wrong. Cincinnati won’t be ranked second. Michigan won’t be ranked third. Alabama won’t be ranked fourth, Ohio State won’t be ranked fifth, Louisiana-Lafayette won’t be ranked 16th, etc. etc. etc. So many places where it’s wrong. I would hope you are asking, “Why is this model so wrong?”
There are three answers.
First, the model is built to project the final four teams correctly after all games in consideration have been played. It is not built to accurately project the post-Week 12 rankings based on the season’s rankings to date and games played through Week 12. We’d like to add that post-Week 12 accuracy as a capability, but we need to do a lot more research into how sticky FPA is and when it is and isn’t sticky before we can accomplish that goal.
Second, as we’ve been saying, it’s a tight race! Look how close Cincinnati, Michigan, Alabama, and Ohio State’s scores are. Each are within their FPA’s of one another, and if you take Notre Dame’s negative FPA away (a byproduct of them being held behind a troubling Michigan State), the Irish are right there too. It’s tight right now, and our model assumes no stickiness, and the difference between the committee ranking Louisiana-Lafayette 16th and not ranking Louisiana-Lafayette at all is rather arbitrary.
Third, well, this is the big one:
The committee changes its mind. Frequently. It has to, if it’s going to keep the rankings any sort of stable. Look at what happened this week: Utah smoked Oregon, turning an Ohio State loss from unsightly to embarrassing, but earlier in the day, Ohio State walloped Michigan State, making themselves look great and making Michigan look worse. Michigan, though, has that huge win over Wisconsin, which is surging through the rankings, and they just won by 41 against a Maryland team that’s one win at Rutgers away from making a bowl game out of the Big Ten. Tasked with viewing this all from scratch, our model thinks Ohio State would be ranked second, but having seen Ohio State held back by the Oregon loss for weeks, it assumes the committee thinks lowly of the Buckeyes, something one wouldn’t exactly expect to improve Ohio State’s lot right after Oregon got thrashed. There’s an inherent inconsistency in what the committee’s about to do, which is to flip from saying Oregon was a great team based off of one result to saying Oregon is a middling team but that it’s ok to have lost to them at home. That word, inconsistency, is apt, because while the inconsistency from the committee is of the logic variety, it’s coming in an effort to account for inconsistency of the performance variety from teams like Ohio State and Michigan.
Anyway, the top six should be what you expect. In fact, the top seven should be what you expect. After that, the big question is where Oklahoma lands, and whether there’s any flip between Ohio State and Alabama. Because Oklahoma is two winnable wins away from occupying a traditional playoff spot (they might be top-ten wins, too), and if every game from here goes chalk we’re looking at a playoff picture consisting of two teams that are in (Georgia, Ohio State) and four with believable claims for two spots (11-2 Alabama, 13-0 Cincinnati, 12-1 Oklahoma State or Oklahoma, 11-1 Notre Dame). If this comes to pass, it’s going to be the hardest decision the committee’s had to make, especially because any oddsmaker or ratings system of good repute will tell you Alabama’s something like a touchdown better than anyone in the country not named Georgia or Ohio State.
Our model might finally get a team wrong.
But we’re still two weeks away from that.
This week’s games, plus what’s to come:
Big 12
Not only did Oklahoma and Oklahoma State win, but Baylor triumphed as a narrow underdog at Kansas State, and did so without much trouble. The Bears make the Big 12 Championship by beating Texas Tech at home on Saturday and seeing Oklahoma lose to Oklahoma State in Stillwater. That game’s about a tossup right now.
Elsewhere in the Big 12, Kansas fell at TCU on a last-minute field goal while Texas lost at West Virginia to cement bowl ineligibility.
Big Ten
How in the hell did Michigan lose to Michigan State? On the one hand, you could say Ohio State could have taken mercy and let their foot off the gas a little when the game in East Lansing got out of hand. On the other, you could note that Ohio State was up 35 points before the game was a third of the way over. It was 49-0 at halftime. Normally, letting off the gas is not so clear an option so early in a game against a…top-ten team. Kirby Smart better start game-planning for the Buckeyes. Meanwhile, Michigan torched Maryland while Wisconsin held off Nebraska in Madison.
Next week, in addition to Ohio State/Michigan (it’s in Ann Arbor this year), Iowa visits Nebraska while Wisconsin visits Minnesota. Wisconsin currently holds serve in the Big Ten West, but if they lose, it goes to Iowa, and if Iowa also loses, I’ll actually need to check on that but for the record, Purdue hosts Indiana and they, like Minnesota, are just one game back of the Badgers and Hawkeyes.
Pac-12
Washington State smoked Arizona and Oregon State handled Arizona State with surprising ease, setting up a world in which if each wins this weekend (the Apple Cup’s on Friday, Oregon State plays Oregon on Saturday), there’s a three-way tie atop the North. As with the Big Ten West, look for information on this in a post in the coming days. In the South, it’s Utah’s world, officially. They’ll host Colorado on Friday to close out the regular season.
ACC
Clemson won by three touchdowns against Wake Forest, which is exactly what we all expected in August but was noteworthy on Saturday. Sometimes, the original truth is truer. NC State beat Syracuse, so they, like Clemson, can still win the Atlantic with some breaks next weekend. NC State hosts UNC on Friday. Wake visits Boston College on Saturday. Clemson is playing a nonconference game (against South Carolina). NC State and Clemson trail the Demon Deacons by a loss, with NC State holding the head-to-head over each of their potential tie-mates.
Pitt beat Virginia to clinch the Coastal. They visit Syracuse on Saturday.
SEC
Alabama’s really good, but they’ve now won two of their last three games by just one score each, against LSU and Arkansas, one of whom might miss a bowl and the other of which might be unranked tomorrow night. The “choose the best teams” instruction the committee received might be a big problem if Alabama loses to Georgia in two weeks and it isn’t especially close. It would help the Tide’s case if they can beat up Auburn on Saturday on the Plains. That looks rather doable after Auburn lost its third straight this weekend, falling at South Carolina, which has snuck its way to bowl eligibility.
Mizzou beat Florida, which is noteworthy because Florida is now just 5-6 and has now fired Dan Mullen. What a turn from when they hung with Bama in September.
You may be asking, now, why we think Alabama’s so good if they have these three noteworthy close wins. It’s a fair question. Consider, though, that Alabama has beaten Mississippi by three touchdowns, and Tennessee by four, and Mississippi State by upwards of five. That’s not even mentioning Miami. Might they be inconsistent? Yes. Who isn’t. But they’re still good. They’re still Alabama. And as hard as the committee can try not to know it, they know.
Georgia visits Georgia Tech on Saturday. The Egg Bowl is Thursday night.
Cincinnati and Notre Dame
The Rust Belt’s favorite soft alliance had an impressive weekend, with Cincinnati beating SMU by 34 points right around the time Notre Dame beat Georgia Tech by 55. Houston, a big potential chip for the Bearcats, took care of Memphis on Friday night by two touchdowns and a half, and now just has to visit UConn, meaning they should enter the AAC title game ranked, which could be important. Cincinnati visits East Carolina, who’s dangerous. Notre Dame visits Stanford, who beat Oregon and is now just 3-8.
UTSA, San Diego State, and the Sun Belt
UTSA pulled past UAB late. San Diego State survived suddenly tricky UNLV. Louisiana-Lafayette has just one loss, and Appalachian State has just two, and those came to each other, Texas, and Miami, which isn’t a terrible résumé. Keep an eye out for the Cajuns around the edge of the rankings. Take note of the fact the Sun Belt Championship will feature two pretty darn good teams.
UTSA visits North Texas on Saturday, trying to get to 12-0. San Diego State hosts Boise State, trying to hold onto their one-loss status.
Sorry, other Group of Fives. No love here this week.
***
Again, the big things to watch for tomorrow night are 1) whether Ohio State passes Michigan, and 2) how close Oklahoma gets to Oklahoma State and Baylor. Six lanes currently appear open. How four of them stack up with each other is open for debate. What a debate it will be.
