First off, apologies for saying that yesterday was Keegan Thompson’s return to the rotation when it’s today? When I clearly knew that wasn’t the case? I don’t know how I did that. Goodness, Joe.
Anyway, I talked a lot about Thompson yesterday, you can read it here, let’s talk about Patrick Wisdom because he was yesterday’s brightest spot.
With yesterday’s home run, Wisdom has 19 on the year, which with his 246 plate appearances is at least a 40-home run pace. Remarkable. He’s also got a solid 124 wRC+, which has made him worth 1.6 fWAR as he’s been exactly average defensively, by FanGraphs’s measurement.
The 124 wRC+ is good. Solid stuff, the kind of thing you’re happy to get from your third baseman. Among the nineteen guys who show up as qualified under the third baseman tab on FanGraphs, Wisdom’s been a more successful hitter than all but six. Justin Turner, Rafael Devers, Austin Riley, José Ramírez, and Kris Bryant have been better than him. He’s been better than Yoan Moncada, Nolan Arenado, Kyle Seager, and Matt Chapman (among others). Manny Machado and he have the same wRC+.
At the same time, though, Wisdom’s xwOBA is only better than those of five of those nineteen guys. He’s been having good luck on balls in play. Really good luck. He’s not quite at the xwOBA league average. That’s troubling.
It’s hard to post positive offensive statistics when you’re striking out 39% of the time. It’s hard to maintain a .345 BABIP. Wisdom might be able to do it, but the more likely scenario is that he won’t. Hopefully he does. The Cubs could use him. But if he flops a bit these next six weeks, it might actually be a good thing, because the worst-case scenario for the Cubs is probably to commit to him as an everyday starter for next year and to have him perform below the league average at the dish.
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Draft Watch:
The Cubs passed the Royals in the draft order with yesterday’s loss, and passed the Nationals as well. They now hold the sixth overall pick, half a game past Washington and Kansas City and two and a half off of Miami for fifth.
The Diaspora:
Jorge Soler homered in another Atlanta victory. He’s got only an 89 wRC+. Kyle Schwarber singled, doubled, and walked twice in his four trips to the plate for Boston. Craig Kimbrel allowed a run in the eighth inning last night, getting pulled before getting out of it only to see a runner he’d left on base score. Ryan Tepera locked down the extra-inning save for the White Sox, entering the eleventh with the runner on second base and keeping him there.
Around the Division:
The Reds are now tied with the Padres for the last playoff spot in the NL. I missed this the other day, but the Brewers put Freddy Peralta on the IL with shoulder inflammation. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Brewers were extra-cautious with him, given their place in the standings and his importance to their October hopes. Still, you’d rather have him healthy if you were the Brewers. Miles Mikolas returned for the Cardinals yesterday, allowing two runs while walking two and striking out five across five innings of work.
Up Next:
Game 2
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Kansas City
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Chance of rain, temperatures in the 80’s, wind blowing out to left and/or center at about ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Keegan Thompson vs. Kris Bubic
The Opponent:
Bubic started the year strong, but it’s been a rough go of it since. FanGraphs’s 104th-ranked prospect when he debuted last year, the lefty was at a 3.54 FIP and 1.52 ERA (!!) through his first 29.2 innings of work, before things unraveled. He’s now at a 6.03 FIP and a 5.09 ERA, and has been worth -0.6 fWAR, which does not make him the least valuable player in the league but was bad enough to make me look.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -115 favorites, the Royals are at -105, that’s about a 51% chance of winning. Over/under’s at 9½ and is considering leaning towards the under.
Cubs News:
Haven’t seen much of note.
Cubs Thoughts:
Hopefully Thompson deals. That’d feel great.
