Sorry, we’re late on the posts today. The NIT is happening! Here’s that bracketology. Now. The other one.
We updated our NCAA Tournament bracketology this morning as well. For those of you who’ve been keeping track, we got the MAAC to almost-finalized, so we’re making progress on that front. Nobody moved in or out today, and nobody moved more than one seed line, but Iowa did beat Ohio State, moving the former close to the 2-line and the latter down onto the 2-line, with Alabama currently projected to take the final 1-seed.
Our understanding of the top teams in college basketball is always interesting. It’s often temporary, tied to polls that heavily weight recency, but bracketologies provide some stability. We don’t pay attention to projected 1-seeds so much because that place in the bracket is hugely more advantageous than a 2-seed slot (it is more advantageous—just not hugely) as we pay attention to them because they’re our best reflection of who really are the best college basketball teams, by measure of what they’ve done and what we expect them to do.
There’s always stratification at the top, like there is at the tails of many bell curves, but this year’s has been fairly static. For a long time, it was Gonzaga and Baylor together, then everybody else. Then, it became Gonzaga, then Baylor, then everybody else. From there, it became Gonzaga, then Baylor, then Michigan, then everybody else. Today, it’s Gonzaga, then Michigan and Baylor, then everybody else—and that could change real fast.
Gonzaga, Baylor, and Michigan are, for what it’s worth, each very likely to receive a 1-seed. It’s hard to find a loss bad enough in the WCC Tournament to take down Gonzaga. Michigan will have its chances but would have to flop a couple times. Baylor’s helped by the Big 12’s depth. So, let’s focus on the “everybody else.” Here are the candidates for the final 1-seed, in the order our model lines up their median seeding:
Alabama
We talked about the Crimson Tide on Saturday. They’re a good team with a great defense and a fun coach, and they’ve got the clearest path of anyone on this list, with only Auburn and Georgia between them and the SEC Tournament and a reasonably high probability (29.7%) of winning that version of the conference title. They don’t have the topline wins some of these others have (their best is having beaten Tennessee in Knoxville). They have a few early-season losses to NIT teams (Stanford, Western Kentucky). But if they finish 24-6, and these others don’t put something together…it might be theirs. In fact, as of today in our model’s projection, it is theirs.
Ohio State
The Buckeyes just dropped down this morning after losing their third straight (what a league the Big Ten is right now—lose your third straight and only then drop off the top line). That loss to Northwestern stings the Buckeyes, as do the ones at Minnesota and Michigan State, but they beat Iowa in Iowa City, Illinois in Champaign, and they’ve got an 8-5 record against likely tournament teams. Their path isn’t clear like Alabama’s, but it’s simple: Beat Illinois next weekend, then get to the Big Ten Championship. That might not be enough. But it should be enough.
Illinois
Speaking of Illinois, the Illini are right on OSU’s heels. They don’t have the bad losses these other teams have, but the rest of their path doesn’t look as promising, and they’ve got a poorer overall record, which has an effect even though they played a tough schedule (nonconference opponents included Baylor, Missouri, and Duke—for whatever Duke’s worth this year). They do, though, like Ohio State, control their destiny in a way Alabama and the rest of these teams don’t.
West Virginia
The Mountaineers would probably require some help, but their résumé, at a high level, isn’t that different from those Big Ten ones. They almost beat Gonzaga in the game where we all thought Jalen Suggs got hurt. They haven’t lost to a non-tournament team. They just lack the big-deal wins. Their premier victories came in Austin and at home against Kansas. Not quite like winning in Columbus or Ann Arbor or Champaign or Iowa City this year. If they beat Baylor tomorrow? That changes things. But even that doesn’t shoe them up to the front.
Houston
There was some debate about ending the list after Illinois, and again after West Virginia. Houston’s a longshot, moreso than their position might at first indicate because our model expects them to win out. They just can’t really better that résumé compared to our expectations. It is full. Expect them to lose ground in reflective bracketologies.
Iowa
The last Big Ten contender (sorry, Wisconsin). The Hawkeyes are electric at times, and Luka Garza’s an incredible college basketball player. But Iowa probably has to win the Big Ten Tournament to get back to being a 1-seed, or they need to get some help from those above them. That Ohio State win yesterday was enormous, but it was also novel. Winning at Wisconsin should command similar respect, but Wisconsin’s got such a big gap between ability and résumé that it doesn’t. Iowa probably doesn’t control its fate. It needs some good opponents next week if it’s gonna find the top line. It’ll probably get them, but that’s not fully in its control.
Arkansas
Hear me out. If the Razorbacks win out…actually, this is probably more like Houston. Even if Arkansas trounces through the SEC Tournament and beats Alabama in the championship, there just probably isn’t enough there to pass Ohio State and Illinois. They’ve got a great résumé. Eric Musselman, like Nate Oats, is a ton of fun. But the SEC’s bottom half just doesn’t provide opportunities like those of other leagues. And Arkansas, frankly, isn’t as good as these Big Ten teams we’re discussing.
Florida State/Villanova
I’m lumping them together because they’re next to each other and the situations are similar: Each is a decently sizable conference tournament favorite. Each has at least one terrible loss, and neither has the best of opponents lined up from here out. It’s possible, but it’s more like Arkansas than anyone else.
Kansas
The Jayhawks made it happen against Baylor on Saturday, finishing the Big 12 season 12-6. They have no bad losses, they’ve beaten Texas Tech in Lubbock to go with the victory over Baylor, and…they’re still just kind of underwhelming. They lost two of their three biggest nonconference games. Baylor’s at risk of falling apart and making KU’s win just ‘great’ and not ‘mind-blowing’. The Big 12 tournament offers enough opportunities that this might work out, but it’s a real longshot that would require some real help.
BYU
And finally…yes. Seriously. Our model is high on BYU, but our model’s impressed by those wins at San Diego State and Utah State. Our model likes the sweep of Saint Mary’s. Our model likes that their only loss to a non-tournament team came on the road, and was at least against a decent team in WCC context in Pepperdine.
But what really gives BYU a chance? Well, they’d need a ton of help. They’d need a wildcard to win the SEC, and they’d need Illinois and Ohio State to trip on their own feet. But they also still have Gonzaga theoretically on the schedule. Gonzaga. On the schedule. So I’m saying there’s a chance for two WCC 1-seeds. A small one, but a chance. That would be something.
***
Only one conference tournament in action yesterday: The A-East. Here are the updated probabilities there, with the Big South, who resumes tonight, below it:
Vermont: 48.5%
UMBC: 40.7%
Hartford: 6.3%
UMass-Lowell: 4.5%
Winthrop: 66.3%
Radford: 12.3%
Gardner-Webb: 7.8%
UNC-Asheville: 6.1%
Campbell: 4.6%
Longwood: 2.2%
High Point: 0.5%
Hampton: 0.3%
Vermont and UMBC slip a little as upsets fail to materialize. The Big South still belongs to Winthrop until they behave otherwise.
