The tier thing, useful as it may be in blogging, has been overdone, so, uh…let’s call these blocs.
Major League Baseball, what to expect (playoff probability and World Series probability, per FanGraphs, in parentheses):
The Favorite Bloc
Los Angeles (98.4%, 22.2%)
New York-AL (90.9%, 17.6%)
The Dodgers are the defending champions, arguably got a little bit better, and could theoretically hold up better than prior champions by coming off of a shortened season, thereby making their own short offseason less impactful.
The Yankees, as they have for the last few years, have the pieces. But they’ve got a deeper division to contend with, and their roster just isn’t quite on par with that of LA.
The Bloc on the Rise
New York-NL (81.5%, 11.2%)
San Diego (92.3%, 11.0%)
The Mets loaded up this offseason, adding Francisco Lindor while regaining Marcus Stroman, who opted out in 2020. Alongside them here are the Padres, who are still young and still improving and still fun.
The Good-Not-Great Bloc
Houston (69.5%, 6.6%)
Atlanta (63.7%, 5.3%)
Minnesota (62.7%, 5.3%)
There are reasons to feel bad about each of these teams: Houston’s pitching, Atlanta’s proximity to Queens, Minnesota’s eternal curse. But they’re each solid—just a piece or two away from contention. And those pieces may be already rostered, and just lying in wait.
The Hypeful Bloc
Toronto (54.3%, 3.7%)
Chicago-AL (46.8%, 2.9%)
Betting markets seem to love the White Sox, which implies media loves the White Sox, because after Eloy Jiménez’s injury, it’s hard to see the South Siders as a better team than Minnesota.
Toronto is in a better spot (as these percentages reflect), but they’re a year or two behind the Padres on the youthful curve, with more that could go wrong.
The Optimistic Bloc
Anaheim (40.3%, 2.3%)
Milwaukee (42.4%, 1.9%)
Boston (37.5%, 1.9%)
Oakland (33.1%, 1.5%)
Each of these teams has either been in contention recently or employs Mike Trout, which goes to say that each of these teams has the pieces to make things happen. They’re a ways away, but most of the ingredients are there, and one would guess each would chase a title if a title appeared chaseable.
The Bloc Where It’s Possible
St. Louis (29.1%, 1.1%)
Tampa Bay (25.5%, 1.1%)
Cleveland (24.7%, 0.9%)
Washington (22.0%, 0.9%)
Chicago-NL (23.4%, 0.8%)
Cincinnati (22.2%, 0.7%)
Philadelphia (16.4%, 0.6%)
It wouldn’t turn many heads if one or more of these seven found themselves in a pennant race. But more likely than not, each will be selling come July.
The Bloc Where It Probably Isn’t Possible
Kansas City (9.4%, 0.3%)
San Francisco (5.7%, 0.1%)
Seattle (3.0%, 0.0%)
Arizona (1.6%, 0.0%)
Detroit (1.3%, 0.0%)
Miami (0.9%, 0.0%)
Texas (0.7%, 0.0%)
Pittsburgh (0.4%, 0.0%)
Baltimore (0.1%, 0.0%)
Colorado (0.1%, 0.0%)
Never say never…but if you’re ever going to, it’s here. And yes, the defending NL Wild Card Series Champion Miami Marlins fall into this category. Chalk that up to divisional turmoil and a good two months.
