It’s easy to make too much of a single series in baseball, an issue compounded by the fact baseball itself makes so much of single series come October. The Marlins swept a Nationals team over four games this weekend, and the Nationals had been playing better, and no one outside of the specifically Marlins-interested is too hung up on what this means about the quality of Miami’s professional baseball team. Still, it’s hard not to have a big reaction to the Braves taking three of four in Los Angeles, hardly ever trailing and only going down in the finale when Bobby Miller turned in arguably the best start of his young career. In this case, it might be reasonable. Because what Atlanta did—in addition to building a six-game lead on LA which will likely cement their home-field advantage throughout the playoffs—was a display of might not unlike a military parade. Ronald Acuña Jr. homered three times. Marcell Ozuna reached base in half his plate appearances. Max Fried struck out ten. And it wasn’t even like Atlanta played all that great. Spencer Strider allowed four earned runs. Matt Olson and Austin Riley went a combined 6-for-35. There’s probably some psychological angle where the Dodgers now have confirmation they can get to Strider, and maybe there’s some gameplanning validation with Olson and Riley, but by and large, the Braves demonstrated why they are so good: They have a large share of the best players in baseball. More than even the Dodgers have.
The other big development this weekend was that we now enjoy, effectively, a four-way tie for the final playoff spot in the National League. That Marlins surge might not say a ton about the Marlins, but it combines with bad weekends for the Diamondbacks and Giants to put the three tied at 70 wins and 67 losses, with the Reds percentage points behind at 71–68. It’s a race, and the AL isn’t too different, with four teams separated by two and a half games in a competition for two playoff spots, one of which comes with a bye to the Division Series. Let’s get to the action.
The Stars
Adolis García was a big, bad man yesterday, avoiding his fifth strikeout by crushing a walkoff home run off Josh Winder to save the Rangers from a sweep by the Twins. Overall, though? A bad weekend for Texas, with Minnesota rallying off of Aroldis Chapman again on Saturday after beating up Jordan Montgomery in the early innings. Worst, Max Scherzer exited Friday’s start a little early due to some forearm tightness, which the Rangers are saying is nothing but is always going to provoke a lot of concern, mostly because of the affiliation between the word “forearm” and Tommy John surgery.
Jasson Domínguez was also a bad man, homering twice in his debut series for the Yankees. Called “the Zion Williamson of baseball” by FanGraphs, Domínguez was a massive acquisition in international free agency back at the age of 16, and with New York sweeping the Astros, he’s a breath of optimism in the Bronx after a terrible second half to the season.
Luis Arraez keyed that Marlins sweep, notching multiple hits in all four games and going a combined 10-for-18 on the weekend. His average is up to .356, 15 points higher than the second-best, Corey Seager, and 21 points up on Freddie Freeman for the NL batting title.
Steven Kwan was a hero for the Guardians, tying the game on a two-out single in the ninth on Saturday and then winning it in the eleventh with a walkoff sac fly. The Guardians took their series from the Rays, keeping the gap with the Twins at five games ahead of the teams’ final meeting of the year this week in Cleveland.
Cubs rookie Javier Assad had the best start of the weekend, going eight scoreless innings on Saturday while walking just one. It was a game the Cubs ultimately lost, but they split the series to maintain their margin on the Reds and gain ground on their other Wild Card pursuers.
The Series
From the AL perspective:
- The Orioles took two of three from the Diamondbacks.
- The Rays dropped two of three to the Guardians.
- The Mariners fell to the Mets, losing two of three.
- The Astros were swept by the Yankees.
- The Twins took two of three from the Rangers.
- The Blue Jays won two of three against the Rockies in Colorado.
- The Red Sox rallied from a Friday-night blowout to take two of three from the Royals.
The NL:
- Atlanta won three of four in Los Angeles.
- The Brewers won two of three over the Phillies.
- The Cubs and Reds split a four-game set.
- The Diamondbacks dropped two of three to the Orioles.
- The Giants lost three of four against the Padres.
- The Marlins swept their four games against the Nationals.
The Situation
In the competitive divisions:
- The Astros dropped a game on both the Rangers and Mariners, giving Seattle a one-game lead over both Houston and Texas, though they lead Houston by two in the loss column.
- The Rays lost a game to the Orioles, now trailing by two and a half.
- The Cubs lost half a game on the Brewers, now sitting 3.5 games back.
- The Guardians and Twins stayed even, five games apart.
For the Wild Cards:
- The Blue Jays and Red Sox gained a game apiece on the Astros and Rangers. Houston and Texas are effectively tied for the fifth and sixth AL playoff spots, with Toronto 1.5 back and Boston 5.5 behind.
- The Marlins gained three games on the Giants, two and a half on the Diamondbacks, and 2.5 on the Reds to create that effective four-way tie for the final NL playoff spot. The Cubs are three ahead of them for the 5-seed, with the Phillies holding the 4-seed, 5.5 up on the quartet.
Here’s where that leaves the broader playoff picture:
American League
- Fighting for the 1-seed (>99% playoff-likely): Baltimore, Tampa Bay
- Division Favorites (>90%): Minnesota
- Looking Good (>75%): Seattle, Houston
- Fighting for the 6-seed (>45%): Texas, Toronto
- Competing: Boston, Cleveland
No elimination for the Red Sox and Guardians this weekend, with each doing enough to remain in the conversation. Boston goes to St. Petersburg this week for three against the Rays while the Guardians host the Twins for three big games of their own.
Atop the league, while the Rays are dealing with the Red Sox, the Orioles have a nice chance to create some separation, visiting Anaheim for three games against a reeling Angels team. The Angels were swept by the A’s this weekend. That marks the second three-game win streak for Oakland all year.
In the West, the Mariners continue their road trip in Cincinnati for three games, playing a feisty Reds team while the Astros and Rangers go head-to-head for three in Arlington.
Lastly, the Blue Jays get to play those suddenly winning A’s in Oakland. If Toronto can simply win the series, their worst case will be trailing the Wild Card by half a game.
National League
- 1-seed, 2-seed (100% playoff-likely): Atlanta, Los Angeles
- Making the Playoffs (>95%): Milwaukee, Philadelphia
- Looking Good (>75%): Chicago
- Holding the Upper Hand (>40%): San Francisco
- Fighting (>15%): Arizona, Miami, Cincinnati
This is getting all sorts of interesting. While the Reds host the Mariners for those three, the Diamondbacks host the Rockies and the Marlins host the Dodgers. Meanwhile, the Giants are at Wrigley Field for a three-game set which introduces a lot of risk for the Cubs.
Further ahead, the Phillies go to San Diego for a tough three games while the Brewers play three in Pittsburgh. The Braves host the Cardinals for three. The Dodgers, as mentioned, are in Miami.
The Best Games
Today’s best is an afternoon game, with Justin Steele welcoming Logan Webb to Wrigleyville. Tomorrow, Sonny Gray matches up with Tanner Bibee in Cleveland. Wednesday afternoon, Zach Wheeler goes against Michael Wacha.
Who’s Hot
Since August 1st, it’s still Mookie Betts who’s been the best player in baseball, though Trea Turner has moved into second in the NL in that span in fWAR. Julio Rodríguez continues to lead the AL. On the mound, it’s still Cole Ragans, with Freddy Peralta tops in the National League. One thing to watch over this last month is whether Betts can catch Shohei Ohtani for the overall WAR lead.
