We made a big deal these last two weeks about these seven games between the Rangers and the Mariners, and how big a deal they are for the Astros and Blue Jays, who are guaranteed a good number of losses from the series’ loser. I stand by that big–deal–making. It’s been a big deal! The Blue Jays are now nearly locked into the playoffs. The Astros…well, that’s the thing.
In case you were watching football: The Astros were swept by the Royals this weekend.
It was the latest in a perplexing string of defeats for the defending World Series champs, a team which has now gone 3–9 over its last twelve games despite playing six of those against Kansas City, three against Oakland, and nine of the twelve at home. At the worst time in the year, the Astros have gone cold in a variety of ways.
We should stress that the Astros aren’t playing that badly. They’ve been outscored by seven runs, but over a period that long that should even out to a 5–7 record, with 6–6 more likely than 4–8. It also isn’t all pitching or all hitting. They’ve allowed ten runs, they’ve allowed one run, they’ve scored eight runs, they’ve scored zero runs, they have done all of the things. They just keep losing. They keep losing close games. They are 1–7 over the stretch in games decided by one or two runs.
This is part of any baseball season. It all evens out over 162 games, and while the Astros have, by run differential, missed out on a few wins this year, the Mariners have missed just as many and the Rangers have missed even more. These twelve games have been every bit as much a part of the Houston Astros’ 2023 campaign as the 144 which preceded them. But boy, have they been surprising.
That advantage the Astros and Blue Jays had, where the Rangers and Mariners were playing one another so one of the two has to lose? Well, the Astros will still have it late this week in some sense, but right now, the Blue Jays appear pretty safe and the Rangers enjoy the advantage, sitting a sudden three games ahead in the loss column. The Rangers’ series with Seattle will resume. First, they get to let Seattle play Houston.
Here’s what happened this weekend, and what’s ahead over the front half of this week.
The Stars
Things aren’t great for Cincinnati right now, the Reds three losses back of playoff position with the taste of blowing a nine-run lead on Saturday still bitter in their mouth. At least TJ Friedl had a good weekend, homering in each of the series’ three games and only making two outs. Friedl was also the biggest difference-maker by Win Probability Added, homering to tie the game in the 6th on Sunday before singling home the eventual winning run in the 7th.
On the mound this weekend, no one was better than Dylan Cease, who threw seven scoreless, walk-less innings on Saturday in Boston while striking out eleven. Things are bad at Comiskey, but Cease is about to wrap up his third straight season with 32 or more starts, and he’s had a sub-4.00 FIP in all of them. Ace material.
Cease tied for the lead in pitcher WPA, but it was Jordan Montgomery a few notches back who made his presence the most felt on the playoff race. Montgomery’s seven shutout innings—he’s now allowed only one run over 21 innings in his last three starts—led the Rangers to a 2–0 victory on Saturday, taking the series and setting Texas up for a sweep it would complete. Montgomery is tied for second on the Rangers in pitcher fWAR despite joining the team at the trade deadline. Good trade, guys.
The Series
In the National League:
- Arizona lost two of three to the Yankees in a series whose final two games were pushed back a day due to Tropical Storm Ophelia. The Diamondbacks remain in 5th place in the NL, holding the tiebreaker over the Cubs, but they’re now only a game up on Miami, and they do not hold that tiebreaker. It’s hard to pull away.
- The Cubs swept the Rockies, rallying after a stretch very much like that of the Astros in which they lost ten of thirteen. Patrick Wisdom was the hero yesterday, homering in the 6th to give Chicago a 4–3 lead they’d go on to hold.
- Miami won two of three over the Brewers after losing 16–1 on Friday, taking Saturday’s game on a wild pitch in the eighth after Carlos Santana’s 300th home run flipped the game on its head two innings earlier. The Brewers’ series loss, combined with the Cubs’ sweep, leaves Milwaukee half a game short of clinching the NL Central.
- The Reds dropped two of three to the Pirates, and they’re now a full three games back of both Arizona and Chicago. They do hold the tiebreaker over those two, but they don’t hold it over Miami.
- Philadelphia swept four games against the Mets, moving to the verge of clinching a playoff spot, something which will more likely than not happen tomorrow but is coming this week barring a 1-in-4,000 scenario where they lose out and the Diamondbacks, Cubs, and Marlins all win out.
- The Dodgers and Braves each won their series three games to one, and with the pair separated by 3.5 games in the standings, it’s unlikely Los Angeles will catch Atlanta for the NL’s top seed. Los Angeles is racing with Baltimore for home field advantage in a potential World Series, but that is a niche scenario.
Over on the AL side:
- The Astros got swept by the Royals. Covered that already, but we always include series results in here, the section is always subtitled “The Series” after all.
- Texas swept Seattle, pulling a rabbit out of the hat after so recently flirting with a torturous collapse. Now it’s Seattle thinking about torture.
- The Blue Jays took two of three from the Rays, and with the Orioles splitting their four-game set in Cleveland, that probably wraps up the AL East for Baltimore. For Toronto, it means a two-game lead in the loss column on both Houston and Seattle as the pair prepare to play one another tonight through Wednesday.
- Minnesota continues to prepare for October. That involves playing baseball games, but they are of little consequence at the moment.
The Situation
The Orioles’ magic number to clinch the AL East is down to three, while the Brewers’ sits at one in the NL Central. In the NL Wild Card picture, the Phillies’ is at one, and that one result could come via any of the three teams behind them losing. On the NL side, the Wild Card is looking like this:
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5. Arizona: 82–74
6. Chicago: 82–74
7. Miami: 81–75
8. Cincinnati: 80–77
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To reiterate the tiebreakers here: Arizona over Chicago, Miami over Chicago, Miami over Arizona, Cincinnati over Chicago, Cincinnati over Arizona, Miami over Cincinnati. If there’s a three-way tie between Arizona, Chicago, and Miami, it will go Miami, Arizona, Chicago, in order, since Miami is 8–4 against the pair while Arizona is merely 8–5.
The Diamondbacks go to Chicago this week, but they’re playing the White Sox in a series that runs from Tuesday through Thursday after today’s game was postponed to make space for Arizona’s makeup against the Yankees. The Cubs are in Atlanta to play the Braves, Dansby Swanson making his first return to the ballpark where he played his World Series-winning baseball. The Marlins are on the road against the Mets for three. The Reds are up in Cleveland, playing two. All four of those series begin tomorrow.
In Clinchland, the Phillies host the Pirates for three and the Brewers welcome St. Louis for three of their own. The Dodgers are in Colorado for four as they make a last attempt to catch Atlanta, the set beginning with a doubleheader tomorrow.
In the AL, the Blue Jays are mixed in with the AL West crew, making the standings look like this but Toronto unable to jump into that 2-seed:
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2. Texas: 87–68
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5. Toronto: 87–69
6. Houston: 85–71
7. Seattle: 84–71
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In this case, the tiebreakers go: Texas over Toronto, Texas over Seattle, Houston over Texas, Toronto over Houston, Seattle over Toronto, and Seattle over Houston. A three-way tie is less likely than it is on the senior circuit.
The Mariners and Astros begin their series tonight in Washington, playing three games there. The Rangers are in Anaheim tonight, visiting the Angels for three. The Blue Jays will welcome the Yankees for a trio which begins tomorrow, picking up a little benefit in the fatigue balance thanks to the Yankees’ postponement on Saturday. The Orioles will look to clinch at home, playing two against the Nationals, but they’ll need help from the Red Sox, who host Tampa Bay for a pair. The Twins could theoretically catch Texas and grab the 2-seed (FanGraphs puts the probability at 1-in-200), and they’ll be hosting Oakland as they try to do that.
The Week’s Best Games
Tonight, Justin Verlander pitches against Luis Castillo, which would be fun even without the stakes. These two did not meet in the Division Series last year. Tomorrow, Justin Steele is listed opposite Bryce Elder in Atlanta, the pair of Southern gentlemen previewing a potential NLDS matchup. Wednesday, Andrew Abbott goes against Shane Bieber in what could be close to a last stand for the Reds. Thursday, the Rangers and Mariners open up their final series of the year, with pitchers currently unlisted for that one.
Who’s Hot
The Padres remain baseball’s best team over September, though any miraculous comeback there is close to being completely stamped out after the Cubs and Marlins did enough winning this weekend to hold San Diego at bay. Since August 1st, it’s still the Dodgers, followed in order by Baltimore, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay. The best non-playoff contending team over these last two months has been the Pirates, who are 27–24 over the stretch.
Xander Bogaerts has still been baseball’s best player in September, his OBP hanging close to .500 and his slugging better than Matt Olson’s despite hitting six fewer home runs on the month. Bogaerts has also stolen five bases. Since August 1st, it’s Mookie Betts. Best team, best player for each set of time.
On the mound, it’s still a three-way tie between Michael King, Gerrit Cole, and Tarik Skubal over their last three starts, with NL Cy Young favorite Blake Snell next in line. Snell pitches tonight against the Giants and then probably on Sunday against the White Sox as he looks to put the award away. Since August 1st, it’s still Cole Ragans, though Skubal is getting close. Ragans walked four Astros on Friday and allowed a home run, but he kept the scoring to two runs over six innings of work.
Closing Thoughts
We asked in this space on Friday whether there’s any predictivity to the thing which gets so many fans so riled up: Results in the last two or three series. If there were, it stood to reason that the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks would have a good weekend while the Cubs and Astros had bad ones. Well, two for four. If we test it again, here’s who’s hot, cold, and neutral now over the last two series and the last three.
The last two:
- Texas: 5–1 (Hot)
- Toronto: 4–2 (Hot)
- Arizona: 3–2 (Neutral)
- Seattle: 3–3 (Neutral)
- Chicago: 3–3 (Neutral)
- Miami: 3–3 (Neutral)
- Cincinnati: 2–4 (Cold)
- Houston: 1–5 (Cold)
The last three:
- Toronto: 7–2 (Hot)
- Arizona: 6–2 (Hot)
- Miami: 6–3 (Hot)
- Texas: 5–4 (Neutral)
- Chicago: 4–5 (Neutral)
- Cincinnati: 4–5 (Neutral)
- Seattle: 3–6 (Cold)
- Houston: 2–7 (Cold)
By this logic, the Blue Jays should roll over the Yankees while the Astros should lose a cold-off with Seattle. Honestly, maybe so.
