The Astros have a problem.
It’s inconsequential, for now, but it’s there, and if they’re looking to improve between now and October, it’s a hole that should be addressed.
Their first basemen aren’t very good.
Yuli Gurriel and Tyler White, who have started all but a handful of games at first, have combined for -0.7 fWAR. Nearly a full win worse than just a replacement-level player. Bad, even if easily hidden in a stout lineup.
Both could recover, at least to a level of adequacy, but even then, it’s an area where improvement is possible, and in a world where all three of the Astros’ potential postseason series should come against 90+ win teams, every piece counts.
Could help come from within? Well, if Aledmys Diaz comes back healthy and isn’t needed in the middle infield (i.e., if Diaz and Altuve and Correa come back healthy), yes, but otherwise, it’s unlikely. Neither of their first basemen down at Round Rock have demonstrated they can contribute at the MLB level (though Taylor Jones is hitting PCL pitching well), and the Astros have shown no signs of wanting Kyle Tucker to learn a new position.
A trade, then, would be the most obvious course of action, if the Astros deem it worthwhile. And looking at potential targets highlights an interesting trend.
Of the twelve teams which FanGraphs’ Playoff Odds indicate have better than a 30% chance of playing in October, nine have first basemen who rank among the best fourteen at the position, as measured by season-to-date fWAR. Two of the three that don’t—the Red Sox and Brewers—have at least one player who’s been effective at the position in limited plate appearances. Only the Astros can reasonably called weak at first base.
Of course, the trend of good first basemen playing for good teams makes sense (not having looked, my guess would be the pattern is similar at other positions), but it does show how isolated the market is. At first base, only the Astros should really be considered buyers at this point.
And who might be a seller?
Well, as you may have noticed in the previous paragraph, there are five first basemen among the best fourteen who are not on a team that can easily be called a contender. Of those, four (Josh Bell, Peter Alonso, Trey Mancini, and Dominic Smith) are very much under club control. But one is older. He has a hefty contract: his base salary both this year and next year is $20M, though next year there’s an option for a $5M buyout. But he’s a good first baseman, and there’s no reason his current employer shouldn’t be willing to part with him.
The Astros, as it stands, are right up against the luxury tax threshold (according to data on Spotrac). So it’s possible they’d rather patch the hole at first base, staying optimistic that injuries won’t prohibit them from doing so, than make an intra-division trade for Edwin Encarnación. Or, it’s possible they’d bake a salary dump into the trade, giving up Gurriel, who’s burning a $10M hole in their wallet. Over two months of pay, it’s possible they’d then be close enough to be able to stay under the threshold with some finagling—to be honest, I don’t know enough about the Astros’ payroll to know whether it’s plausible or not to finagle around what my best estimate says would be about a $4M overstep. But that $4M number, compared to the $206M threshold, does at least look plausibly manageable.
One intriguing piece of the market shaping up (so far) the way it has it that both the Mariners and Astros have a lot of power, as the only real buyer and seller, at least at this point. There isn’t another first baseman as clearly available as Encarnación. There aren’t other contending teams in obvious need of a first baseman.
Will Edwin Encarnación be an Astro come October? The answer is more likely no than yes. But will the Astros change something at first base, barring a turnaround from at least one half of the Gurriel/White platoon? That answer is more likely yes than no.
