On July 26th, six weeks ago last night, the Texas Rangers punked the Houston Astros. In the wake of Framber Valdez appearing to intentionally throw at Marcus Semien (seemingly under orders from someone else in the Houston clubhouse, in retaliation for Yordan Alvarez being hit in the first inning), Semien and Martín Maldonado began an extended war of words which lasted throughout the Rangers’ 13–5 victory. At one point, benches cleared, but while no punches were thrown, the intrastate rivalry which had long laid dormant simmered towards a boil. Had the Astros won the game, they would have swept Texas, tying the division leaders on a night when Alvarez and Jose Altuve both returned from the IL. Instead, the Rangers extended their lead to two games, and having fought off their closest challengers, left Houston feeling good about their chances to not only play in October but win the AL West and enter the Division Series via bye.
What a difference six weeks can make.
The Astros finished off a sweep of the Rangers last night, this time in Arlington, smacking five home runs to score twelve runs in what had been billed, coming in, as a pitcher’s duel between marquee trade deadline acquisitions Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. With the victory, the Astros extended their lead over Texas to a full three games, holding their lead on Seattle at one. With the loss, the Rangers remained half a game behind the Blue Jays in the race for the final American League playoff spot, a position they’d assumed with Tuesday night’s even more lopsided defeat.
Three games are only three games, and among a season of 162, their individual importance is minimal. But scoring 39 runs over a three-game sweep of your division rival is hard to ignore, especially when the leverage behind the games was as high as it was. The Rangers are scrambling. The Astros are surging. Those hoping for a change in power in the West Division must put that hope behind the Mariners.
Here’s what else has been going on so far in September’s first full week.
The Stars
Altuve was the big performer on the week, homering five times in the three games in what was very much an “I’ve still got it” moment. The Astros are transitioning, but their heartbeat since his 2014 breakout, back when he was 24 and already playing his fourth MLB season, does not appear to be going anywhere.
The sweep wasn’t Semien’s fault, with the Rangers veteran leader homering twice himself last night while going 6-for-12 on the series. Semien hasn’t played in the postseason since 2020, and seven of his nine career playoff games came that year. Who eliminated his Oakland A’s? The Houston Astros, of course.
Seiya Suzuki has been hitting the ball well, having slumped so badly earlier this summer that David Ross gave him a few games off as an explicit mental break. He recorded five extra-base hits in the Cubs’ sweep of the Giants, including a game-tying home run on Tuesday in the bottom of the seventh. On Monday, Justin Steele turned in a masterpiece, striking out twelve over eight scoreless innings of work.
The Red Sox and Rays played a back-and-forth series, but on Tuesday, it was the Rays commanding control, with Brandon Lowe’s walk-off home run gutting Boston after a pair of outfield assists (by Masataka Yoshida and Adam Duvall) kept the Red Sox alive in the 8th and 10th.
The Series
On the NL side:
- The Marlins have taken their first two against the Dodgers, with the finale coming up tonight.
- The Cubs swept the Giants.
- The Brewers dropped two of three in Pittsburgh.
- The Phillies took two of three from the Padres.
- St. Louis has won its first two in Atlanta, in perhaps a comedown for the Braves after the weekend’s success in California.
- The Reds won two games out of three over the Mariners. True to Cincinnati form, there were Elly De La Cruz heroics involved in Tuesday’s comeback.
- The Diamondbacks grabbed two of three in Colorado.
The AL:
- The Astros swept those three over the Rangers.
- The Mariners lost two of three to the Reds.
- The Rays took two of three over the Red Sox.
- Baltimore swept three games in Anaheim.
- The Twins took two of three from the Guardians, putting up 20 in the opener in Lucas Giolito’s Cleveland debut.
- Toronto won two of three in Houston.
The Situation
Here’s where that leaves us, in the competitive divisions:
- The Astros gained two games on the Mariners, leapfrogging Seattle to lead by a game though the two are tied in the loss column. Texas is three games back of Houston.
- The Rays lost another game on Baltimore, now trailing by three and a half and looking more and more locked into the AL 4-seed.
- Minnesota stretched its lead on Cleveland to six games, likely wrapping the division up.
- The Cubs moved up a game on Milwaukee, now trailing by one and a half games overall but two in the loss column.
With the Wild Cards, it gets messier.
In the American League, Toronto gained a game on the Mariners and two games on the Rangers, leaving the standings looking like this:
…
5. Seattle: 78–61
6. Toronto: 77–63
7. Texas: 76–63
…
The Red Sox are five games back of the Jays. The Yankees are 6.5 behind.
In the National League, the Cubs created more space, and the Marlins have had a good week so far. The Giants have lost ground on everyone. The Phillies are comfortable, but are under some threat of losing their 4-seed to the Cubs (or Brewers). Here’s how the standings line up, with Milwaukee holding the 3-seed by virtue of leading their division:
…
3. Milwaukee: 77–62
4. Philadelphia: 77–62
5. Chicago: 76–64
6. Miami: 72–67
7. Arizona: 72–68
8. Cincinnati: 73–69
9. San Francisco: 70–70
…
What we’re seeing then, is a seven-team race in the AL that’s mostly for seeding, though none of the four of Houston, Seattle, Toronto, and Texas is comfortably locked into playoff position. It’s looking more and more like the Orioles will take the top seed, and the Twins are close enough to locking up the Central that we’re not going to pay attention to the Guardians anymore unless they loudly reenter the picture this weekend. Similarly, it’s time to write off the Red Sox.
In the AL East race, the Orioles visit Boston for three games this weekend while the Rays play four at home against the Mariners. Those four are key in the AL West and the Wild Card situation as well, coming while the Astros host San Diego for three and the Rangers welcome Oakland for a trio. Toronto takes on the Royals on Canadian soil.
It’s a tough situation for the Mariners in the short term, though they’re operating with some cushion and the Astros’ matchup is far from easy. If Seattle can split their series, they’re assured of at least holding onto the 6-seed by half a game, but they have division championship aspirations, so splitting the series is not the goal. For Toronto and Texas, we’re in the time of year where it’s sweep or bust against Major League Baseball’s only two mathematically eliminated teams. It’s unlikely either will pull it off, which means it’s likely both will walk away feeling an opportunity was missed.
In the National League, there are a few things going on. The Brewers, Phillies, and Cubs are all probably in the playoffs, though none are completely safe just yet. Two of the three will get to host a Wild Card Series, with either the Phillies or the NL Central runner-up hosting the third team of the three. The Cubs start a four-game set with the Diamondbacks tonight at Wrigley. The Brewers play three at Yankee Stadium beginning tomorrow. The Phillies host the Marlins for a trio in Pennsylvania, also with a Friday night start. Of those three, the Brewers have the toughest draw, given the Yankees are good on paper and playing better of late, but none of the three has a cakewalk. One thing to note here? The Cubs will exit Sunday having played two more games than both of these others. That foreshadows some extra rest to come.
While the Marlins finish up against the Dodgers and deal with the Phillies in Philly, and while the Diamondbacks try to grab wins against a hot Cubs team, the Reds host a Cardinals team whose bats may have woken up, and the Giants try to bounce back against the Rockies, who could be mathematically eliminated as soon as tomorrow night. That’s a good situation for San Francisco, and it’s probably a good situation for Cincinnati, though facing a team who spent the front half of the week beating up on the best team in baseball isn’t anyone’s ideal weekend. The Giants could really use a sweep. Everyone involved could really use some help.
This Weekend’s Best Games
Tonight’s opener in Tampa Bay is interesting, with Zach Littell starting opposite Luis Castillo. Tomorrow, Eury Pérez goes in Philadelphia against Cristopher Sanchez of the Phillies in an under-the-radar strong matchup. On Saturday, Justin Steele and Merrill Kelly duel, with the former a Cy Young contender and the latter one of the strongest traditional starters in the game. On Sunday, Corbin Burnes faces Gerrit Cole in the Bronx, and if the Yankees have gained ground over the beginning of the week, that’s going to come with a lot of attention.
Who’s Hot
Since August 1st, the Dodgers have been the best team in baseball, a title they hold despite losing five of their last six. Since the beginning of last week, the crown belongs to the Orioles with an 11–4 mark. The Cubs are 12–5 over that stretch to lead the NL.
Individually, Mookie Betts still leads the majors in production since August 1st, hitting .422 and accounting for a full three wins above replacement over that stretch. If he can reach base in his next three plate appearances, he’ll have reached in half his 148 since August began.
On the mound, Cole Ragans is still the guy since August 1st, but Tyler Glasnow’s in the mix despite making only five starts over that stretch. The Rays ace missed a start on August 6th due to back spasms, but in the weeks since he’s pitched 31 innings, allowed just one home run, and struck out 38 while walking only six.
In pure Win Probability Added, Marlins closer Tanner Scott leads the leagues among pitchers, while Bryce Harper has had the biggest overall impact. Harper’s shifted the odds a full three wins in the Phillies’ favor with timely performance.
