They just kept getting hits.
What Happened
Houston 9, Atlanta 5
The celebration was on deck in Atlanta after Adam Duvall’s first-inning grand slam. The stage was set. All Atlanta had to do was hold Houston at bay, which seemed likely to mean just holding them to two or three runs over the first five innings or so, with a solid collection of bullpen stalwarts awaiting their respective calls later in the night.
It didn’t happen.
In the second inning, the Astros grabbed a pair, with an Alex Bregman double the key moment. In the third, they tied it up, with a Dansby Swanson error starting it and a Carlos Correa double the big hit. In the fifth, with Atlanta back in front by one via a Freddie Freeman home run, Brian Snitker had called upon his best, but A.J. Minter couldn’t come through, walking Martín Maldonado with the bases loaded to tie it again before Marwin Gonzalez’s single gave Houston a lead they’d keep.
The Astros weren’t hitting the ball hard. Their hardest-hit ball of the evening was a Zack Greinke pinch-hit single in the fourth. Their second hardest-hit ball of the evening—Correa’s double—was struck more softly than eight the home team put in play. At the same time, though, Atlanta walked six batters, five unintentionally, and managed to strike out only one man over the three and two-thirds innings preceding Minter’s entry. Did the Astros come through? I guess. But mostly just by putting the ball in play. It was exciting, and gritty, and dramatic…but it’s tempting to say something outrageously stupid about this, and we should not say outrageously stupid things in realms other than comedy.
The Heroes
Win Probability Added leaders, from FanGraphs:
- Gonzalez (0.21)
- Duvall (0.20)
- Maldonado (0.17)
- Correa (0.16)
- Phil Maton (0.15)
What It Means
The series heads back to Houston, with Atlanta forced to take a day and think about what they’ve done. The Astros are only roughly 30% likely to win the series, per FanGraphs, but betting markets are slightly higher on them, perhaps ascribing some weight to…the 2017 Super Bowl? (More on this in our best bet today, coming soon.)
Other Notes
- Yes, Greinke got another hit. Yes, Dusty Baker used him as a pinch-hitter. Yes, this was all wonderful.
- Eddie Rosario drew two walks for the home team. Austin Riley doubled once and singled twice. Travis d’Arnaud was on base two times.
- Correa had three hits for the Astros. Kyle Tucker was on base thrice as well. Bregman, Maldonado, and Michael Brantley each reached twice.
- Maton worked two scoreless innings, striking out three. Ryne Stanek and Kendall Graveman struck out a combined three over three combined innings themselves.
- The Astros did not have to use Ryan Pressly.
- Drew Smyly pitched the final three for the home team, and he struck out five while doing it, but he did allow two runs to score.
- Houston had an xBA of .255 on the game, per Statcast. Atlanta’s was .214. Houston walked six times, Atlanta walked only twice.
