It’s May 10th. The five teams in the American League West have played a combined 23% of their games. And the division race might be over.
Yes, for the third straight year, the Houston Astros are poised to be your AL West champions.
Again, it’s May 10th.
Is this too early to call the race? Yes. The games have yet to be played. Sportsbooks are still offering odds. And as the A’s showed last year, it’s possible someone will at least make something of a contest of it.
But at the same time, FanGraphs has the Astros as 98.0% favorites to win the division, the highest they’ve had any team on May 10th in seasons going back to 2014, including 2016, when the Cubs were 25-6 on this date. To be honest, the 98.0% probability is likely more accurate than a conservative one, like FiveThirtyEight’s, which even in its caution has the Astros as a measly 89% favorite, especially when considering that the Astros have the resources to improve their team via trade if the need is there.
How much better are the Astros than the rest of their division?
- They’re outscoring the next best team in run differential (the Rangers) by nearly a run a game.
- Their worst player so far, by fWAR, has played better than at least two everyday players have for each of their division rivals.
- Their team wRC+, relative to the MLB average, is 61% better than the next-best in the division.
- Their team ERA, relative to the MLB median, is 3450% better than the next-best in the division.
Have the Astros had some good luck?
Yes.
Their opponents’ BABIP is .247, and their defensive runs above average is slightly negative, indicating that number should regress towards .300, dragging ERA upwards with it.
They also play in a division without much serious competition. The Rangers and Mariners are rebuilding. The A’s would love to compete, but will likely cede the fifth playoff spot (among teams other than the AL’s Big Four, who have all made the postseason the past two years and are each more likely than not to return in 2019) to the Rays or Twins. Who knows what the Angels are doing, aside from not being a threat to the Astros.
But still, the Astros are so good, top-to-bottom, that their status as American League West Champions is all but assured.
On May 10th.
