We talked on Monday about how we’re at the point in the season where our model transitions from proxies to the real thing for some of the ratings systems the selection committee uses. If you missed that post, the short version is that our model incorporates both current and future ratings, and because we don’t know the exact formulas of the ratings systems, we use proxies the whole season when projecting them forward. Up to a point in the year, though, it also makes sense to use proxies rather than the current ratings, because the ratings are based on too small a sample. This applies to KPI, SOR, and NET, and the only reason we highlight it here is that when we make the transition, there’s sometimes a little hiccup. We got through it with KPI on Monday. Today, we’re through it with SOR and NET. Meaning the only real hiccups the rest of the way will be updated conference schedules and tournament formats—smaller hiccups by nature.
Now, what happened the last two days:
Moving Up: Tennessee, Virginia Tech, Creighton, Florida, UNC
North Carolina is one of our biggest climbers coming off the win in Durham. The Tar Heels were an underdog, so our model expected them to lose. By not losing, UNC not only avoided what would have been a disappointing loss on the surface, but also got a good road win that’s not unlikely to end up in Quadrant I on their team sheet. Nice day for the Heels’ sense of security.
Tennessee had a dicey one with Kentucky, but games are best evaluated over the totality of their forty minutes, and the final few from the Vols were enough to outweigh the first half and a half.
Virginia Tech didn’t move up based on their performance, but did move up because SOR likes them more than our proxy thought it would. This is the only noteworthy SOR/NET-transition hiccup.
Creighton’s fate is fairly tied to Seton Hall’s (having beaten that team twice), and the Pirates’ big win was a godsend for the scuffling Jays.
Florida also got some help elsewhere, as their wins over Tennessee, West Virginia, and even Mississippi and Georgia were boosted.
Moving Down: BYU, St. Bonaventure, Maryland
BYU had a few things going on, but the biggest was Boise State losing at Nevada. That loss in Provo might turn out to be a mark the Cougars can’t survive. Keep an eye on it. If you care that much about BYU (or just want to seem knowledgeable).
St. Bonaventure is still the A-10 favorite, but they did lose at Saint Louis, pulling them down a peg.
Maryland’s loss at Penn State, while not unexpected, still further heightens the treacherousness of their position.
Moving In: Seton Hall, Indiana
As was said, Seton Hall got a big win, triumphing over UConn in Storrs. By KenPom, the Pirates—a projected 11-seed—would be narrow favorites over Virginia Tech—a projected 6-seed. Start remembering that in case words like “upset” are being thrown around too liberally in six weeks.
It was a lot of little things for Indiana. Some other results improved. The aggregate conference tournament simulations improved. The Hoosiers are still projected to be bid-thieved out of the field, but better that than to not be projected in the field to begin with.
Moving Out: Boise State, Western Kentucky
Boise State lost at Nevada Friday night, which isn’t advisable.
When Alabama loses, it’s bad for WKU. When Charlotte gets swept by Middle Tennessee State, it’s much, much worse.
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We’re into the Sunday/Wednesday/Friday cadence for updates, so we’ll see you again in three days. In the meantime, big opportunity for Indiana today, and a scary one for Iowa.
