That Positive Test Rate Spike Turned Out Fine, For Now

On Wednesday, we looked at what appeared to be a small spike in the positive coronavirus test rate in the United States. We looked with some apprehension. We feared the beginning of a shift in trend.

Three days later, those fears have been relieved. While the rate could spike any day, it hasn’t spiked yet. As more data has come in, the positive test rate has been found to have remained under the 5% threshold, however narrowly, for a week and a half now, with the added encouraging development of more total test results being reported yesterday than on any other day since the pandemic began.

Here’s the graph from Wednesday morning:

Line is seven-day moving average of positive test rate. Graph from Johns Hopkins.

Here’s the graph from this morning:

Line is seven-day moving average of positive test rate. Graph from Johns Hopkins.

We’ll see where it goes, but for the time being, things at least appear relatively stable.

Editor. Occasional blogger. Seen on Twitter, often in bursts: @StuartNMcGrath
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