1. Alec Mills is pitching better than last year.
Mills finished last year with a 5.10 xERA and a 5.44 FIP over about 62 innings. He’s currently got a 4.34 xERA and a 4.74 FIP over 33 innings. The ERA’s are reversed (4.48 last year, 5.18 this year), and he hasn’t thrown any no-hitters yet (what gives?), and he only started last year whereas he’s been more a reliever than a starter this year, but still: He’s pitching more than adequately, and his outing yesterday came at a great time for a Cubs’ team needing some competence from the rotation. There was hard contact, but he did manage that, and by the time the Tepera/Chafin/Kimbrel trio was done with their meal, the Marlins had the lower xBA on the game and not a single walk.
2. Javy Báez is so good defensively.
He makes errors, yes, but that’s a stat that doesn’t get ripped on enough. His range. His ability to make unplayable balls playable. His deftness. Like Mills, came through in a big way with that play early on.
3. Patrick Wisdom is still having a heck of a year.
He’s only homered once in his last ten games (bum!), but his wRC+ is still a mighty 196 and he’s about to cross 75 plate appearances. That wRC+ is even with that of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Big moment from him yesterday too.
4. The bullpen helps itself.
Ryan Tepera worked two innings, so I’d expect him to be down tonight, but Andrew Chafin and Craig Kimbrel threw only a combined 21 pitches, keeping them fresh enough. Like that a lot.
***
Around the Division:
The Brewers did beat the Rockies again, overcoming a blown six-run lead to escape by a run. The Cardinals split their doubleheader in Atlanta to stay at .500. The Reds were swept by the Padres.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
T-1. Milwaukee: 40-32, 56.8%
T-1. Cubs: 40-32, 26.2%
T-3. Cincinnati: 35-35, 10.4%
T-3. St. Louis: 36-36, 6.6%
5. Pittsburgh: 25-45, 0.0%
The Brewers start a three-game set tonight in Arizona. The Reds play the first of two in Minnesota. The Cardinals have the day off as they travel to Detroit. Brett Anderson vs. Merrill Kelly in Phoenix, Tyler Mahle vs. J.A. Happ in Minneapolis.
One thing of note: FanGraphs’s strength of schedule metric now has the Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals all virtually even, with a slightly better slate from here on out than the Reds and the best slates of all NL playoff contenders.
Up Next:
Two with Cleveland, who remains the only baseball team to have swept the Cubs so far this year. (But it was just two games!)
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Cleveland
When:
7:05 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
A little cooler, with temperatures in the 60’s and wind blowing in from left at ten to fifteen miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Adbert Alzolay vs. Aaron Civale
The Opponent:
Civale has ten wins, but don’t get too worried. While his ERA’s 3.48, his xERA’s at 4.40 and his FIP’s 4.37, so he’s a rather average pitcher, albeit one who could hit 100 innings with a deep outing tonight. Definitely a good arm, but nothing of which to be terribly afraid.
On the injury front, Cleveland’s without both of its top two catchers, so brief former Cub René Rivera or not a former Cub Ryan Lavarnway (man, thought he’d retired ages ago) should get the start. José Ramírez has been missing time with a foot injury but did pinch hit on Saturday. Franmil Reyes has headed out on a rehab assignment for a strained ab but I don’t think he’s expected back these next two days. Shane Bieber and Zach Plesac are sidelined, but the Cubs weren’t going to necessarily see them anyway.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -155 favorites with their guests at +130, so about a 58% shot at a win, per the market. The over/under’s at seven and favors the over.
Cubs News:
Kyle Ryan was added back to the 40-man roster before yesterday’s game, with Cory Abbott heading back to Iowa and Robert Stock receiving the DFA. Someone else will have to go down to AAA with Alzolay coming back tonight. Curious if Tommy Nance would be considered for that. Guessing Stock gets claimed somewhere, but we’ll see.
Matt Duffy, who was supposed to be rather close to returning, is no longer rather close to returning. Evidently he’s got a bad back, which kind of fits his aura and will hopefully end with him gritting it out and coming through in the playoffs in what becomes the basis for a future Disney movie.
Cubs Thoughts:
Don’t put too much pressure on Alzolay tonight, and don’t put too much pressure on the Cubs. Splitting this series would be a fine result, after which it would just be a seven-game set the Cubs would need to win to hit the halfway mark on that 90-win pace.
That said, winning tonight would wrap up a split, and would create some possibilities for scenarios in which the Cubs are unable to split the four in Los Angeles this weekend.
