We talked early this offseason about what the Cubs would do to fill out their 2021 starting rotation, whether that be bringing Jon Lester back, putting Brailyn Márquez into a big role, or picking up a piece in free agency. Now, the rumor is that they might be filling two spots, because according to some speculation from Jesse Rogers yesterday (on ESPN1000 with Kap & J. Hood), Yu Darvish might be on the trade block.
There seems to be at least a little debate about whether this was Rogers’s point, or whether he was just saying the market isn’t there for the Cubs to trade Kris Bryant (the point was made in a “trading Darvish is more likely than trading Bryant” framing). The bottom line, though, seems to be that a Bryant trade is looking less likely, while a Darvish trade is a possibility.
Now, it would take a lot for the Cubs to trade Yu Darvish. But they would get a lot in return. He’s under contract for three more years. He was in the Cy Young mix this year. The Cubs could presumably get a motherload for the ace, and as disappointing as it would be to part ways with such a likable, productive player, there’s a case to be made for doing it. If the Cubs are going to rebuild, they might as well lean in, and nothing would kickstart that like a trade that could bring back as many as three top prospects. Perhaps the number would be bigger than three. We don’t really know. Trades with this much value on them are rare, and this offseason’s at least a little unusual. What we do know is it would be quite the haul, and while we probably got spoiled having so many can’t-miss prospects not miss in the early Epstein years, having even one all-star in 2024 in return for yielding Darvish over what are shaping up to be mediocre years isn’t the worst tradeoff.
As Brett Taylor pointed out over at Bleacher Nation, there’s an element here where it doesn’t make as much sense for the Cubs to hold onto Bryant if they flip Darvish. But at the same time, the option with Bryant would be to hope he finds his stroke over the season’s first half and flip him at the trade deadline. If that didn’t work, a qualifying offer and either a short-term Kris Bryant or a good draft pick wouldn’t be the worst outcome after 2021, in the event this really was a rebuild. And there’s the possibility, with the Central potentially rather bad, that the Cubs could get a serviceable, young, controllable arm in a Darvish deal and end up competing even without the ace. Come October, yes, it’d be a frustrating situation, but the path is there.
So, overall, as sad as a Yu Darvish trade would be, the Schwarber non-tender has ripped the band-aid off. If this is a rebuild, Jed Hoyer might as well go in whole hog. We’d love to see Darvish stay. If he goes, we get it.
