Taking a break from going on Twitter searching “Big Ten” and then every conceivable competitor to Iowa State in the bid for that theoretical 16th spot in an effort to convince myself everything will be ok to check in on the men’s basketball roster for this winter, since no new transfers should be coming in at this point and I never shook out where things landed.
Others will put together projections regarding rotations and playing time breakdowns and all of that, but the truth is, right now a lot’s up in the air, at least as far as we know. So rather than trying to forecast a starting lineup and accidentally over and underweighting specific guys, let’s just check through who T.J. Otzelberger has at his disposal entering his first year at the helm in Ames:
The Returners
F: Javan Johnson
G: Tre Jackson
G: Jaden Walker
F: George Conditt IV
Among guys who played significant minutes last year, four are back, with Johnson the only regular starter in the group. Johnson struggled with his shooting last year, playing more of a distributive role than he did during his days at Troy, but he was never an offensive force down in the Sun Belt. Conditt had a down year after looking good at times in 2019-20. Walker, a three-star recruit, was thrust into a significant role and struggled mightily with turnovers, but certainly had his moments.
Jackson doesn’t get a ton of attention, but he grades out the best in the group in terms of how the team plays while he’s on the court, with defense a strong suit. It’ll be interesting to see what his role is as a junior.
The Returner-ish
F: Xavier Foster
A top-100 recruit nationally entering last year, Foster missed most of the season with a foot injury. He offers some excitement.
The Freshman
G: Tyrese Hunter
One of the most highly regarded recruits in Iowa State history, it’ll be important to not place too high of expectations on Hunter. That said, he’ll be a big part of the team one way or another.
The Old Transfer
G: Blake Hinson
Hinson’s intriguing. He was great at Mississippi as a freshman, but when his usage increased and his teammates worsened his sophomore campaign, his efficiency took a hit. He also missed last year with a medical issue Mississippi coach Kermit Davis once referred to as a “blood abnormality.” Someone to keep an eye on. Could be a great asset, could never see the floor.
The New Transfers
G: Gabe Kalscheur
G: Izaiah Brockington
F: Aljaž Kunc
G: Caleb Grill
F: Robert Jones
G/F: Tristan Enaruna
These guys come in from, in order, Minnesota, Penn State, Washington State, UNLV, Denver, and Kansas. Kalscheur, Brockington, and Kunc have all produced at times in power conferences, hitting comparable ceilings to that of Hinson while having their respective shares of struggles. Grill was respectable at UNLV and played a lot of minutes there under Otzelberger. Jones was about as good as anyone Denver had, but Denver was among the worst fifteen or twenty Division I teams this past year.
Enaruna’s enticing. A former four-star recruit, he never clicked at Kansas, but the fact Kansas saw him as worth a scholarship in the first place is a good sign. If he doesn’t pan out, he doesn’t pan out, but if he does, he’ll be a great piece to have.
The Walk-On
G: Carter Boothe
Not to be ignored, Boothe figures to play mop-up minutes here and there and that’s it. But he’s on the roster, and frankly it would be rude to leave him out of this roundup.
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Overall, it’s at least an interesting group. There’s enough depth that it’s a diverse portfolio of assets, and Foster and Hunter provide upside amidst a collection of three-star types—role players with moderately high ceilings and low floors. The Big 12 in its whole figures to be slightly down this year—Oklahoma’s a question mark in Porter Moser’s first season, TCU and Kansas State are still in the wilderness with the Cyclones—but it’s got a strong top tier between Kansas, Baylor, and Texas, and it’s got a strong middle tier between Texas Tech, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State, and it could be another painful year but the team could also take down Iowa in nonconference play and maybe hang around the bubble, or at least the NIT bubble. I’d guess Iowa State will be favored in only their seven buy games of the nonconference slate, coming in as underdogs against Oregon State, Xavier, Memphis/Virginia Tech, Creighton, Iowa, and Missouri, though only Creighton is a road game, with the Xavier and either Memphis or Virginia Tech games taking place in Brooklyn. If ISU can steal even just two of those, they’ll have a 9-4 nonconference mark that would allow them to go 7-11 in conference (granted, a tough mark to achieve) and still likely make the NIT, though I’m not sure how a nonconference schedule inclusive of seven Q4 games will go over numerically, especially with likely only two or three Q1 games coming from the nonconference side of things. We’ll learn a lot from the Oregon State game the first Friday of the season, and even more around Thanksgiving. At the very least, every nonconference game is theoretically winnable—I’d guess only Memphis debuts in the KenPom top 25.
So, as always, we’ll see. It’s about as competitive of a roster as you could ask Otzelberger to put together, and it’s well-positioned, with the extra year of eligibility hanging around from last year, to set ISU up for 2022 NCAA Tournament contention, which is the reasonable goal for the program right now.
