Whom:
Cubs vs. Atlanta
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
It’s looking dry, with temperatures in the mid-40’s and the wind blowing in from center at about ten miles per hour. Hopefully the Cubs pitchers don’t have any trouble gripping the ball, as seemed to have possibly been the case against Pittsburgh the last time there was a cold game.
Starting Pitchers:
TBD (presumably Zach Davies but not formally announced, with the thought being it could also be Kyle Hendricks—guessing it’ll be announced rather soon) vs. Drew Smyly
The Opponent:
Mike Soroka and Max Fried—Atlanta’s two best pitchers—are both on the injured list right now, but Smyly’s in the rotation by design. He was hit around a little by the Phillies in his last start—gave up two home runs in five innings—but in his first outing, he struck out eight across six innings, so without looking at the exit velocities from the three dingers he’s allowed, I’ll go out on a limb and say he’s been fine. He had a great 26 innings last year and a terrible 114 innings the year before that, but he’s generally expected to be solid this year.
The Numbers:
As of right now, the Cubs are at +110 to win and -120 to lose, which puts the winning probability right around 45%. The over/under’s at 7½ and the odds lean towards the under.
Cubs News:
David Ross will be serving a one-game suspension today because Ryan Tepera threw behind Brandon Woodruff on Tuesday. Tepera has been suspended for three games and is appealing—seems it’ll probably be reduced to two games, but I could be off on that.
Others have pointed out that Adbert Alzolay can rest these next few series because the Cubs had the off-day yesterday and have an off-day Monday and can go with just four starters until, one would imagine, April 28th, twelve days from now. So let me parrot that here.
Cubs Thoughts:
It’s going to be a hard day to hit, with it being cold and with the wind blowing in. It’s one of those days where walks would be nice and base hits would be nicer. We’ll see what the offense does. The over/under implies five should be enough to win it, but that would match a season-high for the home team.
Around the Division:
The Pirates split their two with the Padres since we last talked.
Standings, division championship probabilities from FanGraphs:
T-1. Milwaukee (7-5, 49.7%)
T-1. Cincinnati (7-5, 22.8%)
3. St. Louis (6-6, 17.2%)
4. Cubs (5-7, 10.0%)
5. Pittsburgh (5-8, 0.3%)
If you throw out the fact that the Cubs have gotten to play half their games against the Pirates, doesn’t look too unreasonable. But you have to throw out that fact to make it look that way. Also, Pirates on the come up! Were at 0.0% recently and are now as likely to win the division as the Cubs are to win the World Series. Oh man. That hurts a little bit. Probably for both teams.
