1. This is sad.
It just never worked with Prohm. Aside from 2018-19, he never built a competitive-enough team of his own. He always seemed like a good guy. It’s a bummer there weren’t more wins.
2. It’s probably the right move.
If the money’s there to both a) buy out Prohm and b) buy out another coach, it’s probably worth it. It hasn’t worked, and there isn’t enough in the tank to imply it will work in the near future.
3. Will Steve Prohm be hired soon?
I admittedly don’t know all the details about how buyouts work, but my impression is that at least in some cases, bought-out coaches’ buyouts are nullified when they sign with another school. Again, I have no idea if that’s the case with Prohm, but it does add a wrinkle here. Prohm being hired by another school could erase his buyout from Iowa State’s ledger, providing more money to buy out a target.
Prohm seems like a good fit for a low-major or a mid-major, someone in that Murray State tier of programs whence he came. He’s succeeded at that level before. He’s shown some recruiting chops. He’s developed NBA talents. He’s won a Big 12 Tournament. Those are things that a school could find appealing. But at the same time, he couldn’t cut it at Iowa State, which is going to give some pause.
A good comparison for Prohm in this arena might be Tim Miles—good-guy reputation, some mild success in a power conference, never fully put it together. Miles was rumored to be a finalist for the New Mexico job, which is one of the best mid-major jobs, which implies there’s a market for these kinds of guys.
This makes me happy, personally. I want to see Prohm do well.
4. T.J. Otzelberger?
Otzelberger, the Iowa State assistant-turned South Dakota State coach-turned UNLV coach is the favorite in the rumor mill. He took over a healthy program at South Dakota State and ran it well. He took over a scuffling program at UNLV and has been fine so far. He’s not a slam dunk hire, but Iowa State’s probably not going to get a slam dunk. Fred Hoiberg’s still early in his time at Nebraska and comes with a sizable buyout (roughly ten million, I believe, compared to roughly three million for Otzelberger). Otzelberger has a reputation for having had a hand in a lot of Iowa State’s best recruits during his time in Ames, so that, at least, is enticing. He could work out great. We just haven’t seen him build a low-major or mid-major power to the degree that makes one say he’d be good in Ames with much confidence.
Darian DeVries is the other natural name to come up, and he’s less of a known quantity than Otzelberger but has done more in terms of on-court results, earning a Missouri Valley team an at-large bid in his third season in Des Moines. That’s no small feat.
There are other names that will float around, and I have no idea how to handicap the race, but it’s telling that the immediate reaction from everyone in the industry was, “Otzelberger.” I’m not sold on him personally as the guy to bring Iowa State back to Hoiberg levels of success, but I’m not sure anyone can. I do think Otzelberger would probably, based on what he’s done so far elsewhere, get Iowa State to a range in which they could consistently be around the NIT picture, so long as the Big 12 doesn’t stay at the level of depth it currently enjoys. That’s not great, but Iowa State’s arguably been spoiled these last few years. Making the NIT consistently and getting in the field as a bubble team every few years might be a realistic goal, and is better than what Prohm could do outside of one three-game stretch two years ago.
Another option that comes to mind is to try to go the Kansas State route and take a guy whose time with another high-major program has run its course. K-State’s had some success with Bruce Weber. Is there another guy like that available? It’s hard to think of one. Miles enjoys that good-guy reputation, but he hasn’t done as much as Weber did at Illinois. Archie Miller would be an interesting candidate, but he’s been an ass to the point that Iowa State would have to decide to accept that as part of his deal.
It’s a shame Nate Oats and Eric Musselman went where they did when they did. But maybe there’s another mid-major or low-major coach out there who would really be a slam dunk. Scott Nagy, from Wright State. DeVries.
5. What will happen to the roster?
It sounds like the official word on Tyrese Hunter is “no comment.” Beyond the impact of his remaining or departing, there are questions about those already on the roster. It’s possible there will be an exodus, but it’s also possible a new coach could bring some talent with him via transfers. There are a lot of encouraging pieces on the ISU roster. But they sure didn’t work out this season.
For the time being, it’s sad, and frankly, it’s not an inspiring situation. When Hoiberg left, it was scary because it was unclear if someone would be able to fill his shoes. With Prohm gone, it’s scary because the shoes aren’t much to fill. But maybe a rise is coming. Things weren’t exactly thriving when Greg McDermott left Ames.
