Penn State deserves the scorn. Don’t lump Illinois in with that. Illinois did its best.
It was a rather quiet week, more defined by what did not happen (Oklahoma survived Kansas) than by what did (Wake Forest and Army combined for 126 points). Still, things changed. The playoff picture can change. Let it hold the baby.
Let’s start by taking stock.
We’ve cited this the last two weeks, and we’re going to trot it out there again here. Over our seven years of this system, the 28 playoff teams have come from the following buckets:
- Undefeated Power Five/Notre Dame team (11 out of 11 possible teams)
- One-loss Power Five conference champion (14 out of 15 possible teams)
- One-loss Power Five not conference champion (3 out of 11* possible teams) [*2014 Baylor and 2014 TCU included in this bucket and not as conference champions because committee deemed them not conference champions]
Will we have to dig deeper than these buckets? We still don’t know. These are the teams with paths to them, as far as I can tell, with Oklahoma State losing for the first time and NC State and Penn State each picking up their second loss:
Undefeated Power Five/Notre Dame team:
- Georgia
- Oklahoma
- Michigan
- Michigan State
- Wake Forest
One-loss Power Five conference champion:
- Georgia
- Oklahoma
- Michigan
- Michigan State
- Wake Forest
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Oregon
- Mississippi
- Kentucky
- Baylor
- Oklahoma State
- Iowa
- Pittsburgh
One-loss Power Five not conference champion:
- Georgia
- Oklahoma
- Michigan
- Michigan State
- Wake Forest
- Kentucky
- Mississippi
- Baylor
- Notre Dame
That leaves us down to fifteen teams with a conventional playoff path. Remember, though: We don’t know if a one-loss Power Five not-champion will be chosen ahead of a two-loss Power Five champion, or ahead of an undefeated Group of Five team (with the exception that we can be pretty confident that there’s virtually no way for UTSA to make the field). There are scenarios where a one-loss Power Five champion might not be chosen at all. There are few hard and fast rules here. We only have a seven-season sample. With that in mind, we’re keeping an eye on every Power Five conference race, plus the Group of Five undefeateds, ranks that now consist of just Cincinnati, SMU, San Diego State, and UTSA.
Where does this all leave us? Well, our current “contenders” and “factors” dichotomy looks like this (contenders = teams it’s reasonable to think will make the playoff, factors = teams it’s reasonable to think could make the playoff):
Contenders: Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Alabama, Michigan, Oregon
Welcome back, Oregon. With your win at UCLA and your scamp brother Oregon State beating up Utah, we’re raising you up to contender status once more. You might not be favored in every game the rest of the way through the Pac-12, but you might be. We don’t know yet. Close enough for us.
Welcome as well to Michigan, who we’ve realized might have a pretty good case at 11-1 should they lose to Ohio State. With Alabama projecting to be an underdog if they do make the SEC Championship, 11-1 might matter.
Even if Alabama’s 11-2, though, it wouldn’t be a shock to see them included in many contexts. It’ll depend on all sorts of other things, but for the moment, we’re keeping them around, especially since they wouldn’t be a big underdog against Georgia.
As for Oklahoma…
Goodness, guys. That was awful. You survived in the end, but you trailed entering the fourth quarter?? Yikes. Outgained through the air by Kansas. And the defense wasn’t even the biggest problem.
At 8-0 and with a home game against Texas Tech next week followed by a week idle, Oklahoma’s still in a good spot. They have a loss to give heading into the Baylor-Iowa State-Oklahoma State triad, they may have nearly lost to Kansas but they didn’t actually lose to Kansas. Still…they need to be better to win the Big 12. The Big 12 is not a joke, Lincoln.
Factors: Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Mississippi
Each of these teams has one big thing working against it. For Cincinnati, it’s their Group of Five status. For Pitt, it’s the loss to Western Michigan. For Mississippi, it’s that Alabama beat them as badly as they did. But the early-season nature of those losses, plus Cincinnati’s victory over Notre Dame (which just dodged one of its toughest remaining tests), make these three the ones that might not “crash” the party, but could be on the guestlist should three of our current contenders stumble. A lot of this is guesswork, but this is our perception right now of the situation.
Having gone through all that, let’s talk about the games themselves:
Pac-12
Oregon got a much-needed win, on the road over a solid-not-great UCLA team. It’s the kind of game a playoff contender should win. It’s also the kind of game Oregon looked poised to lose. Big victory for the Ducks, who now host Colorado and Washington State over the next three weeks, sandwiching a trip to Seattle.
Oregon State beat Utah, and 1) the Beavers are 5-2; 2) Oregon doesn’t have to be quite so scared of Utah now. Big yards-per-play advantage for Oregon State, which points towards Utah underwhelm rather than luck.
Next week, keep an eye on UCLA/Utah, which should have at least some say in who wins the South. Arizona State hosts Wazzu.
ACC
Wake Forest survived Army in a game in which there was only one punt. The Deacs pulled away on a pick-six in the third quarter and kept their hosts at arm’s reach from there. Only two Wake Forest drives didn’t end in a touchdown, and one of those was the kneeldown at the end.
Elsewhere in the league, Pitt beat Clemson, and the Kenny Pickett buzz is growing. Pitt, as we said above, has a terrible loss to Western Michigan on its résumé, but it won in Knoxville, has now beaten Clemson at home, and is the clear ACC favorite. Make of that what you will.
Miami beat NC State, which was not improbable. The Wolfpack now have a conference loss, but with Clemson losing and a trip to Winston-Salem remaining, they have a solid shot at winning the Atlantic.
Next week, Pitt hosts that dangerous Miami team while Wake Forest gets to play Duke. NC State hosts Louisville. Clemson/Florida State is also happening, if you want to feel nostalgia for the brief Fisher/Swinney rivalry of import.
Big 12
Iowa State held on to beat Oklahoma State, and the Cyclones are suddenly up at the forefront in the beyond-Oklahoma Big 12. I believe they hold the current tiebreaker among themselves, the Pokes, and Baylor, and given how bad Oklahoma looked as they escaped Kansas, it’s not outlandish to think the Cyclones might be favored in a neutral-site matchup with the Sooners if it happens soon enough.
Next week, Iowa State goes to West Virginia, Oklahoma State gets its chance to host Kansas, and Oklahoma hosts Texas Tech. In the big one, Baylor hosts Texas, who has two league losses (to the Oklahomas) but is, at least for the moment, still a title race factor itself.
Big Ten
The number of people I’ve seen and heard say, “That was the worst football game I’ve ever watched,” of Penn State/Illinois has me wondering why so many people were watching Penn State/Illinois. Regardless of those sort of lifestyle choices, though, Penn State’s toast. Two conference losses now, one in the most embarrassing fashion possible, and you do have to wonder if a James Franklin breakup is in order.
Wisconsin walloped Purdue, and while I’m not seeing a line yet, the Badgers are fairly likely to be favored next week when Iowa comes to Madison. Win that, and they’re back in control of the West, with one-conference-loss Minnesota having yet to visit the Hawkeyes and host the Badgers, not to mention play other losable games.
Michigan and Ohio State each took care of business, beating Northwestern and Indiana, respectively. At the top of the ticket next week, above Iowa/Wisconsin, is Michigan’s trip to East Lansing, and somewhere else around those two is Penn State’s visit to Columbus.
SEC
Tennessee hung with Alabama until the fourth quarter, when a 21-0 run to finish the game dashed the Vols’ hopes. Hopefully that fanbase recognizes how well things are going in Josh Heupel’s first year. Curious what the line will look like when they go to Kentucky in two weeks.
Mississippi beat LSU by two scores, Texas A&M crushed South Carolina. The SEC West stays deep.
Next week’s the Florida/Georgia game, with Mississippi heading to Auburn and Kentucky playing in Starkville. If you’re a sadist, Vanderbilt hosts Mizzou. Alabama is idle.
Cincinnati
The Bearcats survived the United States Naval Academy, and what more could you ask of that game than survival? I don’t care that Navy’s 1-6 now. Their whole job, as an institution, is to not make things easy on an opposing force.
Notre Dame beating USC keeps Cincinnati’s proxy war alive, and SMU beating Tulane keeps a good foil available within the AAC. Houston has a loss to Texas Tech from Labor Day Weekend, or else they’d also be undefeated. Not a lot of depth in the AAC this year, but there are at least within-league unbeatens. Next week, Cincinnati plays at Tulane while SMU goes to Houston. Notre Dame, living in this section until Cincinnati loses or the Irish get back to being a factor themselves, hosts UNC.
Other Group of Five Undefeateds
Coastal Carolina’s run has ended, and in noble fashion, losing at Appalachian State in a spectacular Wednesday night game. Even in their death, they give to us.
UTSA beat Louisiana Tech and now has a week off before going to currently-one-loss UTEP. Are you drooling? Many are drooling. I’m drooling a little. We should do a post on UTSA. They’ve got a ton of potential as a school and athletic department.
San Diego State beat Air Force in Colorado Springs, moving to 7-0 with a decently manageable path ahead of them. They’ll host Fresno State next week in a good one.
FCS
Defending champion Sam Houston State remains undefeated, beating Jacksonville State 42-7. Weber State got a huge win at Eastern Washington to revitalize their playoff hopes, triumphing 35-34. Kennesaw State keeps rolling through the Big South. James Madison took care of business at Delaware. Northern Iowa bested South Dakota State in Brookings to get back above .500 and reestablish themselves as a factor nationally. Missouri State gave North Dakota State a game, but couldn’t pull off the upset. Illinois State messed up South Dakota’s playoff plans. McNeese took down Incarnate Word in Lake Charles. Southeastern Louisiana kept rolling. Princeton beat Harvard in five overtimes the day after Columbia stunned Dartmouth, putting Princeton suddenly atop the Ivy League race with their trip to Hanover still two weeks away. South Carolina State is looking like the MEAC favorite. Jackson State keeps marching through the SWAC, with the Prairie View/Alcorn race getting better and better atop the West Division.
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I assume College Gameday’s going to East Lansing next Saturday. Can’t see where else it would be. Should be quite a scene. Games for the week start Thursday, but nothing of national consequence until Saturday. See you along the way.
