What a trade deadline by Atlanta’s front office.
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What Happened
Atlanta 3, Houston 2
In the bottom of the seventh, deadline acquisition Jorge Soler hit a pinch-hit home run to give Atlanta the lead. In the top of the eighth, deadline acquisition Eddie Rosario made a tricky catch on a Jose Altuve fly ball at the wall to keep that lead.
Of course, there was more before that.
Houston had put the pressure on Atlanta opener Dylan Lee in the first, with Kyle Wright summoned early to put out the fire. By the end of the inning, it was 1-0 Astros, and another would be tacked on in the fourth when Altuve homered, the lone damage to Wright’s stat line following a white-knuckle, three-walk/three-strikeout fourteen outs. Atlanta had gotten to the heart of its bullpen, but they trailed by a pair. Zack Greinke had dealt four innings of three-strikeout, no-walk ball. He’d bought the visitors their time.
It was in the sixth, against Brooks Raley, that Eddie Rosario doubled with one out, and when Raley walked Freddie Freeman, Dusty Baker called on Phil Maton. Maton got Ozzie Albies to go down swinging, but Maton couldn’t get Austin Riley, who roped one into left on a line to plate Rosario and make it 2-1. Maton got out of it, striking out Travis d’Arnaud, but the pressure was on, and in the seventh, with Cristian Javier in, Dansby Swanson homered one batter before Soler went deep to put Atlanta in front with a lead they would keep.
The Heroes
Win Probability Added leaders, from FanGraphs:
- Soler (0.21)
- Swanson (0.19)
- Greinke (0.18) – One note: I just realized I may have been ignoring hitting WPA for pitchers in NL parks so far this postseason, at least here and there. Apologies to those wronged.
- Will Smith (0.17)
- Riley (0.15)
What It Means
Atlanta is now a single game away from winning it all, with FanGraphs rating them about 85% likely to close out the series and betting markets concurring.
Other Notes
- Greinke hit a ball 104 miles per hour for a single in the second that might be the last hit by a non-two-way pitcher for a long, long time.
- Altuve had two hits for the Astros. Yordan Alvarez and Yuli Gurriel walked twice. Michael Brantley also reached base two times.
- Rosario and Riley each had a pair of hits for Atlanta. Freeman was on base twice.
- Chris Martin, Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson, and Smith combined for four shutout innings for Atlanta to close out the game, notching three strikeouts while walking none.
- Baker turned to Ryan Pressly once Atlanta had taken the lead, and he performed well, striking out four and walking just one while recording five outs. He threw 33 pitches, though, making his effectiveness tonight uncertain.
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Speaking of tonight…
The Basics
Where: Truist Park
When: 8:15 PM EDT
Broadcast: FOX
Starting Pitchers: Tucker Davidson (ATL), Framber Valdez (HOU)
Odds: HOU -115; ATL +105; o/u 8½ (o -115) [English translation: The Astros are roughly 52% likely to send the series back to Houston, while Atlanta’s roughly 48% likely to grab the title tonight; the expected number of runs is something like 8.6]
The Details
Valdez had some struggles in Game 1, allowing five earned runs while recording just six outs. He’ll need to do a lot tonight if he’s going to give the Astros a good chance to win, with Pressly having thrown 33 pitches last night (across multiple innings of work) and both Raley and Ryne Stanek having thrown on back-to-back nights. The bullpen as a whole isn’t too taxed, but Pressly’s the most important piece, and that’s a lot of pitches for the guy to throw before going out there with no rest, especially now, more than eight months after he reported to spring training.
For Atlanta, it’s another bullpen game due to Charlie Morton’s broken leg. Davidson isn’t quite as inexperienced as Lee, but that isn’t saying much. He’s made five career MLB starts, four of them this year, and has a 5.39 career FIP with a worse xERA. The man is left-handed. Also, if you’re wondering, no he isn’t from Georgia with that name, but he is from Amarillo, so it’s close to tracking.
The Atlanta bullpen could be defined as taxed. A.J. Minter got the night off, but Smith, Matzek, and Jackson each pitched in both Game 3 and Game 4. None of those four guys have thrown more than 17 pitches in an outing while the series has been in Atlanta, but it adds up. Don’t be surprised if there’s some late scoring.
That said, those four have been strong collectively on the postseason. Smith’s thrown ten shutout innings, striking out eight and walking just three. Minter’s allowed one run, it was earned, and he’s thrown eleven innings while striking out 16 (!!) and walking just two. Matzek’s worked 13.2 innings, he’s allowed three earned runs, and he’s struck out 20 (!!!) while walking just four. Jackson allowed that big home run in Game 3 of the NLCS, but he’s allowed five earned over 8.2 innings, striking out nine and walking four. Combined, I believe that’s a 1.87 ERA with 11.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9, which is all…quite good.
The Stars
I’m fixating a bit on Pressly, because bullpen decisions are an easy thing to pin on a manager and it was an odd choice by Baker last night (you could’ve made Pressly throw two innings to begin with). That said, this will more be decided by the bats, and there are some big ones. Freeman. Albies. Correa. Altuve. Bregman. Rosario. And, of course: Jorge Soler.
