So, the Cubs *Can* Beat the Brewers

Cubs pitchers only struck out two batters. Cubs hitters struck out fourteen times. Somehow, that worked?

Relieving to finally beat the Brewers in one. Happy note to end that subplot on.

Some notes:

  • Patrick Wisdom officially has the Cubs’ rookie home run record, absolutely smacking his 27th. His wRC+ is a solid 118, but his xwOBA is a merely-average .319. Make of that all what you will.
  • Trayce Thompson homered, and for those wondering if he’s about to be another of these Schwindel/Wisdom-type guys, I will no longer be saying never, but he’s 30, he was worth -1.8 fWAR over 2017 and ’18 (his last two in the big leagues), and he raked in 2015 with the White Sox, managing 1.4 fWAR in just 135 plate appearances. Make of it all whatever you will, but probably nobody to put much hope on at the moment.
  • Frank Schwindel annihilated a double after Matt Duffy doubled to tie the game in the eighth. Schwindel has a rough wOBA/xwOBA gap, like Wisdom does, but his wRC+ is a staggering 168 and even his xwOBA’s at least at .330, which isn’t where you want your first baseman’s to be but isn’t bad. Anthony Rizzo’s career wOBA is .364, for reference, and it’s .339 on the season (not that Schwindel/Rizzo was a binary decision in ANY way).
  • David Bote did the David Bote thing, hitting two balls 105 mph or harder and getting zero hits from the two of them. Has he ever taken a rock home from a national park?
  • Rough day for all pitchers, almost, but Rowan Wick’s struggles were a bummer and a reminder of how much of an unknown guy he is/how much time he missed with injury.

***

The Diaspora:

Jake Arrieta lost to the Cardinals, straining his groin while pitching to six batters and recording just one out. Joc Pederson doubled and singled in Atlanta’s win in San Francisco.

Around the Division:

With the Cardinals winning again and the Reds losing again, St. Louis’s playoff probability is now up to 72.9% on FanGraphs. What a turnaround for them.

Up Next:

Two with Minnesota at Wrigley, but they’re tomorrow and Wednesday.

Cubs News:

Nico Hoerner and Keegan Thompson were activated yesterday, with Thompson throwing two meh innings, walking two but not allowing a run. To make space, Nick Martini was optioned back to AAA and Dillon Maples was DFA’d, answering a question regarding Maples and the looming 40-man roster crunch that didn’t really need much answering at this point. Just never worked out with him. Hopefully it does somewhere else. Maybe Seattle, for example. Nowhere in the NL Central, please.

Cubs Thoughts:

Again, nice to beat the Brewers, even just for the psychological piece of being reminded it’s possible. Wisdom and Schwindel’s xwOBA’s are especially concerning given teams will be adjusting to them, but the idea of the two of them and another bat (like Alfonso Rivas, who’s only 24 and has plenty of minor league options) as part of a platoon situation in which Wisdom and Rivas also spend some time in the outfield doesn’t sound like a bad idea. The Cubs are only going to go out and get so many free agents. Starting pitching is a more obvious need. If you’re managing to compete and it’s clear you need a bat to step in for those guys, you can go get one in July. If it doesn’t work but you got good starting pitching, your offseason needs prior to 2023 are more clear.

The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. Was asked to do NIT Bracketology in 2018 and never looked back. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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