I’ll be honest. I’m trying to not get too excited. This could be a lot of fun.
The…Maybe Big Ones
We might not have any big games this week. But it seems likely we’ll have at least a few. It’s hard, because what we really have is a lot of games that could be important—games where a contender or a factor or a team we have to note is playing with a lot to lose and a decent probability of losing it. Of the twelve teams with either a conventional playoff path (a path that’s been successfully trodden before) or a ranking close enough that we can’t take our eyes off them (Cincinnati), six are either underdogs or favored to win by two scores or fewer. Five are either underdogs or favored to win by one score or fewer. Let’s go through those, in order of expected playoff impact:
Oregon @ Washington – 7:30 PM EDT; ABC
Oregon’s the favorite, and it’s not their toughest game left, but they could very well lose it, and if they do, the Pac-12 is very likely eliminated from playoff contention, decreasing the number of lanes merging into the ultimate four. Remember: Washington has the talent to beat Oregon. They’ve shown they’re good enough. They’ve just been very, very bad at times, too. It’s almost like they’re 18 to 23 years old.
Michigan State @ Purdue – 3:30 PM EDT; ABC
Sparty’s even less a favorite than the Ducks, heading into West Lafayette expected to win by just a field goal. Michigan State’s neighbors in the race would really like the green and white to take a loss, because there’s a non-zero chance that an 11-1 Big Ten team whose only loss came at Ohio State will be a more preferable option in the committee’s eyes than, say, Cincy.
Purdue isn’t a direct part of the race, but they’re an important opponent for Notre Dame, who’s lurking around the fringes and sitting at the heart of Cincinnati’s argument. Ramifications all over the place.
Wake Forest @ North Carolina – 12:00 PM EDT; ABC
Wake is actually an underdog in this technical non-conference game (long story). It wouldn’t be a shock if they’re an underdog in every game they play for the rest of the year, so get used to that. At some point, though, they need to actually lose, and while that’s expected to happen, and while 12-1 might well not be enough for a team in that bad a league to make the cut, this loss would almost assuredly close the ACC lane as a whole.
It’s probably inevitable. But the sooner it happens, the more relieved the fringier teams will feel.
Oklahoma State @ West Virginia – 3:30 PM EDT; ESPN
Baylor @ TCU – 3:30 PM EDT; FOX
The Big 12’s presumed second-place race is of interest to teams all over the place, because the possibility of two 12-1 Big 12 teams is a precarious one for others in the mix. Neither Baylor nor the Pokes are a significant favorite tomorrow on the road, but each is expected to get the job done.
Ohio State @ Nebraska – 12:00 PM EDT; FOX
The Buckeyes were a bit underwhelming last week against Penn State, and while they check out well in the numbers, there’s a lurking suspicion that they just might not be that good. They’re a two-score favorite in Lincoln, which is much more than any of these other five teams can say, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. What a scene it would be if it did.
The Other Six
Missouri @ Georgia – 12:00 PM EDT; ESPN
LSU @ Alabama – 7:00 PM EDT; ESPN
The other two contenders (a contender is a team it’s reasonable to expect will make the playoff, a factor is a team it’s reasonable to expect could make the playoff) in action have fairly easy ones, at least by expectation. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s idle.
Tulsa @ Cincinnati – 3:30 PM EDT; ESPN2
Navy @ Notre Dame – 3:30 PM EDT; NBC
Team Bearcat (by choice or not) has a pair of AAC foes to deal with in the Rust Belt, with both Cincy and the Irish heavy favorites. Don’t count Notre Dame out yet, by the way. They’re very much alive in the playoff race, even if their fate is largely out of their hands.
Indiana @ Michigan – 7:30 PM EDT; FOX
And don’t forget about Michigan. The Wolverines still grade out impressively in systems like Bill Connelly’s SP+. They also get Ohio State at home this year. Not a good chance, but a chance.
21 (!!) More Fun Ones
Plenty of other fun:
Auburn @ Texas A&M – 3:30 PM EDT; CBS
This might belong in that first bucket, but I didn’t want to get too deep into the chance of a two-loss SEC team making the field that isn’t named Alabama. We might get there, but we’re not there yet. Both teams are playing well lately. Both teams are on the verge of being a concern for Alabama in the West. Neither’s knocking on the door, but they’re at least on the block.
Mississippi State @ Arkansas – 4:00 PM EDT; SECN
Liberty @ Mississippi – 12:00 PM EDT; SECN
Tennessee @ Kentucky – 7:00 PM EDT; ESPN2
Nothing of huge national import from these three, but three good games that will mean a lot for the teams involved.
Virginia Tech @ Boston College – Friday, 7:30 PM EDT; ESPN2
North Carolina State @ Florida State – 4:00 PM EDT; ACCN
Clemson @ Louisville – 7:30 PM EDT; ACCN
We only mention this first one because it’s Friday night, but it should be a fine watch. Not great football, but can you really always tell?
In the second, FSU’s trying to pull together a last-ditch bowl campaign while NC State has its eyes on a conference title. All while in the third, Clemson tries to keep alive its own hopes at continuing to run America’s second-worst Power Five league (sorry, Pac-12: Better luck next year).
There are other ACC games going on, but we can’t bear to mention those.
Utah @ Stanford – Friday, 10:30 PM EDT; FS1
USC @ Arizona State – 10:30 PM EDT; ESPN
Oregon State @ Colorado – 7:00 PM EDT; P12N
In the Pac-12, we’ve got a conference title race that’s fairly wide open. Oregon State could move into a tie for the lead of the North with a loss by Oregon. Utah could officially put away the South. Arizona State’s trying to hold on to that last shred of hope, one game back of Utah having lost the head-to-head.
Texas @ Iowa State – 7:30 PM EDT; FS1
It might matter. We’ll see. The thing about the Big 12 is that Oklahoma State and Baylor aren’t that good. If one or both of them lose and Iowa State wins, the Cyclones pop right back in (to the conference, not the country). Please stop allowing me to hope.
UTSA @ UTEP – 10:15 PM EDT; ESPN2
God is good. What a game this is. UTEP has only two losses. UTSA’s undefeated. Massive contest in the Sun Bowl. Should be a lot of fun.
Boise State @ Fresno State – 7:00 PM EDT; CBSSN
San Diego State @ Hawaii – 11:00 PM EDT; FS1
SMU @ Memphis – 12:00 PM EDT; ESPNU
Houston @ South Florida – 7:30 PM EDT; ESPNU
If you want weird playoff implications, Fresno State and San Diego State are part of the bizarre propping up of Oregon, while Cincinnati could really use SMU and Houston to do some winning.
North Dakota State @ South Dakota State – 3:00 PM EDT; ESPN+
Missouri State @ Southern Illinois – 1:00 PM EDT; ESPN3
Montana State @ Eastern Washington – 4:00 PM EDT; ESPN+
Southeastern Louisiana @ Incarnate Word – 3:00 PM EDT; ESPN3
The game of the regular season in the FCS is going down between NDSU and SDSU, while Missouri State and SIU provide a solid MVFC undercard. Big conference title race matchups in the Big Sky and Southland, as well.
Princeton @ Dartmouth – Friday, 6:00 PM EDT; ESPNU
And in the biggest conference title race matchup, Princeton and Dartmouth are going at it right now. Dartmouth has a loss, so would likely be hoping on some help to win it outright, while Princeton’s undefeated in league play.
Viewing Guide
Tomorrow’s simple: Turn on ABC and leave it on until you get to UTSA/UTEP time. Tonight, I’d go with Princeton and Dartmouth and then the Utah game. You don’t need to watch Boston College. No one can make you watch Boston College.
