1. That was a big one.
We were saying the goal was to not get swept. The Cubs didn’t get swept. Not house money today, exactly, but a high-upside, low-downside game with first place (at least temporary first place) on the table depending what happens in Cincinnati.
2. Is Patrick Wisdom ever going to stop?
The Cubs’ starting third baseman has a 282 wRC+ now over 44 plate appearances, which I believe means he could make outs in his next 40 PA’s and still be a league-average hitter. The home run last night broke the game open, getting across that three-run threshold and earning a little more rest for Ryan Tepera and Craig Kimbrel.
3. Rizzo! Contreras!
Anthony Rizzo’s double chased Dinelson Lamet and gave the Cubs some breathing room, and his home run put the game away. Willson Contreras’s home run gave the Cubs the, “Whoa, we might win this,” moment, which was especially key with Zach Davies dodging a lot of bullets at that point.
4. Zach Davies pitched a gem.
It was Davies’s best outing of the season by game score, tied for his best in strikeouts and walks, and brought his FIP down to 4.52 while his ERA sits at 4.45. His xERA’s still a hard swallow-provoking 6.21, and even last night he had plenty of luck, but let’s enjoy what it was, which was six innings of shutout ball (and the contact did get better as the game went on).
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Around the Division:
The Brewers beat the Reds in Cincinnati, pulling away from what had been a tight game to win 5-1. Adrian Houser’s ERA is down to 3.66, but thankfully his xERA and FIP are both above 4.40, meaning while he or someone of his ilk would be a welcome addition for the Cubs, he’s still just a serviceable back-of-the-rotation guy for Milwaukee, as opposed to potentially a fourth ace (you know how scared I am of Freddy Peralta). The Cardinals lost again, this time 10-1 in Cleveland. Carlos Martínez allowed five runs, all earned, across four innings of work, but he did strike out seven.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee: 34-26, 59.9%
2. Cubs: 34-27, 24.2%
3. St. Louis: 31-30, 7.8%
4. Cincinnati: 28-30, 8.0%
5. Pittsburgh: 23-36, 0.0%
It’s Brett Anderson opposite Vladimir Gutierrez tonight in Cincinnati. Adam Wainwright opposes Jean Carlos Mejía in St. Louis.
Up Next:
The rubber match. (First one of those since May 23rd!)
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Whom:
Cubs vs. San Diego
When:
3:10 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Petco Park
Weather:
Wind blowing across and slightly in at ten to fifteen miles per hour. Temperatures around seventy degrees, presumably with the sweetest manna you’ve ever tasted wafting down over the crowd while the faint sounds of harps lulls the city into a comfortable bliss.
Starting Pitchers:
Jake Arrieta vs. Yu Darvish
The Opponent:
It’s happening. The Cubs have to face Yu Darvish.
It’s wonderful and amazing and beautiful how beloved Darvish is now after taking so much heat early in his time in Chicago. You don’t know players personally, but Darvish’s efforts to answer questions in English, interact with fans on Twitter, share his cheekiness with the world, etc. went such a long way in addition to how much his pitching did for his relationship with the fans. He was a great pitcher for the Cubs, and he was a cool public persona as well.
Oh also he’s currently twelfth in the majors in fWAR, with a 2.25 ERA, 2.79 xERA, and 3.08 FIP. I hate doing this and I do think it wasn’t as terrible a trade as it’s made out to be, but can you imagine that pitcher in place of Zach Davies in the Cubs’ rotation? Woof.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +190 underdogs, with the Padres at -210. That comes out to about a one-in-three chance of a win. Which isn’t terrible, I guess, considering it’s ace vs. fourth starter on the road. The over/under’s at eight and leans towards the under.
Cubs News:
Javy Báez sat again last night. Adbert Alzolay was placed on the IL with the blister issue (it’s worth remembering that Alzolay is someone the Cubs likely want to protect from overwork, so we should expect them to take advantage of opportunities to rest him when opportunities present themselves). Cory Abbott was sent back to AAA, with Kohl Stewart coming up to fill Alzolay’s place on the roster (and in the rotation) while Alec Mills was activated from his rehab stint. Nick Martini cleared waivers and accepted the demotion to AAA. Báez is the big question mark.
Cubs Thoughts:
You’re not going to get dominant Arrieta right now, which is something we all and Arrieta should probably accept. A hope, then, is that he can get through four or five, hold the Padres to two runs, and leave with the game tied with presumably the whole bullpen minus Mills, who threw 24 pitches in the ninth last night, available. That’s asking a bit of Arrieta and a bit of the Cubs’ offense against Darvish, but that’s the hope today. Just give the team a chance.
