The number of confirmed coronavirus deaths in the United States passed 200,000 in recent days, a number equal to the entire population of Salt Lake City, slightly larger than a third of Wyoming’s population, and far larger than any single cause of death in this country annually besides heart disease and cancer.
And that number—the number of confirmed coronavirus deaths—is still likely lower than the true total.
This phenomenon received more attention earlier in the pandemic, when testing shortages and overwhelmed hospitals in particular areas left many likely coronavirus deaths unattributed to the virus. But it still has an impact on the numbers.
The Economist has been attempting to measure this in the same way historians estimate deaths from, say, the bubonic plague: They’re comparing the expected number of deaths over a given period of time, based on numbers from recent years, to the actual number of deaths. In the United States, through the end of July (it takes a while for mortality data to make its way through states’ systems), there were approximately 215,000 excess deaths beyond the expected total, compared to approximately 153,000 confirmed coronavirus deaths through the same time period. In short, the death toll from the coronavirus is likely at least 62,000 higher in the United States than the “official” count.
There’s been speculation (and politicking) regarding “deaths of despair” due to the economic hardships brought about by the virus. There’s been similar speculation (and Twittering, especially in the pandemic’s early days) about lives being saved by things like “people driving less.” There isn’t much confirmed, reliable data yet on either of these phenomena, but it’s fair to consider them when examining these 62,000 excess deaths. To consider them fairly, though, one must engage in the exploration of a lot of hypotheticals. For example: Would the economy be better off if we hadn’t locked down? Possibly not. In a recent edition of FiveThirtyEight’s poll of quantitative macroeconomists, 74% of the 32 surveyed think the economy would be in a better position had initial lockdowns been more aggressive. In a similar vein, less aggressive lockdowns would have almost certainly led to more coronavirus deaths, especially with mask-wearing not forcefully recommended in the lockdowns’ earliest days.
For what it’s worth, there were roughly 48,000 recorded suicides in the United States in 2018, and roughly 67,000 drug overdose deaths. Both of these numbers have been rising over at least the last decade or so. There were roughly 37,000 motor vehicle deaths, a number up from the lows of 2009-2014 but still down from the peak in the early 1970’s. Sure, these collateral deaths (or absences of death) may be impacting the excess death number, but given their normal magnitude, it’s unlikely either moves the needle by more than a few thousand deaths in either direction, and it will be difficult to parse out which changes in these death counts were collateral effects of the pandemic and which were the result of other trends.
In total, the coronavirus death toll is likely closer to 300,000 than 200,000, especially when one considers the likelihood of uncounted deaths from the last month and a half, which have yet to be examined by The Economist.
And it’s still rising.
