Playoff baseball.
It’s here.
The Red Sox/Yankees rivalry might not be what it was in 2004. It may have dimmed some even from 2018, when Joe Kelly changed this website’s historic trajectory with a quote about Greg Maddux. But man…Red Sox/Yankees. Single elimination.
This is fun.
The Basics
Where: Fenway Park
When: 8:08 PM EDT
Broadcast: ESPN
Starting Pitchers: Nathan Eovaldi (BOS); Gerrit Cole (NYY)
Odds: NYY -130; BOS +110; O/U 8 (u -115)
The Details
For the Red Sox, a big story is J.D. Martinez’s absence due to an ankle injury sustained on Sunday in the regular season finale. Martinez has the fourth-highest wRC+ of any Red Sox regular at the plate with a 128 in the metric. The lineup will miss him. The lineup will also, however, miss José Iglesias.
Iglesias, released by the Angels in early September, was added by the Red Sox for the stretch run, becoming something of a key figure in their survival. Over 23 games with the team, he posted a 148 wRC+, starting a number of games at second base, which in turn allowed Kike Hernández to play the outfield. Because Iglesias was added after September began, he isn’t eligible to play postseason games with the Red Sox, and without both him and Martinez, Boston is turning to Christian Arroyo to play second base tonight, where he’ll be making just his third start since the beginning of September and his sixth start since the beginning of August, having been sidelined with everything from a hamstring injury to Covid.
On the mound for the Sox is Eovaldi, a star of the 2018 postseason who scuffled in 2019 but has become a stud once more this year. Among qualified starters, only two have a better FIP this season than Eovaldi, and neither of those guys pitches in the American League.
After Eovaldi, it gets dicey. The Red Sox bullpen is fine statistically, but it isn’t exactly a well-humming machine right now. Matt Barnes, who had a spectacular beginning to the year, has a 9.26 ERA since August started and a FIP that’s not much better. Garrett Whitlock’s had a great year but recently missed a couple weeks with a pectoral injury. Hansel Robles, acquired from the Twins at the deadline, has had a rough go of things at times, though he enters the game on more than a month-long scoreless streak. Adam Ottavino’s allowed runs in four of his last five appearances. Nick Pivetta, a starter for the team, made his first relief appearance on Sunday and earned the save. There are others, too. It’s not clear who will play which role, but it’s certain to be a committee approach.
For the Yankees, it isn’t all healthy either. DJ LeMahieu is out with a hip injury. Luke Voit has been shut down with a knee problem. With LeMahieu out, Gleyber Torres has been leading off lately, but he has just a 94 wRC+ and Anthony Rizzo, tonight’s leadoff man, has notched a 113 over 200 post-deadline PA’s, a fine mark but not what you want out of your first baseman. The LeMahieu loss isn’t as significant as losing Martinez, but it’s no small thing, and Voit had a 127 wRC+ over August and September.
Opposing Eovaldi will be Cole, who has started a Wild Card Game before back in 2015 in Pittsburgh. He was outdueled that night by Jake Arrieta and taken deep by tonight’s Red Sox leadoff hitter, Kyle Schwarber.
For all the noise about Cole and sticky stuff, he had a great year, and while not the Cy Young favorite in betting markets, he’ll likely end up among the top two or three finishers. He’s had a few rough outings these last two weeks, allowing five home runs in three starts, but his season-long FIP rivals that of Eovaldi and hasn’t been terribly worse since the rule enforcement changed.
Out of the bullpen, the Yankees have what may turn out to be their highest-leverage player, Jonathan Loáisiga, a multi-inning reliever recently sidelined with a shoulder injury. He’s back, and he was effective over the weekend, facing five crucial batters on Sunday to keep the game scoreless and allow the Yankees to ultimately clinch tiebreaker avoidance. After him, Aaron Boone likely hopes to go straight to Aroldis Chapman, who had his struggles earlier this year but enters the game having allowed just one run in his last ten outings, striking out over half of batters faced over that stretch.
The Stars
Beyond Cole and Loáisiga for the Yankees, it’s that front of the order, the jumbo package: Rizzo, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Gallo. For the Red Sox, the Rafael Devers/Xander Bogaerts tandem in the heart of the order and the left side of the infield will have its chances. But it’s October, and it’s baseball, and that means we might see some new stars, so don’t be surprised if Gio Urshela comes through in a big way for the Yankees, or if Hunter Renfroe pops one over the Monster for the Red Sox to become a Boston legend. It’s the Wild Card Game. It’s Red Sox/Yankees.
Game on.
