What’s a reasonable expectation for this year’s Cubs?
Let’s group the scenarios into five categories.
The Worst Case (20% Likely?)
The worst thing the Cubs can do is win fewer than 75 games and have an unproductive, painful sell-off in July. Injuries could add to this. The clubhouse could get chippy as players go unextended. The vibe could get quite bad. This is unlikely, but roughly equally possible to winning the division.
The Bad Case (40% Likely?)
The median outcome for the Cubs is something like an 80-win season, if FanGraphs is to be believed (and I believe it). Given that there are three other teams in the division capable of “figuring it out,” this would likely not result in playoff contention. This is another area in which a sell-off happens, but it maybe isn’t as severe of a sell-off, and it’s probably a scenario in which injuries don’t play a big role.
The Reasonable Goal (30% Likely?)
The optimistic-but-realistic goal is to manage a winning record and compete for the division title. In this case, the Cubs maybe don’t go all in at the trade deadline, but they do make a move or two to compete with the Brewers and/or the Cardinals and/or the Reds. It’s a fun enough year. It ends with either a narrow division loss or an apperance in the Division Series as a sizable underdog against the NL East champion.
The Unreasonable Goal (8% Likely?)
An unreasonable but attainable outcome (we’re talking about better than 90% of scenarios, here) is to win the division comfortably and have a fighting chance in the National League side of the playoffs. For this to happen, Kyle Hendricks and one or two more guys likely need to pitch well enough to get Cy Young votes, one or more core players need to have an MVP-candidate level season, and some help needs to be obtained in July. It’s not impossible, but it’s an almost-everything-goes-right case.
The Not Impossible But Dubious Goal (2% Likely?)
Making the World Series (which comes with a 50/50-ish shot of winning the World Series) is technically possible. But it’s going to be so very hard for this team. It will require everything to go right and a choice to be made to pursue everything going even better.
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Overall, especially looking at the first month of the schedule, if the Cubs can get out of April around the division lead, or at least somewhere around 14-12 or 15-11 (win five or more of the nine games against the Brewers, win both series against the Pirates, win at least one series against Atlanta or the Mets), and the reasonable goal—winning the division, or at least competing within it—will be in reach. To get the unreasonable goal in reasonable reach? Might need to win 17 or 18 games.
