Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Oregon still has a strong, manageable College Football Playoff path. If they win out, finishing 12-1 with a win in Columbus to their credit and just an overtime loss in Palo Alto to their detriment, it would be surprising to see them held out of the playoff field.
That said, it’s hard to go 12-1. Especially when you’re already 4-1.
That and everything else as we go around the country:
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SEC
Ok, we can start with the big boys. I heard someone, maybe on the Cincinnati broadcast, refer to Alabama and Georgia as playing in some territory between the NFL and college football, and honestly, they don’t sound too wrong. Alabama looked as impressive as usual, leading Mississippi 35-0 just a few minutes into the second half, while Georgia…wow. Georgia took an Arkansas team that well might be the second-best in the SEC West and beat them 37-0. Just a butt-kicking. Just a butt-kicking.
At this point, yes, it’s fair to say that if Alabama and Georgia can each go at least 12-1, each is probably in. Hard to see enough changing for one to be held out.
We’d been referring to Florida as a “factor” in our designation, meaning they had the path and the ability to make it reasonable to believe they could make the playoff.
They’re done now.
Technically, no, yes, they could still make this happen. But losing to Kentucky is generally a sign of more losses to come, and they’ve already got two. The Gators showed so much promise giving Alabama a game two weeks ago. Now, back to the drawing board, back to playing spoiler, back to aiming for a New Year’s Six bowl bid as the ceiling.
On the Kentucky side, Kentucky’s fun because every game they play is potentially a Kentucky loss, and with them yet to lose, that makes every game intensely interesting. The Wildcats are not a factor—it’s not reasonable to believe they could make the playoff at this point in time—but we certainly have our eye on them.
SEC West runner-up match next weekend, with Arkansas going to Oxford. How-far-they’ve-fallen game in College Station, where A&M hosts Bama and likely falls to .500. Georgia’s at 4-1 Auburn, who just won in Baton Rouge. Kentucky hosts LSU.
Big Ten
I was texting with a friend yesterday and we speculated that the Playoff could turn out to be exclusively an SEC and Big Ten affair. Iowa crushed Maryland in College Park on Friday night. Michigan crushed Wisconsin in Madison yesterday. Ohio State did the thing you would expect Ohio State to do to Rutgers. Penn State shut out Indiana. Ohio State’s still the “contender” in this league (they get Penn State at home, and if you’re wondering, the distinction between contender and factor is that with contenders, it’s not unreasonable to think they will make the playoff), but the others are strong factors.
Fun one next week in Iowa City as Penn State comes to town. Elsewhere, trap game for Michigan at Nebraska? Ohio State hosts Maryland. Michigan State’s at Rutgers. Wisconsin and Illinois are being forced to play one another, but no, they’re not playing the game at Guantanamo.
Pac-12
Oregon. Oregon! OREGON! What were you doing?!
The Ducks fell behind early at Stanford, came back,then lost in overtime. As we said up front, they’re far from dead, but they’re certainly skittering after that one. They’re a “contender,” but it’s a blurry line between them and the Penn States of the world. (Insert obligatory “Penns State?” here)
In the South, Arizona State beat UCLA handily in Los Angeles. Long way to go for the Sun Devils, but a road loss to BYU isn’t a terrible single mark against you.
Next weekend…not a lot. North-leading Oregon State goes to Washington State. Stanford plays in Tempe.
Big 12
Oklahoma survived yet another nailbiter, holding off a Kansas State charge after building a three-score lead midway through the fourth quarter. They’re fine until further notice, but further notice might come next week in Dallas, when they play Texas.
Oklahoma State beat Baylor and is undefeated themselves.
ACC
Maybe Clemson’s just bad?
The Tigers needed a late defensive stand to avoid moving to a losing record overall, instead handing Boston College their first loss of the campaign by a score of just 19-13. Curious what’s going on over there.
Wake Forest escaped Louisville and becomes the league’s lone unbeaten. They’ll visit Syracuse next week.
Cincinnati, BYU
Let us be abundantly clear: Cincinnati and BYU do not control their fate. Each could win out, win each game by multiple scores, and not end up in the College Football Playoff. Such is life when you are Cincinnati and BYU these days. Soon, guys. Soon.
That said, Cincinnati just beat a team that might not lose again on its home field, and that team is the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. This is new, and we don’t have precedent, and if we get just a little bit of chaos, it could be enough. We’ll see.
BYU, meanwhile, might be in the AP Poll’s top ten this week. Tough break for them to have Baylor lose to the Pokes, but they have some solid opportunities remaining to impress. Seven Power Five opponents in all. We’ll be watching, and for the sake of avoiding the What about BYU? question when we talk about Cincinnati, we’ll label the Cougars a “factor,” meaning we have five now: Penn State, Cincinnati, Iowa, Michigan, and BYU (to go with five contenders: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Ohio State).
Cincinnati hosts Temple next week. BYU hosts Boise State.
Notre Dame
But as Cincinnati taketh…the Irish are done. Good boost for teams like Georgia and Alabama, who might have survived a “12-1 UGA vs. 12-0 ND” conversation but didn’t want to be in that boat. Notre Dame was a factor. Now, they’re almost assuredly an also-ran, even if they go 11-1.
The Rest
SMU and UTSA are the lone undefeateds in Texas, and each, alongside fellow Go5 unbeaten Coastal Carolina, is interesting if probably already a lock to miss the playoff. Realistic aspirations of New Year’s Six berths for all these guys, and SMU is both Cincinnati’s biggest threat and its strongest ally as the Bearcats try to crash the CFP party.
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We’ll keep slogging away at the model and try to have team-by-team playoff probabilities to you soon. I’ll warn you, though: The Cincinnati thing is something new, and we might not know how the committee takes it until that final set of rankings comes out, even if we can make educated guesses based on the past and use the information the committee gives us along the way.
