That was really fun. Good for those guys, who’ve had a tough job on their hands these last few weeks. Some highlights beyond just the walkoff:
- Rafael Ortega has now been worth 1.3 fWAR on the season, despite not yet hitting 200 plate appearances.
- Ian Happ is close to pushing his batting average up past .200, which isn’t all that practically important but does have a certain feeling attached to it, and is a marker of things probably going bad, even if its overall assessment of a hitter’s performance isn’t the best. He’s now got a 125 wRC+ over his last 99 plate appearances, with a still-astronomical strikeout rate (35.4%) but a whole lot of pop (.241 ISO—and since we don’t talk about ISO much, ISO’s the gap between slugging percentage and batting average, which is then a reflection of power).
- Does David Bote lead the league in hard-hit outs? Probably not, because he missed all that time and was something of a platoon player by design early in the season. Anyway, he hit the ball harder than anyone else yesterday…and it was a double play. He also had a 403-foot flyout. Woof. Stay the course, man (Bote is now back below .200).
- Michael Hermosillo hit a big double. Patrick Wisdom hit a big single. Jason Heyward hit a big single. Frank Schwindel smoked a ball earlier in the game. Kyle Hendricks, of all people, hit a ball 100 miles per hour.
- Codi Heuer and Manny Rodríguez each pitched well in relief.
- Back to Hendricks: Seven innings, six strikeouts, no walks, no home runs. That’s progress for him, and even that Connor Joe leadoff double only had an xBA of .560, one of two balls Hendricks allowed to be put in play at 100 mph or harder.
Overall, it was a good night, even against the Rockies. They’re still a major league team.
***
Draft Watch:
The Cubs moved to seventh in the draft order, with the Nationals even in the standings games-wise but percentage points worse, meaning they’ve got the sixth pick. The Marlins, three games away, have the fifth pick. The Twins, one game away, have the eighth pick.
The Diaspora:
Craig Kimbrel took the loss for the White Sox in Toronto, allowing a run to score on a walk and a pair of wild pitches. Andrew Chafin had a good outing for Oakland.
Around the Division:
I’m really seeing nothing of note here.
Up Next:
Game 2
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Colorado
When:
7:05 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Looks like any rain should move out by gametime. Temperatures in the eighties, wind blowing out to left at five to ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Justin Steele vs. Germán Márquez
The Opponent:
It’s easy to forget Márquez is only 26. He’s already up to 15.7 career fWAR, with his worst more-than-three-start season a 2.4-fWAR effort in 2017 (he managed 2.3 in the shortened 2020). He’s at 3.3 this year behind a 3.57 FIP that’s right in line with his 3.78 xERA and 3.80 ERA. He’s also thrown the ninth-most innings in baseball, and the Rockies have him locked up through 2024. Maybe we shouldn’t call them so dysfunctional after all? *sees Trevor Story on their roster and shrugs*
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +120 underdogs, with their guests at -130 for a Chicago win probability of 43%. The over/under’s at nine.
Cubs News:
Nico Hoerner didn’t make his injury any worse the other night, but he’ll still likely take a few days off before trying another rehab game. Willson Contreras reportedly might DH this weekend against the White Sox.
Cubs Thoughts:
Since 2018, the Tampa Bay Rays have the fourth-most pitcher fWAR of any franchise. They have the second-lowest FIP and the third-lowest ERA. They’re also the face of baseball’s “opener” movement, which I bring up to say that as I look at Manny Rodríguez and Codi Heuer and Keegan Thompson and Justin Steele, and as I look at the weakness of the rotation, I wonder if the Cubs might opt to try some non-traditional things next year with the pitching staff and see if they can make them work.
For the time being, let’s view Steele as a normal starter, from whom I’d personally like to see something like five innings, six strikeouts, two walks, and just one home run tonight.
