Rafael Ortega Is a Throwback

1. Willy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What a moment that was. Good for him.

2. Rafael Ortega is a throwback.

Not to the 90’s or 80’s or anything like that. To the Cubs circa 2013. The Cubs where these quadruple-A guys have to contribute, and sometimes do contribute, and when they do it’s a reminder of the joy of a baseball game, even a probably meaningless one. That was fun. He smoked that ball. Started everything. And for at least a day, there’s that teensy glimmer of hope, however narrow the window still is.

3. A pretty good outing from Adbert Alzolay.

No complaints, and no home runs this time which was great, and his xERA’s down to 4.79 now which is pretty good. I do still think we should acknowledge that Alzolay is not, say, Ian Anderson. He’s not a stud rookie who’s going to mow hitters down and has years of promise ahead of him. But he is promising. And he has a lot of upside. And he seems like a good clubhouse guy, and he’s already up over eighty innings which feels like a good sign for building him into something of a stalwart in the rotation. Just don’t ask him to be an ace. Not for another year, at the very least. That’s putting too much on him. His ideal plateau comes as a third starter or something of that sort, just for a long, reliable time.

***

Around the Division:

The Brewers took down the Reds in eleven. The Cardinals beat the Giants in nine.

Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:

1. Milwaukee: 55-39, 87.7%
2. Cincinnati: 48-44, 8.1%
3. Cubs: 46-46, 2.8%
4. St. Louis: 45-47, 1.4%
5. Pittsburgh: 36-56, 0.0%

Better than yesterday.

Corbin Burnes vs. Sonny Gray in that series finale. Johnny Cueto vs. Wade LeBlanc in St. Louis. Still rather unclear who will start for the Cardinals tomorrow and Tuesday.

Up Next:

Game 3

***

Whom:

Cubs vs. Arizona

When:

3:10 PM Chicago Time

Where:

Chase Field

Weather:

Dome

Starting Pitchers:

Zach Davies vs. Merrill Kelly

The Opponent:

Kelly’s having another solid year, his xERA at 4.53, his FIP at 4.05, 109 innings already amassed to post a 1.7 fWAR entering today. A solid arm. Club option next year, I believe, if you’re curious.

The Numbers:

Cubs are a -115 favorite. Diamondbacks at +105, so about a 52% chance of a win for the good guys. Over/under’s at nine and favors the over.

Cubs News:

Rowan Wick is heading out on a rehab assignment, so the 60-day IL could soon shrink by two (with Matt Duffy also on a rehab assignment).

Cubs Thoughts:

Would a sweep bring the Cubs back to life? No. But it has a better chance of doing that than a loss does. If you’re really wondering, the Brewers have two days off this week and play the Royals twice in the middle, then host the White Sox for three this weekend. It would appear they’re lined up to throw Houser, Woodruff, and Burnes against the Sox.

The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. Was asked to do NIT Bracketology in 2018 and never looked back. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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