All offseason, we heard about Penn State turning a corner. The corner is here.
All September, we’ve heard about Kalen DeBoer’s funeral march in Tuscaloosa. There’s a get out of jail card on the table in Athens.
LSU was labeled a championship contender when they beat Clemson on the road. Clemson’s 1–3. Were both Tigers paper, or just the orange ones?
We’ve got those games, Lane Kiffin’s media blitz, USC’s Big Ten tiff, Idaho in Missoula, Florida State on a Friday night, and trying to figure out which Big 12 games matter. Let’s get to it.
On the Big 12 note: Apologies for drawing the line where we drew it this week on which games to talk about. We’re going to try to at least have numbers on more games next week, and we might start splitting these into multiple previews until conference races clear up. Relatedly: We still don’t have any conference tiebreakers in our model, but we should have straightforward head-to-head in there next week. Betting lines come from Thursday afternoon.
Oregon at Penn State
Saturday, 7:30 PM EDT
NBC
Playoff probabilities:
- Oregon: 84% entering week, 94% with a win, 68% with a loss
- Penn State: 49% entering week, 73% with a win, 34% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Penn State by 3.5
- Movelor: Oregon by 3.9
- FPI: Penn State by 0.2
- SP+: Oregon by 0.4
There are two ways to think about Penn State’s big-game struggles under James Franklin. The first is that Franklin’s Penn State hasn’t shown up in big games. The second is that Franklin’s Penn State has often been good and never been great.
Are the Nittany Lions great this year? The narrative would suggest it. But it’s hard to find the basis for that narrative. Tyler Warren and Abdul Carter were two of the best football players in the country last year. Penn State might be better at most positions, but their overall talent level doesn’t appear different, and while they’ve been fine so far, they haven’t impressed like Oregon in the early going.
Still, it’s a white out, and thanks to NBC plucking this game before FOX could get to it, it’s a white out at night. Happy Valley is going to be loud. Dante Moore’s playing his first true road game. Dan Lanning might be the best regular season coach in the country, but this is a tough environment. The reasonable take seems to be that Oregon’s better, but it’s anybody’s guess if they’re better by enough.
What we’ll say on Monday:
Oregon got tested, but Oregon passed. Book those flights to Indianapolis, and get Dante Moore a hotel room in New York the next weekend. Just in case.
OR
Drew Allar finally met the moment, and Penn State quieted the doubters for now. Ohio State and Indiana remain on the schedule, but the Nittany Lions are a playoff team again, and they might really be the best team in the country.
OR
Penn State should not have let Beau Pribula walk.
Alabama at Georgia
Saturday, 7:30 PM EDT
ABC
Playoff probabilities:
- Georgia: 65% entering week, 78% with a win, 42% with a loss
- Alabama: 31% entering week, 54% with a win, 18% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Georgia by 3
- Movelor: Georgia by 4.9
- FPI: Georgia by 1.1
- SP+: Alabama by 0.7
There’s a theory—I think I heard Andy Staples say it last—that Alabama struggles to get up for the little games under Kalen DeBoer, but that they show up when the lights are bright. I’m a little skeptical of this, as it seems largely based on the Georgia game last year, a sample size of one. Yes, the Tide beat LSU and Mizzou. But how bright, really, were those lights?
More likely, Alabama’s inconsistent, and the question is whether they’re consistently inconsistent or a true random variable. The Tide absolutely have the talent to hang with Georgia. Was last year a demonstration that they also have the gameplan? Or was it just a good game and was Oklahoma a bad game and could everything break a different direction this fall?
Georgia, meanwhile, could certainly be the best team in the country. Their ceiling is there with Ohio State’s. But with so much unknown about who they’ve played, we might be looking at a juggernaut and we might be looking at a team who hardly escaped the SEC’s tenth fiddle.
What we’ll say on Monday:
Georgia looks like Georgia again, and that is terrible news for the Southeastern Conference.
OR
Alabama might give every Alabama fan a heart attack, but Ty Simpson and the gang are back in the mix. Not just for the playoff, either. There’s no reason these guys can’t win it all.
OR
I don’t know if that was great football or terrible football, but that was the most exciting thing I’ve seen since Nick Saban tried to kick a 57-yard field goal at the end of the Iron Bowl.
LSU at Mississippi
Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT
ABC
Playoff probabilities:
- Mississippi: 49% entering week, 67% with a win, 23% with a loss
- LSU: 39% entering week, 62% with a win, 23% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Mississippi by 1.5
- Movelor: Mississippi by 3.3
- FPI: Mississippi by 6.5
- SP+: Mississippi by 5.7
Remember on Monday that after one week of college football, Penn State and LSU were ranked 2nd and 3rd in the AP Poll and combined to receive 10 of a possible 66 first place votes.
LSU might be for real. Unexpectedly, the defense looks the part while the offense has sand in the gears. A tough thing about this game is that even if LSU is for real, we might not know it, because it’s still so early and Mississippi’s volatile and Mississippi’s unproven. But with a win, the Tigers will be 5–0, and their three remaining road games (Vanderbilt, Alabama, Oklahoma) are manageable enough as a trio to call them a playoff favorite. In other words: Maybe the Week 1 hype was warranted.
Over in Oxford, meanwhile, Lane Kiffin and people around him are billing this as a breakthrough moment. There’s an E:60 out about the guy. His daughter either coincidentally announced her relationship with LSU’s weak-side linebacker or made a major publicity grab in conjunction with the sympathetic ESPN mini-doc. Trinidad Chambliss is still starting under center, the defense still doesn’t look like it looked last year, and it’s still not that crazy to believe the Rebels could be the best team in the country.
What we’ll say on Monday:
Blake Baker’s made progress with LSU’s defense, but it’s got room to grow. Even with Garrett Nussmeier rediscovering his arm slot, the Tigers didn’t have enough to stay unbeaten. Now, the SEC schedule really looms.
OR
Holy Blake Baker. Whether Nussmeier figures it out or not, LSU’s defense can take them places. Now it’s a battle against distractions.
OR
Lane Kiffin, your time has once again come. Welcome back to the big stage, cowboy.
USC at Illinois
Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT
FOX
Playoff probabilities:
- USC: 22% entering week, 38% with a win, 10% with a loss
- Illinois: 12% entering week, 21% with a win, 2% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: USC by 6.5
- Movelor: Illinois by 2.0
- FPI: USC by 6.3
- SP+: USC by 7.6
If you missed it, the Big Ten’s broadcast partner—Fox Sports—had USC kick off at 8:00 PM Pacific Time last Saturday before kicking off at 9:00 AM Pacific Time this week, partly because Fox Sports made a decision a few years ago to stop trying to compete with ESPN for primetime Saturday viewership. USC understandably isn’t thrilled with the situation, though descriptions of Lincoln Riley’s comments as whining are a little overblown. Has USC whined about having to play a Big Ten schedule after choosing to join the Big Ten? Yes. But this week’s comments were innocuous, and it is a little odd that Fox Sports is throwing dodgeballs at one of its premier brands.
USC has to deal with getting players ready in the morning, and Illinois has to deal with getting players ready after a demoralizing trip to Bloomington last week. We thought this was going to be offense vs. defense, but Illinois hasn’t held up the defense end of that bargain. We think USC might be a force to be reckoned with, but they’ve struggled to put away Purdue and Michigan State, and there are a lot of trap game elements to this trip.
Illinois’s season isn’t exactly over. The Xavier Scott injury is brutal, but the year is long, and at least at the moment, Illinois looks like they could be better than all their road opponents, which makes every ballgame winnable. Bret Bielema probably isn’t as good a coach as Illinois fans hoped, just as he probably isn’t as bad a coach as Arkansas fans hoped. But he’s good enough to win this game, and if he does, everything’s back in the Illini’s hands.
What we’ll say on Monday:
Lincoln Riley has a quarterback and is taking care of business on the road. Feels a little like 2018 again.
OR
Whether it was the early kick or another cause, USC wasn’t up for the challenge of Illinois. That doesn’t mean they’re doomed, but it’s hard to see this as the year Riley finally breaks though in California. Riley’s been in California a long time.
OR
If Indiana beat Illinois by 53 and Illinois just did that to USC…does that say something about Indiana or about USC?
Indiana at Iowa
Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT
Peacock
Playoff probabilities:
- Indiana: 71% entering week, 82% with a win, 40% with a loss
- Iowa: 4% entering week, 11% with a win, 1% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Indiana by 8
- Movelor: Indiana by 9.2
- FPI: Indiana by 8.6
- SP+: Indiana by 9.2
Indiana’s made its take–no–prisoners philosophy known. Is Iowa’s defense ready for the attack?
This is a test for Indiana not in that we wouldn’t be surprised if they lost, but in that it’ll show where they fall on the spectrum between dominant and merely good. It’s college football. Blowouts happen. Routine blowouts don’t. Maybe Illinois has deep problems. Maybe Illinois is who we thought they were and Indiana’s just good enough at this moment to compete with the country’s best. That wouldn’t mean they’ll hold up over a full season, with more accomplished programs tending to peak later and later. But it would mean a lot.
For Iowa, meanwhile, this is opportunity. The Hawkeyes played Iowa State to the wire and managed to get past Rutgers on the road. The offense finally figured some things out against UMass and the Scarlet Knights, and Kinnick Stadium should be rocking for the afternoon kick. Unfortunately for Iowa, this defense isn’t what it was back in 2023, but this wouldn’t be the first time Kirk Ferentz’s program caused some big trouble in the Big Ten. It’s a free-play upset opportunity for the Hawks at home. That part’s normal. It’s just the opponent who’s unusual.
What we’ll say on Monday:
Indiana turned on the afterburners again, and while Fernando Mendoza still might not win the Heisman (it’s still hard to believe these guys will beat Oregon or Penn State), nobody’s going to catch his numbers.
OR
It wasn’t easy for Indiana, but that can be spun as a positive. Iowa isn’t outstanding, but it’s hard to beat decent teams on the road, and the Hawkeyes fit that description.
OR
The harder they fall, eh? What a win for Iowa, who’s suddenly a playoff player.
Auburn at Texas A&M
Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT
ESPN
Playoff probabilities:
- Texas A&M: 15% entering week, 22% with a win, 3% with a loss
- Auburn: 4% entering week, 10% with a win, 1% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Texas A&M by 6.5
- Movelor: Texas A&M by 5.1
- FPI: Texas A&M by 4.7
- SP+: Texas A&M by 5.0
We’ve talked a lot about our exhaustion with the AP Poll, but we can’t really help it. It’s exhausting. Texas A&M won a big road game over Notre Dame. They deserve credit for that. Calling them one of the ten best teams in the country? Too much credit. It’s not that they definitively aren’t a top-ten team. It’s that there’s no indication yet that they are. Against an Auburn team who passes for mediocre by SEC standards, it’s hard to find anyone seriously favoring the Aggies by more than a touchdown.
There are a few ways this can go, then. Maybe Texas A&M does blow out Auburn, patching up some of the defensive issues while showing their offense can do more than beat a malfunctioning defense like Notre Dame’s. Maybe Auburn pulls off the upset, setting up two weeks of Auburn hype before the Georgia game on the Plains. Most likely, A&M wins in non-dominant fashion, and nobody really notices, and the Aggies keep marching along as a relative unknown, a frustrating one given they’ll have played two games which should be important data points.
It’s worth remembering that Auburn came very close to beating Oklahoma. Not because Auburn’s a playoff threat, but because they’re the kind of team who makes the SEC such a headache for teams like Texas A&M. If Texas A&M played in the Big Ten, we could call them a playoff team. The Big Ten’s eleventh-best team is Minnesota. But the SEC’s eleventh-best team is Auburn, who has the potential to rip out A&M’s entrails if Marcel Reed so much as tweaks his ankle. The SEC is deep.
What we’ll say on Monday:
The SEC is deep. Au revoir, A&M.
OR
We still don’t know what to make of Texas A&M’s defense, since Auburn isn’t exactly Joe Burrow’s LSU out there. We still have questions about Marcel Reed’s durability and how he’ll navigate fatigue. But A&M looked the part, and there’s no reason they can’t keep looking the part through October.
OR
We still don’t really know much about A&M, but 5–0 isn’t nothing. They’re in the mix.
Ohio State at Washington
Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT
CBS
Playoff probabilities:
- Ohio State: 91% entering week, 95% with a win, 71% with a loss
- Washington: 17% entering week, 42% with a win, 12% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Ohio State by 8
- Movelor: Ohio State by 14.1
- FPI: Ohio State by 4.8
- SP+: Ohio State by 10.2
Rating systems are a little split on Washington, but they’re more split on how far ahead of the pack they place the best teams in the country, a list which uniformly includes Ohio State. Some of the spread variance does come from a potential Husky resurgence, but a lot comes from the Buckeyes, who blow out so many of their opponents that it’s hard to pin down exactly how good they are against a competitive foe.
What’s the story on Washington? It’s year two for Jedd Fisch, who got a good thing going at Arizona before Seattle came calling. Year one went poorly, but if you squint, Washington was 5–0 at Husky Stadium. John Mateer upset them at Lumen Field, and the other five regular season losses came on the road in conference play. Was Washington secretly good? No. We also didn’t get a useful sample on Midwestern teams flying across the country, since two of the home games were USC and UCLA. But that’s an angle, and so is Fisch’s reputation as a good quarterback coach, something that’s relevant with true sophomore Demond Williams Jr. averaging 11.4 yards per pass attempt so far.
Ohio State, though, is Ohio State, and Matt Patricia—who did not overlap with Fisch in New England—is coaching the best or second-best defense in the country. This is a different level of football for Williams and the Huskies. There’s also work cut out for former Purdue head coach Ryan Walters, Washington’s defensive coordinator. Across two meetings, Walters’s defense failed to hold Ohio State under 40 points or 400 yards both times.
What we’ll say on Monday:
Maybe Washington got too much love, but it’s likelier people were underrating Ohio State. Ironically, Arch Manning’s poor play in that opener kept OSU out of the spotlight. That and the noon kickoff, of course.
OR
Credit to Washington, but Ohio State is the best team in the country.
OR
Holy heck. Demond Williams Jr., everybody. For your Heisman consideration.
Florida State at Virginia
Friday, 7:00 PM EDT
ESPN
Playoff probabilities:
- Florida State: 10% entering week, 20% with a win, 3% with a loss
- Virginia: 8% entering week, 12% with a win, 1% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Florida State by 7
- Movelor: Virginia by 3.5
- FPI: Florida State by 2.5
- SP+: Florida State by 2.9
No, Virginia shouldn’t be favored here. We need to make Movelor capable of catching up to the one FSU-ish team each year. But, Virginia’s better than one might assume. Movelor has them above SMU, Duke, Pitt, NC State, and Boston College, plus the really terrible ACC programs. Yes, they lost to NC State in Raleigh. They also outgained the Wolfpack by about a hundred yards.
Tonight is not the night we get a final answer on Florida State’s capability. We’ll get that when they play Miami, and most likely, we’re going to learn that they’re among the best 25 and not the best 10. But we’re going to learn more about FSU—specifically, we’ll probably learn how much better they are than Virginia. Since that Alabama game, FSU has fed healthily on cupcakes. That’s not a criticism, but it’s part of why we’re still so unsure about Mike Norvell’s bounceback team.
One parallel here: Tommy Castellanos, like Marcel Reed, does a lot and is a little small. That leads to a lot of hits. He’s had some injuries before. We don’t want this to happen—we love watching Tommy Castellanos play football—but we are concerned about what goes down if Castellanos goes down. We’re also concerned that FSU’s own concern about this could lead to some overprotection of Castellanos, the kind of overprotection which hamstrings the Seminole offense.
What we’ll say on Monday:
Well, so much for Florida State. Tommy Castellanos ran a little, but it was the other small ballcarrier—J’Mari Taylor—running a whole lot. Great moment for UVA football fans.
OR
We’re pretty sure now that Florida State is better than the ACC pack. The question is whether they’re close enough to Miami to do big things, or if a first round playoff exit is the more reasonable hope.
OR
Florida State is good. But there are flaws and vulnerabilities. Take Miami next week.
TCU at Arizona State
Friday, 9:00 PM EDT
FOX
Playoff probabilities:
- TCU: 21% entering week, 38% with a win, 10% with a loss
- Arizona State: 15% entering week, 23% with a win, 4% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Arizona State by 3
- Movelor: Arizona State by 3.0
- FPI: TCU by 0.2
- SP+: TCU by 1.3
It’s a good Friday night.
If ASU proved anything last year, it was the power of one large running back with a silly-sounding name. Cam Skattebo broke tackles, and he also broke hearts.
If ASU proved a second thing, though, it’s that it’s hard to be out of the picture if you’re a competitive team in the Big 12. ASU went from almost losing to Texas State in San Marcos to almost toppling Texas in the Cotton Bowl. It is hard to eliminate competitive Big 12 teams from the picture.
TCU’s a lot of fun. We got a taste of them against UNC and Josh Hoover’s kept it up since, shredding SMU last week in a rivalry game. Much like ASU, TCU has come out of nowhere in the Big 12 before. Fun game ahead. No idea what will happen.
What we’ll say on Monday:
Not so fast, Texas Tech. TCU is the new Big 12 favorite.
OR
Arizona State’s down, but they’re not out. Reminder: Their loss was a nonconference loss.
OR
Yes, the Big 12 needs better officiating. But don’t we all?
Arizona at Iowa State
Saturday, 7:00 PM EDT
ESPN
Playoff probabilities:
- Iowa State: 22% entering week, 28% with a win, 5% with a loss
- Arizona: 4% entering week, 12% with a win, 2% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Iowa State by 6
- Movelor: Iowa State by 10.3
- FPI: Iowa State by 2.9
- SP+: Iowa State by 8.3
This is getting into “gratuituous Iowa State talk” territory, so my apologies, but: Big game! The winner’s going to be an early Big 12 contender. The loser’s going to have some wounds to lick.
The last time we saw Iowa State, they were very nearly losing on the road against Arkansas State. At the time, it looked forgivable. Kyle Konrardy (the kicker) was hurt, the Cyclones were coming off Ireland and Cy–Hawk, and it was well over one hundred degrees on the field turf in Jonesboro. Since then, Arkansas State lost to Kennesaw State, which probably isn’t good? It’s not necessarily all that bad, but it probably isn’t good. So…red flag performance by the Cyclones.
The last time we saw Arizona, it was two weeks ago tonight and they were twisting the knife in K-State’s season. They’re still an unknown, but Noah Fifita remains under center, so there’s experience. If there’s any truth to the Jeremiah Cooper ACL rumors, it could be a test for Iowa State’s defense. If that Arkansas State performance was indicative of what’s to come, Arizona’s going to have a 4–0 record with a decent path ahead of them.
What we’ll say on Monday:
It wasn’t pretty, but Roccho Becht did it again, and Iowa State stays upright.
OR
Whatever happened in Arkansas is out of the Cyclone system. The offense hummed. The defense suffocated. Back to square one for Brent Brennan, and back to the thick of the Big 12 race for ISU.
OR
The Kansas State win felt a little like a landmark for Brennan’s program. This was bigger.
Idaho at Montana
Saturday, 10:15 PM EDT
ESPN2
Playoff probabilities:
- Montana: 86% entering week, 94% with a win, 72% with a loss
- Idaho: 49% entering week, 73% with a win, 37% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: (Nothing until Saturday, most likely)
- Movelor: Montana by 5.9
- SP+: Montana by 13.1
Between this and potential Big 12 favorite BYU playing in Boulder, we’ve got a great late-night slate on Saturday as well as Friday.
Jason Eck’s gone from Idaho, but the Vandals look about as expected so far. They played two FBS programs within a field goal. They escaped St. Thomas in the Fighting Taters game and stifled Utah Tech the next week. This isn’t a must-win game for them—they don’t play Montana State, and they get UC Davis at home—but it’d be a big one if they could pull off the upset on the road. Joshua Wood’s a fun dual-threat guy.
For Montana, there’s hope once again about a Bobby Hauck return to greatness. The guy’s made four national championship games now out of Missoula. He’s gotten there. The athletic department and the school have the resources to compete in this current iteration of the FCS. A full breakthrough is unlikely, but why not have that hope? Keali’I Ah Yat brings a storied last name back to Washington-Grizzly Stadium. He’s also brought a chaos factor so far that can break both ways.
What we’ll say on Monday:
That stadium is just so special under the lights.
AND
Idaho avoids a tough 2–3 mark and becomes the arguable Big Sky favorite, all in one swing of the Wood. What a ballgame.
OR
Are the Griz…back?
**
If you enjoy these posts and want to receive them more directly, we have two options for you. The first is to subscribe to our Substack, where we currently exclusively publish college football blog posts a few days a week. The second is to subscribe to our daily-ish newsletter, a rundown of everything going on at The Barking Crow.
**
