Pedro Strop had another tough outing last night, allowing three runs in the eighth inning after entering with a two-run lead. It was only the latest such performance from the normally reliable pitcher, who in six outings since the All-Star Break has allowed seven earned runs.
Last night’s shouldn’t have been that bad, statistically speaking. The Pablo Sandoval double that started the inning wasn’t hit hard so much as it was hit in the worst place possible (the best place possible from Sandoval’s standpoint). Only seven percent of balls hit with that exit velocity and that launch angle are expected to be hits, let alone extra-base hits. The Brandon Crawford single that drove in Sandoval also was more likely to be an out than a hit judging by contact quality alone, but it found a hole and brought the go-ahead run to the plate.
From there, things got deservedly bad, and Strop did what’s become all too familiar to Cubs fans this year: he gave up some rockets.
In 2018, Strop ranked in the MLB’s best eight percent in lowest average exit velocity, at 85.2 mph. This year, he has yet to pitch enough to qualify for such rankings, but if he did, his 90.7 marker in the metric would rank near the league’s worst eight percent. His fastball velocity is down about an mph and a half from what it’s been the last few years, stemming from his multiple hamstring injuries, age, or both. And while this in itself might not be the issue, or at least not the only issue, it certainly isn’t helping matters.
It’s all a sad development for the pitcher who, since arriving in Chicago in the Jake Arrieta trade, has produced ERA’s below 3.00 in each of his five full seasons. And it’s disappointing for the Cubs, who are three games below where their Pythagorean Win-Loss suggests they should be based on run differential alone, a trend not helped by the bullpen’s 19th-place rating in Win Probability Added.
So what should the Cubs do with Strop?
A reduction in role is the obvious answer, and that might be useful in helping him figure out what to do with his new capabilities. His arsenal is robust enough that changing his approach is a viable option, and he’s shown signs of doing that, increasing his slider usage to a three-year high at 39.1%. But if Strop can’t lock down the eighth inning, the Cubs may feel the need to use Steve Cishek even more than they already do, which is hard to fathom. Kyle Ryan is having a standout season, but as the only lefty in the Cubs’ bullpen when Randy Rosario is in Des Moines, he’s more optimally suited for situational spots against left-handed hitters. Beyond that, Brandon Kintzler is the only non-Kimbrel reliever whose 2019 numbers have him fully deserving of trust, demonstrating the need for Brad Brach to get the results his FIP indicates he should be getting, Rowan Wick to get a chance to keep up his good performance over a larger sample, or help to be acquired via trade in these next eight days. Even if Brandon Morrow returns healthy and effective, his usage figures to be so sparing that he can’t figure in as part of a traditional bullpen.
In other words, while the Cubs might not necessarily “need” Strop to be effective, it would sure be helpful if he was, because the bigger and stronger the bridge to Kimbrel, the more secure every lead will both feel and be. It’s hard to know what the answer is, or whether there is an answer, but the task is evident for Strop and Tommy Hottovy. Here’s hoping they can figure it out.
