Out With a Whimper? It’s Home Finale Day for the Cubs

The Cubs are gonna finish the home slate getting swept by the Cardinals, aren’t they.

The good parts from yesterday:

  • Ian Happ was crushing the ball.
  • Willson Contreras was crushing the ball.
  • Matt Duffy had a good day.
  • David Bote tripled, and his xwOBA’s up to a replacement-level-ish .309 (might be a bit better than replacement-level, but mostly putting this in there because his season has been so extraordinarily unlucky).
  • Scott Effross was effective again out of the ‘pen. 2.48 xERA, 3.00 FIP, only 12.1 innings.

***

The Diaspora:

Good outing for Andrew Chafin yesterday as his season winds down in Oakland. Jorge Soler hit his 25th home run, and added a double and single.

Around the Division:

The Brewers won, putting their magic number at one to clinch the division title. The Cardinals’ magic number in the Wild Card race is three, with the Reds’ elimination number two (the Phillies are the other team the Cards will have to stave off, or theoretically Atlanta).

Wade Miley’s done for the year for the Reds, in all likelihood. Neck strain.

Up Next:

The home finale.

***

Whom:

Cubs vs. St. Louis

When:

1:20 PM Chicago Time

Where:

Wrigley Field

Weather:

A gorgeous day. Temperatures in the 70’s, wind blowing out (and fairly hard), just a fun day for baseball at Wrigley. Hopefully a tiding of better things to come.

Starting Pitchers:

Keegan Thompson vs. Jake Woodford

The Opponent:

Woodford’s been fine for the Cardinals. 4.60 xERA. 4.70 FIP. Had a good one his last time out, shutting Milwaukee down for five innings.

The Numbers:

The Cubs are a +145 underdog with the Cardinals at -155 for an implied win probability around 37%. The over/under’s at 10½ and leans towards the over.

Cubs News:

There’s been some organizational talk but not a lot of organizational action. GM candidates are going through the process. David Ross is probably going to get an extension. The Cubs have said they’ll sign free agents. All obvious stuff.

Cubs Thoughts:

The best way for this to go would be to win behind a solid effort from Thompson, some good outings from young folks in the bullpen, and big hitting from next year’s guys. Let’s hope for that.

The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. Was asked to do NIT Bracketology in 2018 and never looked back. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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