Our updated bracketology, heading into today, has Alabama back ahead of Illinois for the final 1-seed. We wrote about this before Illinois beat Ohio State. We’ve also written about our model’s shortcomings, and how much we trust it.
That said, there should be some level of “Alabama is closer to Illinois than people think” as a takeaway from this. Our model isn’t perfect. It doesn’t catch some things. But it does see some overall truths. And while Alabama may be back below Illinois tomorrow as the ripples from other games work their way through our model and statistical noise from Monte Carlo simulations’ inherent randomness does its thing, Illinois isn’t guaranteed that fourth 1-seed.
The same situation’s going on down on the bubble, where Michigan State passed Drake despite neither playing in the last two days. The message there? Our model thinks Sparty and the Bulldogs are hair-splittingly close.
Here are the other movements today:
Moving In: Michigan State, Oral Roberts (auto-bid), Mount St. Mary’s (auto-bid)
Congratulations to Tulsa’s only Summit League team. Congratulations to Mount St. Mary’s, which is in…Maryland? KenPom and the betting market must be rather aligned on those guys, because I know little about them.
Moving Out: Drake, North Dakota State (auto-bid), Bryant (auto-bid)
Bryant was set to be a lot of fun. Back in November, the Bulldogs took Syracuse to the wire. They played a breakneck pace of basketball. There was reason to believe they might give a 2-seed or a 3-seed a terrible time next week.
But they fell last night.
Alas.
***
Conference Tournament probabilities for those in action today. Already out of date for the Big Sky and the ACC, and as always, these don’t account for coronavirus possibilities and injuries and all that (see: Kansas, Villanova).
ACC
Virginia: 27.3%
Florida State: 24.4%
Georgia Tech: 13.3%
North Carolina: 7.8%
Clemson: 7.1%
Virginia Tech: 6.9%
Duke: 4.8%
Syracuse: 2.9%
Louisville: 2.2%
North Carolina State: 1.7%
Notre Dame: 1.6%
Miami: 0.1%
No big changes here.
Big 12
Baylor: 60.4%
Kansas: 9.6%
Texas Tech: 9.1%
Texas: 6.8%
West Virginia: 6.4%
Oklahoma State: 4.2%
Oklahoma: 3.5%
TCU: 0.1%
Iowa State: 0.01%
Kansas State: 0.00%
Iowa State may have been swept by K-State. At least the Cyclones still win the Big 12 in one of 10,000 simulations, though. Infinite times more than the Wildcats. And based on how today’s expected to go, that won’t change tomorrow and will therefore be something we can hold onto forever.
Big East
Villanova: 33.3%
Creighton: 24.2%
UConn: 22.0%
Seton Hall: 7.2%
St. John’s: 5.4%
Xavier: 2.9%
Providence: 2.1%
Marquette: 1.9%
Georgetown: 0.7%
Butler: 0.3%
DePaul: 0.1%
Villanova’s better than the rest of the Big East. But better enough to still be favored despite the injuries to Collin Gillespie and Justin Moore? It’s unclear. Probably safest to call this a three-way tossup between them, Creighton, and James Bouknight’s attempt at the Kemba Walker impression.
Big Sky
Eastern Washington: 32.7%
Southern Utah: 26.0%
Weber State: 23.7%
Montana State: 5.3%
Montana: 5.3%
Idaho State: 2.6%
Northern Colorado: 1.7%
Portland State: 1.5%
Sacramento State: 1.3%
As was said, already outdated with Northern Colorado beating Sacramento State in a game that tipped off at 8:00 AM on Sac State’s body clock.
Big Ten
Michigan: 31.4%
Illinois: 24.4%
Iowa: 22.2%
Ohio State: 7.6%
Purdue: 6.9%
Wisconsin: 3.6%
Maryland: 1.3%
Rutgers: 1.0%
Indiana: 0.6%
Penn State: 0.5%
Michigan State: 0.3%
Minnesota: 0.1%
Northwestern: 0.1%
Nebraska: 0.0%
The odds on this one are comical, shaken up by Michigan State the same way Duke’s twisted the ACC market. They’ve got MSU right behind Wisconsin. If the futures vig wasn’t so large, you could short MSU to oblivion. What a year in that regard.
Conference USA
Louisiana Tech: 24.1%
North Texas: 22.1%
Western Kentucky: 17.3%
UAB: 14.5%
Marshall: 13.3%
Old Dominion: 3.2%
UTEP: 2.9%
UTSA: 1.7%
Florida Atlantic: 0.5%
Rice: 0.3%
Charlotte: 0.2%
Middle Tennessee State: 0.02%
How MTSU has fallen…
MAAC
Siena: 22.2%
Monmouth: 21.6%
St. Peter’s: 18.8%
Iona: 17.7%
Niagara: 8.7%
Marist: 6.3%
Rider: 2.6%
Fairfield: 2.0%
Talk about an open race.
Mountain West
San Diego State: 47.6%
Utah State: 21.4%
Colorado State: 16.6%
Boise State: 10.8%
Nevada: 3.0%
UNLC: 0.4%
Fresno State: 0.2%
Wyoming: 0.1%
New Mexico: 0.00%
San José State: 0.00%
Air Force: 0.00%
Utah State is kind of in bid thief territory, but if they win the league they’ll have bumped out an at-large team anyway. Keep an eye on the Aggies if you’re watching the bubble.
Pac-12
Colorado: 29.9%
USC: 28.7%
Oregon: 19.8%
UCLA: 14.2%
Utah: 2.4%
Stanford: 2.1%
Oregon State: 1.8%
Washington State: 0.7%
Arizona State: 0.4%
Washington: 0.03%
California: 0.00%
The bettors seem to like Oregon. Who knows.
Patriot League
Colgate: 79.4%
Army: 13.8%
Loyola (Maryland): 4.6%
Bucknell: 2.2%
Colgate’s to lose.
SEC
Alabama: 29.7%
Arkansas: 21.9%
Tennessee: 15.6%
LSU: 14.2%
Florida: 6.7%
Mississippi: 3.8%
Missouri: 3.4%
Kentucky: 2.7%
Mississippi State: 1.1%
Georgia: 0.4%
Vanderbilt: 0.3%
South Carolina: 0.2%
Texas A&M: 0.00%
Will Buzz Williams figure it out at A&M?
Southland
Abilene Christian: 60.4%
Nicholls State: 21.9%
Sam Houston State: 14.6%
New Orleans: 1.5%
Northwestern State: 1.1%
Lamar: 0.3%
Southeastern Louisiana: 0.3%
Houston Baptist: 0.01%
Another tournament where low NCAA Tournament seeds could get a bump from the favorite falling.
SWAC
Prairie View A&M: 38.4%
Texas Southern: 23.5%
Jackson State: 20.2%
Southern: 9.4%
Grambling: 5.4%
Alcorn State: 2.5%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 0.6%
Mississippi Valley State: 0.00%
Exciting trio here.
