We’ve gotten away from it in recent years, but it wasn’t uncommon in the BCS era for the path to a national championship to include one deflating regular season loss. In 2003, USC and LSU lost to Cal and to Florida. In 2008, Tim Tebow gave his memorable statement after losing to Mississippi. In 2012, Alabama rallied after losing to Johnny Manziel in November. Even with the end of the BCS, the trend persisted. Each of the first four College Football Playoff champions recovered from a disappointing regular season loss, whether it was Ohio State’s shocking Week 2 defeat to Virginia Tech or Alabama falling in the 2017 Iron Bowl.
This is on the mind this week as the game we’ve agreed is Saturday’s most important features two one-loss teams. There’s Oregon, who just twelve days ago fell in heartbreaking fashion in Seattle, putting their national championship dreams on the edge. There’s Utah, who is here even after the Cam Rising handwringing, possibly two upsets away from a playoff berth after going belly-up against Oregon State four Fridays back. It’s not the championship-caliber clash we saw last weekend in Columbus. It’s not even the Red River Ramble, from three weeks ago. But it headlines a week in which the playoff contenders are buckling up, and those who don’t must watch their faint playoff hopes blow far away on the heavy autumn wind.
The Good Ones
Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT: Oregon @ Utah (FOX)
I’m not sure the narrative knows what to make of this Utah team. I’m not sure I know what to make of them either. Before the season, they were somewhere in the middle of the five expected Pac-12 contenders. Then, their offense was terrible. They kept winning, but they were winning ugly, and it started to dawn that their first-string quarterback (a good quarterback, but not a Heisman contender) was not going to make the entire difference even if he did return. When it further dawned that he wasn’t returning as soon as initial indications held, things briefly looked bleak in Salt Lake City. That was when the Oregon State loss happened.
The thing about Utah, though—and this is especially true after the offense did show up on Saturday night, albeit against a bad USC defense—is that if you take their results at face value, they’ve been a solid team. If you take their results at face value (this is the approach of Movelor, our model’s rating system), Utah has been about as good as Texas. Oregon is better, and Utah has its work cut out for it, but playing at home against another defensively questionable team, it’s far from unfathomable that the Utes could break through again. Do that, and against a whole lot of odds, they’ll be thinking playoff.
Oregon, of course, is already thinking playoff. They’ve been thinking playoff all year, and they’ve had us thinking it for a while now ourselves. It’s still unlikely that the Ducks are of national championship quality—their top rating between Movelor, SP+, and FPI is only 5th, and SP+ (the system in question here) still has them a touchdown worse than Michigan—but they are playing for the Pac-12 title, and considering location, this could be their biggest test left. As we’ve said a few times recently: Don’t rule out Bo Nix for the Heisman. There isn’t a clear favorite after what Michael Penix Jr. did against Arizona State. Voters may be looking for a good-enough quarterback on a playoff team when all is said and done.
Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT: Duke @ Louisville (ESPN)
We’ve spent a lot of space now on two 6–1 teams, and Duke and Louisville would be completely justified in saying, “What about us?” Neither is as good as Utah, but they’re solid teams, and the winner of this game could be a favorite in every individual matchup the rest of the regular season. If you win the ACC at 12–1 as Louisville, you’re probably making the playoff, and an 11–2 Duke team who avenged one loss and lost the other to Notre Dame in the final minute is plausible in some universe. So, for the winner here, the script becomes something like: Take care of business, get enough help, and then upset Florida State. That’s a really unlikely thing to pull off, but it’s possible enough to talk about.
We’ve yet to see definitively if Riley Leonard will play, and Louisville running back Jawhar Jordan is also reportedly questionable.
Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT: Oklahoma @ Kansas (FOX)
Speaking of injuries, Jalon Daniels sounds to still be hurt for KU. We wish it wasn’t so, but our wishes only go so far. This is some statistical malpractice, because we aren’t accounting for opponent, but over the last two seasons Kansas is 8–4 when Daniels plays and 3–5 when he doesn’t. Again, not the full story—the numbers are 5–4 and 2–5 against Power Five competition, which gets closer—but the conventional wisdom that Daniels is a special player is probably accurate. Jason Bean isn’t bad, but he’s no Jalon Daniels.
If Daniels doesn’t go against Oklahoma, this gets a little less interesting. Still, a 5–2 team is hosting undefeated Oklahoma for Big Noon Kickoff. That’s a recipe for chaos, and we’d put little past Lance Leipold when it comes to outperforming expectations. The Sooners might have a loss to give, but that doesn’t mean they want to use it.
Saturday, 10:30 PM EDT: Oregon State @ Arizona (ESPN)
We’re at the point in this Pac-12 season where electric games in the late-night slot are the expectation, and I don’t want to oversell the probability of one here. It’s hard not to, though, with a still–playoff–frisky Oregon State visiting an Arizona team that’s been a pain in the ass and a half for a month now. The Wildcats’ last three games have involved playing Washington within a touchdown, taking USC to three overtimes, and beating the pants off of Washington State. Now, after a week off, they get the Beavers at home. If the Beavs win, Oregon State remains in the national hunt. If it’s the Cats, we’ll start looking at Arizona’s Pac-12 title scenarios ahead of remaining home games against UCLA and Utah.
The Important Ones
Other playoff contenders, of varied tier, plus the remaining undefeated teams in action:
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT: Florida State @ Wake Forest (ABC)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT: Indiana @ Penn State (CBS)
- Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT: Florida vs. Georgia (CBS)
- Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT: BYU @ Texas (ABC)
- Saturday, 7:00 PM EDT: Washington @ Stanford (FS1)
- Saturday, 7:00 PM EDT: Air Force @ Colorado State (CBSSN)
- Saturday, 7:30 PM EDT: Ohio State @ Wisconsin (NBC)
- Saturday, 7:30 PM EDT: Vanderbilt @ Mississippi (SECN)
- Saturday, 8:00 PM EDT: Old Dominion @ James Madison (ESPNU)
There isn’t huge risk here, but there’s a lot of small risk, and that adds up. Florida State is in the hangover spot. Georgia is without Brock Bowers playing a Florida team that should be mediocre but might have a high ceiling and might be getting better. Ohio State has to play a night game at Camp Randall, and while they had it circled on their schedule in August, they probably didn’t have it highlighted and starred and marked with noisemakers the way they did the Penn State game. Penn State, Texas, Washington, and Mississippi are all in safer terrain but with plenty to prove. Air Force and James Madison are just looking to stay unbeaten.
The Interesting Ones
Others of intrigue, beginning with tonight’s:
- Thursday, 7:30 PM EDT: Georgia State @ Georgia Southern (ESPN2)
- Thursday, 7:30 PM EDT: Syracuse @ Virginia Tech (ESPN)
Did you know Virginia Tech only has one ACC loss? I did, and I still went back and checked just now because I thought I must be wrong. Even better for the Hokies, that one loss was to Florida State. Virginia Tech is equal parts trying to avoid bowl ineligibility and trying to make the ACC Championship. These guys went 1–3 in nonconference play, but they’ve won the ones that count the more.
In the headliner, the Sun Belt East is up for grabs behind James Madison, who’s still in their FBS transition. Georgia State and Georgia Southern each have only one conference loss, and State’s came to a team in the West while Southern’s came to JMU, putting them in equal positions at the front of this race (Old Dominion is in the same boat). This is the kind of weeknight Fun Belt we want in our lives. Clay Helton’s still at Georgia Southern, by the way.
The Sun Belt doesn’t end in Georgia. Two other good ones, and possibly key contests:
- Saturday, 5:00 PM EDT: Louisiana @ South Alabama (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 7:00 PM EDT: Troy @ Texas State (ESPN+)
In the West, Texas State, Troy, and South Alabama are each sitting at 2–1, while Louisiana is at 1–2 right behind them. On paper (in Movelor’s rankings), Troy is the class of the division, but South Alabama is right there, coming on stronger these last three weeks after an underwhelming start to a pretty hyped-up year, as far as Sun Belt seasons go. We’re still getting used to the Sun Belt being one of the best Group of Five leagues, but a lot of that strength comes from its depth. These are some competitive football teams playing good games.
In the power conferences, title races aren’t over either, and our biggest focus on that front is the packed Pac-12:
- Saturday, 4:00 PM EDT: USC @ Cal (P12N)
- Saturday, 7:30 PM EDT: Colorado @ UCLA (ABC)
USC? Only one conference loss. UCLA? Two, but they still have the echoes of the Pac-12 South within their schedule. It’s a pride game for the Trojans, and UCLA would like to be the latest team to remind us just how weird the Colorado moment was.
Two others in the South:
- Saturday, 4:00 PM EDT: Tulane @ Rice (ESPN2)
- Saturday, 7:00 PM EDT: Tennessee @ Kentucky (ESPN)
Tulane’s trying to hold onto command of the AAC, playing a much-improved Rice on the road. Tennessee and Kentucky have a rivalry game on their hands, each entering at 5–2.
Two others in the West:
- Saturday, 5:30 PM EDT: Wyoming @ Boise State (FS2)
- Saturday, 10:30 PM EDT: UNLV @ Fresno State (FS1)
The Mountain West remains the center of the Group of Five universe, because while the Sun Belt might be better, the MWC’s got the better best teams. Even behind Air Force, Wyoming and Fresno State are pushing for that New Year’s Six bid, and UNLV remains undefeated in conference play.
One other in the MAC:
- Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT: Miami (OH) @ Ohio (CBSSN)
It’s probably the MAC East championship, and it doesn’t have the shine it could have had (both these teams lost within the last two weeks) but it could be the best MAC game of the year. Brett Gabbert’s out for the season for Miami, but how much do quarterbacks matter? Is he as important as Jalon Daniels?
The FCS
The FCS is well-represented this weekend, especially at the top. Those big two, featuring the top 2:
- Saturday, 2:00 PM EDT: South Dakota State @ South Dakota (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 4:00 PM EDT: Montana State @ Idaho (ESPN+)
South Dakota State is a large favorite, even visiting a rival whom Movelor ranks 15th in the country. If we only talked about South Dakota State when they’re facing a serious threat, we’d hardly ever talk about South Dakota State. Montana State is favored by about a touchdown by Movelor, playing Idaho at the Kibbie Dome as they try to knock the Vandals out of the Big Sky race. The FCS season ends one week earlier than the FBS one does, to make room for the playoffs. We’re approaching the home stretch.
A few others that caught our eye:
- Saturday, 1:00 PM EDT: Delaware @ Towson (MSW)
- Saturday, 1:00 PM EDT: New Hampshire @ Rhode Island (Flo)
- Saturday, 1:00 PM EDT: Holy Cross @ Fordham (ESPN+
- Saturday, 1:00 PM EDT: Northern Iowa @ Illinois State (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 2:00 PM EDT: Missouri State @ Youngstown State (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 2:30 PM EDT: Mercer @ Western Carolina (ESPN+)
There are other big ones within the FCS sphere, but if you’re looking for a manageable portion, these six are your friend (in addition to the two blockbusters above). The CAA is of questionable quality, but Delaware’s 6–1 and New Hampshire’s a few breaks away from being able to say the same. Each faces a tough one on the road. Holy Cross took it on the chin from Lafayette, but they retain paths to the Patriot League title and another captivating playoff run. All of those paths involve beating Fordham on the road. In the MVFC, we have our customary good teams with mediocre records trying to grab a playoff spot. In the SoCon, Mercer and Western Carolina play a big one on the bubble.
**
The winnowing is always happening in college football, but we’re seeing it with a lot of clarity at this point in the year. In some respects, we’re entering the opening rounds of college football’s playoff. Teams will bite the dust this weekend. Some, we’ll expect. Others might one day be remembered as the victims of romantic upsets of yore. From Statesboro to Salt Lake City, let’s have ourselves a weekend.
