Reser Stadium in Corvallis, Oregon is a different sort of football environment from, say, the Big House. It’s small—its capacity is a third the size of college football’s largest coliseums, it’s the third-smallest power conference venue. It’s relaxed—up until this season, fans could leave at halftime, continue their tailgates, and rejoin the game in the second half. It’s said to be a spectacular place to catch a game these days, with chainsaw noises roaring through the loudspeakers before third downs, and scenes of the orange sea which took in the Beavers’ beatdown of Utah certainly support this claim. But Reser Stadium is different from college football’s cathedrals, just as Oregon State is different from college football’s dynastic powers. Oregon State is no Michigan, and no Alabama, and no Ohio State or Georgia or LSU. Oregon State is no Texas, and no Notre Dame, and no USC despite their intertwined past. Oregon State is no Oregon, even, and no Washington. But as those last two leave their ancestral rival behind, pushing Oregon State forcefully into the sport’s middle class, the little guy gets one more shot at each. In the case of Washington, that shot comes at Reser Stadium this Saturday evening, the little team in the little stadium taking on the fifth-ranked local power who’d rather fly to Piscataway than continue to play the Beavs.
Details surrounding the game: Sunset in Corvallis is scheduled for 4:43 PM Pacific Time, right around the moment the game is kicking off. Oregon State is the slimmest of favorites, doubts about Washington roiling in the wake of six straight Husky victories by ten or fewer points. Michael Penix Jr.’s Heisman campaign has hit a slippery patch, the win over Oregon becoming an afterthought, the UW quarterback trailing Bo Nix in oddsmakers’ lists. Known for their physicality, Oregon State is more accurately a highly efficient offensive team, eighth in the nation in yards per play. It not longer appears so clear that Washington can make the playoff should they lose this game. Oregon State may have a playoff shot themselves, the committee’s favorable ranking opening up a possibility of the Beavers sneaking into the fourth spot in the most chaotic of scenarios, one in which OSU takes down not only Washington, but also Oregon, and then takes down Washington again in the Pac-12 title game while upsets ravage the ACC and Big 12.
Bigger than all of those considerations, though, bigger than the final Pac-12 Championship and the Heisman Trophy and DJ Uiagalelei’s pursuit of a told–you–so moment against his many doubters, is Oregon State’s chance to punch the bully in the mouth. Reser Stadium might be small. Oregon State might belong in college football mid-majordom. But Washington still has to beat them. The Beavers still get to make them earn it.
The Big One
Saturday, 7:30 PM EST: Washington @ Oregon State (ABC)
This one’s special, and I’d say that makes it the ninth game of its caliber this season. It joins the following:
- Florida State vs. LSU
- Texas @ Alabama
- Ohio State @ Notre Dame
- Texas vs. Oklahoma
- Oregon @ Washington
- Penn State @ Ohio State
- Michigan @ Penn State
- Mississippi @ Georgia
You could throw Oregon/Utah and a few others in there, but the point is: These are the games which have written this season’s story. Oregon State gets to put its name on that list.
The Good Ones
There are others of plenty of note, but these are the big boys.
Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: Louisville @ Miami (ABC)
Is Louisville good? We still don’t really know. The committee isn’t showing them much respect, and watching Louisville dodge Virginia last week, it was easy to see why. The team that shut out Duke, handled Notre Dame, and pounded Virginia Tech is also the team who played that Virginia game and lost badly to Pitt. Tyler Van Dyke, Heisman contender turned second-stringer, is back under center for the Hurricanes after Emory Williams decimated his arm converting a crucial fourth down in Miami’s near-upset of Florida State. Louisville should be the better team, but it’s a road game, and while we don’t know whether Louisville is good, that goes double for their hosts.
Saturday, 3:30 PM EST: Georgia @ Tennessee (CBS)
An early theory of this college football season was that we were returning to the pre-Playoff days, when chaos and one-loss champions were the norm. Now, we have five undefeated Power Five teams with three weeks to play, and a real possibility exists that we could get four 13–0 teams in the playoff field.
Enter Tennessee?
Probably not. The Vols’ flaws are readily apparent. But the inconsistency of their performance implies a ceiling as high as their floor is low, and off a baseline ranking between 13th and 16th in Movelor, SP+, and FPI (our three go-to rating systems), that ceiling could still be pretty high. Georgia looked spectacular last weekend. They haven’t always looked that way this year. At the very least, it’s possible they’ll get bit.
Saturday, 8:00 PM EST: Texas @ Iowa State (FOX)
I don’t want to harbor too much hope for the Cyclones (nothing against Texas, but this is a pro-Iowa State space). I especially don’t want to harbor too much hope after harboring all sorts of hope heading into a dispiriting loss to Kansas two weeks ago, one in which they at one point trailed 21–3. But Jack Trice Stadium will be loud, and it’s hard not to call to mind the Justin Blackmon game in 2011. That Iowa State team was not as good as this one.
Quinn Ewers’s poise should be a major advantage in this sort of game. But, it should have been that sort of advantage against Oklahoma, and Texas didn’t get that done. This is a good Texas team, not a great one. Good college football teams are prone to losing.
The Important Ones
Playoff chasers:
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: Michigan @ Maryland (FOX)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: Chattanooga @ Alabama (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 4:00 PM EST: Minnesota @ Ohio State (BTN)
- Saturday, 4:00 PM EST: Oregon @ Arizona State (FOX)
- Saturday, 6:30 PM EST: North Alabama @ Florida State (CW)
Don’t expect much from these five. Arizona State’s been competitive lately, but there isn’t much good happening for the Terrapins or Gophers, and teams schedule one FCS school per year for a reason.
Undefeated teams:
- Saturday, 1:00 PM EST: UMass @ Liberty (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 2:00 PM EST: Appalachian State @ James Madison (ESPN+)
Liberty should steamroll UMass, but JMU’s got a tough one against App State, who emerged from a rough two months to stomp Marshall and Georgia State in consecutive weeks. James Madison, like Texas, is good–not–great, adjusting for conference. You have to win the games.
The Other Important Ones
Conference by conference, games that impact the championship situation:
- Saturday, 3:30 PM EST: NC State @ Virginia Tech (ACCN)
- Saturday, 3:30 PM EST: North Carolina @ Clemson (ESPN)
- Saturday, 8:00 PM EST: Syracuse @ Georgia Tech (ACCN)
We believe NC State has been eliminated from ACC title contention, but Virginia Tech and UNC are alive. We outlined scenarios here (that link has all the FBS tiebreaker info). Georgia Tech could play a role.
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: Oklahoma @ BYU (ESPN)
- Saturday, 2:30 PM EST: Cincinnati @ West Virginia (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 4:00 PM EST: Oklahoma State @ Houston (ESPN2)
- Saturday, 5:00 PM EST: UCF @ Texas Tech (FS2)
- Saturday, 7:00 PM EST: Kansas State @ Kansas (FS1)
When there are eight teams still in contention, a lot of games could matter. Such is the case in the Big 12. We’ll figure out where this stands after tomorrow’s games are done.
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: Purdue @ Northwestern (BTN)
- Saturday, 3:30 PM EST: Illinois @ Iowa (FS1)
- Saturday, 7:30 PM EST: Nebraska @ Wisconsin (NBC)
Six teams remain alive in the Big Ten West, with Minnesota joining those not named Purdue in these games. Iowa could make things very straightforward and clinch with a win, but it’s close to 50% likely they don’t do that.
- Saturday, 2:30 PM EST: Utah @ Arizona (P12N)
This is a great game on paper, and it’s also one that could come to have some Pac-12 title impact depending what happens in Corvallis and Tempe. Both Utah and Arizona enter the weekend technically alive.
- Friday, 9:00 PM EST: USF @ UTSA (ESPN2)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: Tulane @ FAU (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: SMU @ Memphis (ESPN2)
Tulane, SMU, and UTSA are all unbeaten in AAC play, with Memphis also in the mix at 5–1. There’s a decent chance this title race decides the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six representative.
- Saturday, 3:30 PM EST: Louisiana @ Troy (NFLN)
- Saturday, 6:00 PM EST: Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern (ESPN+)
Troy has clinched the Sun Belt West, but they remain in the Group of Five NY6 mix. Old Dominion and Georgia Southern could each still win the East, chasing Coastal Carolina (who plays Army in a nonconference game) and App State.
- Saturday, 2:00 PM EST: Hawaii @ Wyoming (TV?)
- Saturday, 3:00 PM EST: Nevada @ Colorado State (MWN)
- Saturday, 3:30 PM EST: UNLV @ Air Force (CBSSN)
- Saturday, 7:00 PM EST: Boise State @ Utah State (CBSSN)
- Saturday, 10:30 PM EST: New Mexico @ Fresno State (FS1)
- Saturday, 10:30 PM EST: San Diego State @ San Jose State (CBSSN)
UNLV’s trip to Air Force is the big one here, with those two tied at 5–1 atop the league, but Fresno State, Boise State, San Jose State, Wyoming, and Utah State each enter the weekend still alive.
The Interesting Ones
A few more:
- Friday, 10:30 PM EST: Colorado @ Washington State (FS1)
- Saturday, 3:30 PM EST: UCLA @ USC (ABC)
The Pac-12 is a font of intrigue. The loser of Colorado and Washington State will pick up its seventh loss. Chip Kelly might be fired if UCLA loses to USC (he might be fired anyway, to be clear).
The FCS
We drew up a list of every game we think could impact the FCS playoff picture or who wins the Ivy League/MEAC/SWAC. Here they are. Tiebreaker context available at this link. All games are Saturday.
12:00 PM EST:
- Harvard @ Yale (ESPNU)
- Dartmouth @ Brown (ESPN+)
- Duquesne @ Merrimack (TV?)
- Drake @ Butler (Flo)
- Lafayette @ Lehigh (ESPN+)
- Georgetown @ Holy Cross (ESPN+)
- Western Carolina @ VMI (ESPN+
- Furman @ Wofford (ESPN+)
1:00 PM EST:
- Charleston Southern @ Gardner-Webb (ESPN+)
- UT Martin @ Samford (ESPN+)
- Monmouth @ Albany (Flo)
- Villanova @ Delaware (Flo)
- Rhode Island @ Towson (Flo)
- Richmond @ William & Mary (Flo)
- Morgan State @ Howard (ESPN+)
- Fordham @ Colgate (ESPN+)
2:00 PM EST:
- Montana State @ Montana (ESPN+)
- Delaware State @ North Carolina Central (ESPN+)
- Indiana State @ Southern Illinois (ESPN+)
- Illinois State @ North Dakota (ESPN+)
- Youngstown State @ Murray State (ESPN+)
- South Dakota @ Western Illinois (ESPN+)
- Central Arkansas @ Austin Peay (ESPN+)
3:00 PM EST:
- Missouri State @ South Dakota State (ESPN+)
- Sacramento State @ UC Davis (ESPN+)
- Incarnate Word @ Houston Christian (ESPN+)
- Alabama State @ Prairie View A&M (ESPN+)
- Alcorn State @ Jackson State (ESPN+)
5:00 PM EST:
- North Dakota State @ Northern Iowa (ESPN+)
7:00 PM EST:
- Idaho State @ Idaho (ESPN+)
- Dayton @ Davidson (Davidson All-Access)
8:00 PM EST:
- Weber State @ Cal Poly (ESPN+)
