It’s tricky, this season, to know how seriously to take the standings as we enter August tomorrow. On the one hand, the season’s hardly a week old. On another, ten percent of it’s finished. On yet another, there are still the same number of games remaining as a normal August would imply, and given the chaos we’re seeing with the Marlins, and by extension the Phillies, and now with the Cardinals and possibly the Twins and possibly the…there’s some impetus to grab a playoff spot while it’s there for the taking, rather than wait and risk an outbreak locking a team in at the bottom of the standings.
No matter which angle you take, though, the Cubs have done about all that can be asked so far. Two series victories creating a one-game lead in the division entering a weekend series at home against the division’s only expected bottom-dweller, with production from nearly the entire lineup and a starting rotation that’s been in the MLB’s top five by fWAR.
Still, there are wrinkles to iron out. One big wrinkle, in particular. The bullpen.
The expanded MLB rosters have given the Cubs the opportunity to try a lot more options out of the ‘pen. Twelve bullpen arms have taken the mound so far this year. Only three have yet to allow an earned run.
Kyle Ryan, Rowan Wick, and Jeremy Jeffress are the three as yet in the clear, over a combined…five appearances. It’s not a good situation, and while the severity surprises, the existence of a problem doesn’t. The overall approach to the bullpen seemed to be to hope Craig Kimbrel figured it out over the long offseason, and while it may yet turn out well, his first outing was nearly calamitous in Cincinnati.
Kimbrel’s had a reputation for pitching better in save situations, so the argument’s always there that when it comes to him working things out, he needs to do it at game-speed. So far, yes, that’s a fair approach—it was only one outing. Don’t be surprised to see him take the mound for a big-lead ninth inning if the opportunity’s there these next three days, but at the same time, it’s not time to start clamoring for Jeffress to close. Again, though, given the shortened season, there is more validity to the customary urgency among fans and media than normal.
The big problem, though, is that this problem is not contained to Kimbrel. It’s one thing to have closer questions. It’s another to not have reason for confidence in well over half the bullpen. Even chalking up this past week’s results to small-sample size oddity, the Cubs are projected to have the sixth-worst relief staff in the league by FanGraphs’ depth charts. José Quintana’s eventual return will provide some depth if the rest of the rotation stays healthy, either through Quintana entering the relief corps himself or through Quintana pushing Alec Mills into a different role. There’s also the possibility of acquiring an arm or four via trade later in the month, or stocking up on lottery tickets like Cody Allen.
So far, the bullpen hasn’t directly cost the Cubs a game, but it’s the rattlesnake in the room—it’s there, and if someone steps wrong, it’s going to bite. As of now, the path seems to be some combination of Kimbrel figuring it out, Wick/Ryan/Jeffress staying competent, and two or more other arms demonstrating viability through either a larger sample, Quintana’s return, or trade/signing.
For the time being, hold on tight, and hope the Cubs can grab another pair of wins in one of their few easier series this year.
