The biggest stories in baseball this Friday evening are of the sad variety, and no, we aren’t shedding tears over the Yanks. Shohei Ohtani is done pitching for the year and possibly for next year as well, having torn his UCL. Mike Trout? Out, returning to the Injured List with a broken bone in his wrist. Across the country, beset by injuries of his own, Stephen Strasburg is calling it a career at 35, having made just eight starts since that 2019 World Series run.
But, this is baseball, and hope springs eternal. Those same Nationals from whom Strasburg retired took two of three from the Yankees, each in the late innings. Mookie Betts, another Southern California-based face of the game, went seven for eight in a pair of games in Cleveland. And down in Arizona, the Diamondbacks are winning baseball games again. Let’s run through these last four days.
The Stars
The Red Sox have ridden a rockier roller coaster than most this season, but on Wednesday, the cart found a smooth stretch of track. It wasn’t the prettiest game—Boston needed six pitchers to get through it after Chris Sale allowed four runs in five innings—but Adam Duvall’s 10th-inning home run injected new life yet again into the Wild Card trailers.
On the relevant topic of hitters with UCL problems, Bryce Harper had some big moments, following up Monday’s inside-the-park home run with an outside-the-parker on Tuesday. Wednesday, it was Harper forcing extra innings, taking Camilo Doval deep in the bottom of the ninth to erase a 5–2 deficit. The Phillies went on to lose that one.
The Diamondbacks had some drama this week, with Tommy Pham getting the big hit in extras on Monday after Ketel Marte homered in the ninth to keep the ballgame going, and with Alex Thomas making a heck of a catch on Tuesday, again in the ninth inning.
The Orioles and Blue Jays didn’t disappoint in their series, with Tuesday especially dramatic as Bo Bichette made some challenges to Newton’s laws on an off-balance throw in the ninth (Brandon Belt hit the home run to win it in the tenth). The Orioles would go on to get Toronto back double over the next two days.
Yandy Díaz had a big hit on Wednesday, driving in two with a single in the ninth to tie the Rockies in a game the Rays would go on to win. Pete Fairbanks stayed electric on the mound, striking out five of the seven Colorado batters he faced over the series.
Lastly, Aaron Judge homered three times on Wednesday in the Yankees’ only victory of what’s nearly been a full two weeks. Take what you can get, I suppose.
The Series
On the AL side of the coin:
- The Orioles took two of three from the Blue Jays, pushing Toronto that little bit further down in the Wild Card picture.
- The Rays swept the Rockies, continuing to pressure Baltimore from below.
- The Astros and Red Sox split a four-game set as Houston gets used to life on the playoff bubble.
- The Rangers were swept by the Diamondbacks, flinging the door wide open for Seattle.
- Seattle got even closer to that door, taking two of three in Chicago against the White Sox, but their ninth-inning comeback on Wednesday wasn’t enough to stretch the winning streak to nine.
- Minnesota dropped a pair to the Brewers, with Wednesday’s finish getting especially funky as Max Kepler appeared to cramp up late and Ryan Jeffers faceplanted on an infield single in the 10th.
- Cleveland took its opener from the Dodgers, but it dropped the last two, the first of which was suspended Wednesday and finished yesterday.
From the NL:
- The Dodgers took two of three in Cleveland, keeping pace with the top of the league.
- Atlanta took two of three from the Mets, pouring cold water on any comeback hopes in Queens.
- The Phillies took two of three from the Giants, igniting concerns about Doval and keeping their footing solid against a charging Wild Card pack.
- The Brewers swept the Twins, enjoying two off days on either side.
- The Cubs took two of three in Detroit, sliding into the 5-seed position.
- The Diamondbacks swept the Rangers at home, continuing their rally after opening August with nine straight defeats.
- Cincinnati swept the Angels in Anaheim, putting plenty of wind back in their sails after a tough few weeks.
- The Padres took two of three from the Marlins, pulling Miami down but failing to gain significant ground themselves on the playoff horde.
The Situation
We don’t include Thursday series openers in these, with either option of how to approach those somewhat confusing. (We’ll address them on Monday, but we’ll have some notes on them further down here, too.)
In the competitive divisions:
- The Mariners gained two games on the Rangers and half a game on the Astros.
- The Rays picked up a game on the Orioles.
- The Brewers edged half a game further ahead of the Cubs.
- The Guardians gained only half a game on the Twins.
And with the Wild Cards:
- The Diamondbacks gained a game on the Phillies and Cubs, the Reds and Giants and Marlins each lost a game, and the Padres held even.
- The Mariners gained half a game on the Astros and Red Sox, while the Blue Jays dropped half a game relative to those benchmarks.
Here’s where it leaves the playoff races:
American League
- Making the Playoffs (>95%): Baltimore, Tampa Bay
- Division Favorites (>90%): Minnesota
- Playoff-Likely (>50%): Texas, Houston, Seattle, Toronto
- Competing: Boston, Cleveland
In the East, the Rays have cut the Orioles’ lead to two games, but two games is a lot this late in the season and the Orioles do enjoy an easier schedule the rest of the way. Tampa Bay hosts the Yankees for three this weekend while the Orioles get three against Colorado.
The gap in the AL West is down to a single game, with the Rangers losing last night to open their four-game residency in Minneapolis. The two non-Rangers teams there are tied with one another, a game and a half up on the Blue Jays and three and a half up on the Red Sox. Toronto has a great schedule from here—though their three against Cleveland could be tricky this weekend, with the Guards still clinging to some life—but they’re looking more like the odd man out. Seattle gets Kansas City for three in Washington, Houston goes to Detroit for a trio, and Boston is hosting the Dodgers.
With a bad series this weekend, we might write off Cleveland. With a good series by the Twins, we might lock in Minnesota. This is all nominal, but we’re close to an 18-team playoff race, and only eight of those 18 would be in the American League.
National League
- In (>99%): Atlanta, Los Angeles
- Looking Good (>80%): Milwaukee, Philadelphia
- On the Brink (~50%): Chicago, Arizona, San Francisco
- Outside Looking In: Cincinnati, Miami, San Diego
The gap between Atlanta and Los Angeles remains at four games, and Atlanta shows little sign of letting up. They’ll visit the Giants this weekend while the Dodgers head to Boston.
That Giants series is a huge one for the home team, under assault from all directions in the Wild Card situation. They’re currently tied with the Reds half a game behind the Diamondbacks after Arizona bested Cincinnati in that four-game series’ opener last night. The Diamondbacks are, in turn, half a game behind the Cubs, who opened their four games in Pittsburgh yesterday with an extra-inning victory. The Cubs, then, are two games back of the Phillies, who host the Cardinals for three in Pennsylvania.
Behind that group, the Marlins are two games back of the 6-seed, hosting a Nationals team this weekend that’s 15–7 over its last seven series. That’s dangerous.
Bringing up the rear among those still alive are the Padres, who visit the Brewers for three this weekend. The Brewers are three games up in the Central.
The Best Games
Tonight, the headliner is probably Zach Eflin vs. Gerrit Cole in Tampa, though Brandon Woodruff vs. Yu Darvish is nothing to sneeze at up in Wisconsin. Kutter Crawford opposes Lance Lynn at Fenway, Logan Webb hosts Spencer Strider in San Francisco, Sonny Gray squares off with Dane Dunning in Minneapolis. To mix in some non-playoff teams, Brady Singer matches up with Bryce Miller in one which could hold some firepower, while Kodai Senga goes opposite Patrick Sandoval in Queens in a meeting of also-rans.
Tomorrow, Hyun Jin Ryu and Logan Allen kick things off early, with Julio Urías and James Paxton not far behind. It’s looking like Joe Ryan will return from the IL in Minnesota to face Max Scherzer.
The Sunday Night starters in San Francisco aren’t clear yet, but Justin Verlander pitches in Detroit for the Astros earlier in the day, and we’ve got Bailey Ober vs. Jordan Montgomery, Mike Clevinger vs. Paul Blackburn, and Adrian Houser vs. Michael Wacha in the heartland. Not a bad day of baseball.
Who’s Hot
With the Mariners’ winning streak over, the Brewers and Diamondbacks are tied for the longest active string of victories, having won five straight apiece. With the Yankees’ losing streak over, the Rangers now hold the longest active string of defeats, a run that’s currently sitting at seven.
Individually, Mookie Betts is now the best player on the month of August, with a .516 OBP over the month’s first 24 days. Cole Ragans is now the best pitcher on the month, and while some of that is him making his fifth start earlier than most, he’s gone nearly 30 innings while allowing just seven earned runs, striking out eleven on two occasions along the way.
Since the All-Star Break, Betts and Bobby Witt Jr. are neck and neck, with Witt’s defense carrying a lot of weight. WAR doesn’t make too much of versatility. Freddy Peralta’s narrowly ahead of Yusei Kikuchi for best pitcher over that timeframe. Each will get a start this weekend.
