The College Football Playoff committee doesn’t have explicitly set criteria. They consider a lot of strictly-defined things, sure, but there’s no rule on what tops what. The criteria, rather than a rubric, are a toolbox, and not so much for separating out teams as for justifying rankings. Results over common opponents matter…if they need to. Strength of schedule matters…if it needs to. The eye test matters…if all other tools have fallen short.
This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, and it might be by design. With few exceptions, the College Football Playoff committee has given a top four rather in line with what the public assumption would be. There have been tougher years than others, but in the end, the committee’s always done something the majority would likely acknowledge fits the definition of “common sense.”
Which is why Ohio State fans shouldn’t worry too much.
Ohio State may not play in the Big Ten Championship. They may only play one more regular season game. But unless the coronavirus outbreak gets so bad there that they don’t play a single additional game between now and the day of CFP selection, the committee will find a way to justify including them.
We think.
The truth is, we really don’t know. It’s possible public opinion will turn enough or something will happen in the committee room that changes the strength of this assumption. We’re dealing with a new sample set here, and that’s on top of trying to predict the behavior of subjective individuals tasked with subjectively deciding the four best college football teams in the country.
There was already one spot potentially up for grabs, either through Clemson bodying Notre Dame in a rematch or Notre Dame repeating their performance and eliminating the Tigers. Of course, the Tigers might not be eliminated by such a loss. Again, we don’t know. But at the very least, one spot was up for debate. The Ohio State situation makes that two spots. The possibility of Alabama losing or Clemson or Notre Dame losing a surprise game exists, as does the possibility of one of those teams suffering too significant of an outbreak to carry on, which would introduce a whole new set of questions. And while Texas A&M, Florida, and Cincinnati are the next guys up (in some order, and Florida would likely be eliminated with an SEC Championship loss to Alabama), it’s still worth it to ask about the next in line. So let’s do that.
Is there a second option in the Big Ten?
It’s hard to find one, now that Northwestern’s gone and embarrassed all of us who’d just begun to take them seriously. The best answer is Indiana, but Indiana’s best win is hard to identify, and not particularly inspiring once identified. Our model, which accounts for margin and location when measuring wins, says their victories over Michigan State and Rutgers were the most impressive, followed, in order, by those over Michigan, Maryland, and Penn State. Not inspiring, indeed. It’s possible Wisconsin could come back, guns blazing, and take over the public perception. It’s possible Indiana could do enough in remaining games to make a case for themselves. But without really slapping Cincinnati and Texas A&M in the face (the former is more likely to be slapped than the latter), it’s hard to see how the committee could find a Big Ten team that isn’t Ohio State.
Did we jump the gun writing the Big 12’s obituary?
It’s possible we did. The most likely scenario in that league is that we get a Big 12 championship consisting of a rematch between Oklahoma and Iowa State. Each has two losses—Oklahoma lost to Kansas State and Iowa State, Iowa State lost to Oklahoma State and Louisiana-Lafayette. But Louisiana-Lafayette will likely be ranked this week (their only loss came to still-undefeated Coastal Carolina by three), which starts to make the argument interesting, especially given the committee’s demonstrated preference for Power Five conference champions. Again, it’s hard to see the committee placing one of these teams ahead of both Cincinnati and Texas A&M, but it’s close enough, and things are uncertain enough, that we’d do well to keep an eye on them. Our model, for what it’s worth, thinks the win at Texas changed Iowa State’s résumé enough that if Iowa State were afforded the same loss forgiveness they were afforded in the initial rankings (which was a lot, and is likely to recede now that they’ve more legitimately earned their spot), they’d jump to fifth. Our model, let’s be clear, is working off of precedent in a situation in which precedent doesn’t apply. But that win did significantly change Iowa State’s résumé.
Was Oregon the Pac-12’s only hope?
There are three possible answers to this:
1. Yes.
2. No.
3. No, because the Pac-12 had no hope to begin with.
Colorado, Washington, and USC remain undefeated. None have looked “good.” But all could win a Power Five title as an undefeated team, and perhaps with one more win than Ohio State will have. Pressed to choose between these options and the Big 12, it’s hard to say which the committee would favor, but as we should keep reiterating, the answer is probably neither.
Is there anybody else?
It would be surprising if Buffalo weren’t ranked this week, and Coastal Carolina should climb a bit themselves, by way of attrition. But neither of these are that compelling, which leaves us with…
The Most Likely Situation
The most likely scenario is still an Alabama/Clemson/Ohio State/Notre Dame playoff, with Texas A&M, Cincinnati, and Florida all in the mix (Florida can play their way in, A&M and Cincinnati need help). Beyond them, BYU can be taken seriously but needs some scheduling magic, and then there’s a big pile of teams that are viable options but will probably only be taken in a real pinch. Things could get more chaotic, though, and not just on the field. In fact, for the next two weeks, it’s more likely than not the chaos will be limited to off-the-field, with little in the way of challenging games for contenders.
What a weird situation.
P.S. Don’t sleep on the possibility of an all-SEC and ACC playoff. Florida beats Alabama. Clemson beats Notre Dame narrowly. Ohio State doesn’t win the Big Ten, finishes only 6-0. It’s not likely, but the probability’s what…10%?
