Both our NCAAT Bracketology and NIT Bracketology are now updated, including results from this weekend’s games. A few thoughts on what’s happened since they were last updated a week ago, and where things stand overall:
Ohio State Is Ok
Losing to Minnesota this year is not a good thing, even on the road, and Ohio State’s national championship probability dropped considerably following the loss. Still, they’re projected as narrowly more likely than Kansas or Duke to be the overall number one seed. This doesn’t mean they’ll be the number one seed, of course: it’s more likely that they won’t be. But it’s meaningful that after a bad loss like this one, they’re still at the top of the pack, and it’s a testament to both what they’ve done so far and the overall strength of the Big Ten, which our model is projecting to land somewhere around nine teams in the NCAA Tournament.
Minnesota Needed Something Like That
The Gophers managed to climb the seed list on the week even after losing by twenty at Iowa (whom we’ll get to later). They got back to .500 overall, and on Saturday they get a shot at an Oklahoma State team that may or may not be without Isaac Likekele. Win that and beat FIU, and they’re right in the thick of the bubble mix entering conference play.
North Carolina Is Not Ok
UNC’s loss to Wofford was disastrous. Wofford was good last year. The same can’t be said for this year’s team. Yes, they’ll compete in the SoCon, but they’re far from a contender even in their own league. It’s a bad, bad loss, and it was responsible for UNC being one of three teams to drop three seed lines from last week to this week in the NCAAT Bracketology (the others being Houston, who underwhelmed on the week and missed an opportunity at a nice win; and Iowa State, who got pummeled at home by Iowa).
Iowa Is Rising—But Where Do They Go?
It was a banner week for the Hawkeyes: Two dominant performances over respectable, if not admirable, foes. Their offense is now rated the best in the country by KenPom, and while they still project out to only a five-seed, that would be their highest seed since 2006.
The decision now has to be made on whether or not Jordan Bohannon will redshirt. I mistakenly thought the decision had already been made (I’m not sure where I got that, but apologies if I led anyone astray) that he would redshirt, but it’s evidently still up in the air, and it only has to be made by Saturday.
Bohannon, if you aren’t following Iowa basketball closely (which would be fair), has been playing through what sounds to be significant hip pain following an offseason procedure. He’s one of just three seniors for Iowa, and the only senior in their starting five. He’d likely play better next year if he were to wait it out, and next year’s team does have an opportunity to do special things as well, with everyone a year older and a few other contributors back healthy. Opportunities can vanish quickly, though, and one is here right now for the University of Iowa’s men’s basketball program. It’s a tough tradeoff for both Bohannon, who presumably wants to play professional basketball somewhere after he graduates, and for Iowa, who must figure out how to weigh the present, the future, and what’s best for their leader.
Memphis and Others Built a Cushion
Memphis, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Wichita State, and Oklahoma State all climbed two or more seed lines over the week. Memphis and Oklahoma State were the most notable, given they both got strong victories without key players, and Texas Tech got the most attention, given they beat Louisville, but all five can feel a lot safer than they did last Monday, at least for the time being.
Mountain West Talk; NET Talk
I mentioned this on Twitter earlier, but San Diego State’s NET ranking was affirming for our model. All season, our model’s had the Aztecs as the Mountain West favorite, but national championship odds have been unavailable for them in some places.
To be fair, San Diego State’s Mountain West chances might not seem so strong when Neemias Queta’s back at full health for Utah State, or when both he and Kuba Karwowski are available. Even then, though, the teams should be a good match, and San Diego State does get to make their trip to Logan early in the conference slate, when Utah State figures to still be under full strength.
The NET Rankings at this stage aren’t entirely meaningful, but they also aren’t entirely meaningless. With no preseason expectations built into their formula, and with few conference games to iron out kinks, they’re more a measure of how well teams have managed to win, and win by a lot, than they are an accurate projection of where they themselves will wind up. They’ll settle in over the next two months, so for now, too much shouldn’t be made of them. Nonetheless, it’s better to be in a good place in NET at this stage than a bad one, and we’ll be taking some time in the next few weeks to compare our estimation of them to where they actually stand and possibly alter our formula if we think that’s necessary. It’s worth remembering too that a team’s opponents’ NET’s may actually be more important than their own: a team’s own NET is just one variable on the team sheet. Its opponents’ NET’s determine how the team sheet is presented to the selection committee.
Why Butler and Baylor Flipped Places
Last week, Butler was a 3-seed and Baylor was a 2-seed. On Tuesday, Baylor beat Butler. Today, Butler has risen to a 2-seed, and Baylor has dropped to the 3-line. What gives?
The short answer is that Butler covered. Yes, beating Baylor on the road would have been nice, but at this point in the season, we’re more interested in what a team is going to do than what it’s done, for the simple reason that there’s more of the latter than there is of the former.
Other factors influenced the swap, though. Purdue’s incontinent showing at Nebraska swung Butler’s chances at a neutral-court win this weekend mightily in a positive direction. Butler’s win over Minnesota suddenly looks a lot better than it did a week ago, and to a lesser extent, Stanford and Missouri also helped nudge Butler’s body of work ahead.
On the whole, yes, Baylor’s résumé is better for having beaten Butler than for having a 50/50 shot at beating Butler. It’s so early, though, and teams are so tightly bunched through much of the field, that indirect factors are still playing a large role in shaping our model’s expectations.
