For a competent franchise, 20-game losing streaks are theoretically possible. In a recent era, there were instances when they might have been advisable, although the draft lottery probably cut those off in time. If a respectable organization lost 20 games in a row under a dunce of a manager, we’d probably be joking about that team playing to the fans, waiting to fire their skipper until the streak was over. Let the guy finish what he started, etc.
With the White Sox, the situation is different. The White Sox aren’t in this for entertainment, and they better not be in it for draft picks, because under those new-ish lottery rules, they’ve been bad for too long a stretch to pick better than tenth overall. How has Pedro Grifol not been fired? I don’t know either. But the fact he survived last offseason makes me doubt there’s any on or off-field result that could change his position in the organization’s eyes. Maybe he’s on the brink, maybe not. The calculation presumably has more to do with Jerry Reinsdorf’s appetite for the buyout than anything else.
Against this backdrop, the Sox head to Oakland. There they face a bad team, but one tied for the best record in the American League since the start of July. The Sox are a big underdog tonight. The rest of the series might get worse.
The longest losing streak in Major League Baseball history came in 1961. The Phillies lost 23 games in a row en route to a 47–107 season. It was Gene Mauch’s second season managing. The next year, the Phillies produced a winning record. We will not go further with this comparison, for fear of creating false hope or disrespecting Mauch’s memory by comparing him to Grifol.
If the A’s sweep the White Sox, the White Sox tie those ’61 Phils. If the White Sox then lose on Friday to the Cubs, the record is the 2024 White Sox’ alone. How likely is this? It depends how you measure.
| Method | P(Tie) | P(Break) |
| FanGraphs | 22% | 10% |
| Odds-Adjusted | 31% | 16% |
| Bullpen-Adjusted | 26% | 13% |
We used three different approaches to estimate the probability of the White Sox at least tying the record and the probability of the White Sox breaking the record. First, we used FanGraphs’s single-game probabilities, numbers which don’t incorporate lineups but do incorporate starting pitchers. Second, we looked at where betting markets stand regarding tonight’s game and applied that surcharge to the FanGraphs probabilities for the rest of the White Sox’ games this week. Third, we adjusted the odds-based approach by slightly reducing the A’s chances in tomorrow’s and Wednesday’s games, accounting for the fact that it often burns more bullpen to win than to lose.
No matter which method you use, the result is something like a 1-in-4 probability that the White Sox at least tie the record. That’s the probability of two straight coin flips coming up heads. To break the record requires another coin flip. Garrett Crochet is in line to start on Friday, which at least on paper boosts the White Sox’ chances.
To be honest, we’d buy at any of these odds. Even if the market was set to a 69/31 split on the White Sox to at least tie the Phillies’ record, we would bet that to happen. Why? Let’s go back to Grifol:
The value of managers is easy to overrate, and has long been overrated by narratives, if not the labor market (paradoxically, managers are paid far too little for the impact they purportedly produce). In certain cases, though, managers can become a big deal, and they can disproportionately become a big deal in a bad way. It’s easier for a manager to add ten losses than to add five wins. At least, that’s our theory.
Clearly, something is going wrong with the White Sox. Their roster’s quality is that of a 64-win team. Their on-field performance has them on pace for just 38 wins. Losing streaks this long aren’t as improbable as you might think—each team has 143 different 20-game stretches across a regular season, effectively giving them each 143 chances to lose 20 in a row—but winning half as many games as you should, when the number of games you should win is already the lowest in the league? That’s outrageous. That signals, at least to us, that players are collectively underperforming to a massive, massive degree. It’s not a strategic thing. It’s not a stroke of bad luck (the White Sox are a little unlucky by run differential, but they’re not this unlucky). It’s nearly everyone on the roster playing worse than their career bodies of work indicate they should play.
There’s a common denominator here, and it’s the clubhouse, the one where Tim Anderson allegedly slapped Yasmani Grandal last summer, the one where Grifol’s been accused of recently telling players it would be their fault and theirs alone if the White Sox finished the season with the worst record in baseball history. It is very hard to do your job if you don’t want to do your job. At this point, everything we can see—these numbers, the on-field lapses, the off-field rumblings—indicates that the White Sox do not want to do their jobs. Why don’t they want to? Where did the motivation go? With the problem this widespread, it’s hard to find someone more deserving of blame than Grifol. He’s in charge of the workplace. That’s the most important thing a manager does.
It’s always possible there’s something we’re missing, something else steering the ship astray. But the roster turned over substantially since last year, and the pattern is the same: Bad play on the field. Bad results on the scoreboard. Bad reports from unnamed sources. Everything points back to Grifol as the direct, exacerbating problem, and with absolutely no reason to keep him around, the trail leads back to that buyout. Is the buyout large? Not at all. Managers make pennies compared to the best players. That still doesn’t mean Jerry Reinsdorf’s willing to pay it.
So, the White Sox charge onwards towards history, led by a man who shouldn’t be there. The Jerry Reinsdorf experience, distilled to its essence.
News/moves/injuries/speculation:
- Ky Bush starts tonight’s game, making his major league debut. The White Sox got Bush as part of the Lucas Giolito/Reynaldo López return last year. He’s not a great prospect, and he has a 5.78 FIP on the season at Triple-A, but he’s good enough to be noteworthy.
- Dominic Leone’s active again, off the 60-day IL. Sammy Peralta’s heading back to the minors to make space for him.
- Drew Thorpe went on the 15-day IL on Friday with a flexor strain. That’s ominous, but hopefully they caught it early enough to stop any (ulnar) collateral damage. The Sox called up Prelander Berroa to join the bullpen in Thorpe’s immediate absence, but Berroa’s back down now to make room for Bush.
Games:
- Monday, 8:40 PM CDT: White Sox at Oakland (NBC Sports Chicago/MLB Network)
- Tuesday, 8:40 PM CDT: White Sox at Oakland (NBC Sports Chicago)
- Wednesday, 2:37 PM CDT: White Sox at Oakland (NBC Sports Chicago)
As mentioned, Bush starts tonight, with Jonathan Cannon up tomorrow and Davis Martin taking the ball on Wednesday. For the A’s, it’s JP Sears, Ross Stripling, and Joey Estes, in order. Stripling has the worst ERA and win–loss record of the three, but his peripherals are solid.
An Eye for an Eye
My favorite part of this Sahadev Sharma piece on Pete Crow-Armstrong is just how many of his veteran teammates are mentioned as givers of advice. It creates the impression that the Cubs themselves, the players, are invested in Crow-Armstrong’s development. This is especially relevant after Saturday’s mistake, and it reaffirms Nico Hoerner’s postgame sentiment regarding that mistake: No one better get the idea Crow-Armstrong’s teammates are unhappy with his efforts.
Thursday’s was a great win. Saturday’s was a terrible loss. Those things go in tandem in baseball. It’s easy to get into the sentiment that “playoff teams don’t lose games like Saturday’s.” but rare is the team that doesn’t lose games like Saturday’s at some point in a 162-game season. Teams with winning records do tend to lose fewer games terribly, but that’s because they’re losing fewer games overall.
Do the Cubs overindex in terrible losses this year? You’re not imagining it. They do. They have the most one-run losses in baseball, and while they’re tied for the most one-run games played on the year, they’re only 16–23 in those contests. It is true that the Cubs have more terrible losses this year than great wins. Even with that, though, the Cubs are only two games worse than their Pythagorean record, and only three games worse than their BaseRuns mark. What does that mean? While the Cubs’ one-run record is bad, it exaggerates the problem. They’re not quite that bad in close games. It’s only pulled them two or three games back in the standings.
To bring this back to Crow-Armstrong: His mistake on Saturday did not stem from a lack of alertness. It was a consequence of trying to do too much. That’s the right side to err on, and it’s the trait that paid off last night when he successfully got Miles Mikolas called for a balk. Even with Saturday’s loss, it was a great four-game set for the home team. They’re still not quite out of this.
News/moves/injuries/speculation:
- Isaac Paredes’s overthrow of first base set the stage for Crow-Armstrong’s mistake to be game-tying. It moved that tying run to second. It also may have led to Ian Happ slamming his shoulder into the wall the next inning on the Tommy Pham triple. Happ’s back in tonight’s lineup, but it’s something to keep an eye on. Paredes, like Crow-Armstrong, didn’t commit some cardinal sin. But he did make a mistake with ramifications beyond the inning and game in which it happened. You never know which ones will do that.
- Adbert Alzolay will have surgery on his forearm, missing the rest of the 2024 season. From the sounds of various reports, they’re still determining which surgical procedure is best, but surgery’s on its way, and there’ll be no more Alzolay this year.
Games:
- Monday, 7:05 PM CDT: Cubs vs. Minnesota (Marquee)
- Tuesday, 7:05 PM CDT: Cubs vs. Minnesota (Marquee)
- Wednesday, 7:05 PM CDT: Cubs vs. Minnesota (Marquee)
The Cubs haven’t announced their starters yet for tomorrow and Wednesday’s games. Shōta Imanaga would be in line to start tomorrow, but he’s yet to pitch on four days’ rest in back-to-back starts, which I’m assuming is the cause for hesitation. The sample is small, but he’s performed well on the normal MLB cadence, which makes me think the Cubs will ultimately roll with him, but it’s possible they’ll do a bullpen game tomorrow and throw Imanaga on Wednesday before the day off on Thursday. With only five games this week, Counsell might be quicker to turn to his relievers.
Kyle Hendricks opposes David Festa tonight, with Pablo López on deck tomorrow for the Twins ahead of a Joe Ryan outing on Wednesday. López and Ryan’s topline numbers aren’t excellent, but those numbers are deceptive. Ryan’s been a top-ten pitcher in the AL this year, going by fWAR, and López has annually been among baseball’s best since his first full healthy season in 2022. If Imanaga does go tomorrow, it would set Javier Assad up to start on Wednesday. I certainly wouldn’t be opposed to pushing Assad’s outing back to Friday against the White Sox. That would let the Cubs open the Cleveland series with an extremely well-rested Justin Steele while creating an easier matchup for the struggling Assad.
Regardless of which course they choose with their own rotation, the Twins’ starters make tonight the game the Cubs most need to win. Get tonight’s game, and the series stays manageable.
One final note: Entering tonight, the Cubs’ division odds are better than their Wild Card odds on FanGraphs. Neither is good or anything, but the shape of the division race makes the Brewers easier to catch than at least two of the Braves, Padres, Diamondbacks, and Mets. That’s with the Brewers holding the tiebreaker, too.
Don’t Extend Keenan Allen
How about Brett Rypien?
The Hall of Fame Game happened, and the Hall of Fame weekend was great. I’m afraid that’s the extent of analysis I can offer on the opening round of Bears preseason play. Moving on…
In his post-extension press conference last week, DJ Moore lobbied the Bears to extend Keenan Allen. This is a good thing for DJ Moore to do. Teammates backing teammates is a small, strong gesture. Should the Bears’ front office listen? Of course not. Allen is 32 years old, has missed chunks of three of the last four seasons, and wasn’t a top-ten receiver in the one year he did complete. He’s good, but extending him is unnecessary.
This seems to be how the Bears are viewing it as well, with no reported progress between the two parties. Allen’s team has reportedly asked for an extension, and it hasn’t happened, and one way to read that is that the Bears are trying to say “thanks, but no thanks” without offending their player.
News/moves/injuries/speculation:
- Nate Davis was back in full pads for at least part of practice yesterday, but plenty of others have been out, including both Darnell Wright and Teven Jenkins on the offensive line plus nearly half the first string on defense. Given the absence of noise around all these injuries, we’re assuming this has more to do with an abundance of caution, the extra preseason game, etc. than with anything serious. We should find out soon.
- The Bears waived second long-snapping option Cameron Lyons on Friday, signing undrafted defensive back Ro Torrence in his place. Not a lot to make of that one either.
- Hard Knocks premiers tomorrow at 8 PM Central on HBO’s platforms. Again, really not sure if there’ll be any insight of note. Everyone will get to know the Bears better, though, and probably through an especially sympathetic lens. (All Bears lenses are sympathetic right now, as we’ve talked about before.)
Nikola Vučević and the Trade Machine
In a broader discussion about the Bulls’ 2024–25 rotation, Joe Cowley mentioned yesterday that efforts to trade Zach LaVine and Nikola Vučević haven’t stopped. Unfortunately, he does not report there’s any momentum towards finding partners to take these players.
The LaVine situation is simple: He’s nearly impossible to trade because he makes way, way, way, way too much money for what he brings to the table. Making matters worse, NBA front offices are more cash-strapped than they’ve been in years, encountering the new second apron for the first time.
The Vučević situation is almost the exact same, but with two key differences: First, Vučević is only paid too much, as opposed to being the beneficiary of the worst contract in the NBA. Second, Vučević isn’t actively unhappy (although Cowley seconded the New York Times’s report that Billy Donovan’s reconcile–with–Zach–LaVine trip to Los Angeles wasn’t fruitless).
With Vučević’s contract not a kraken pulling the Bulls into the depths of the sea, then, we can at least play with the Trade Machine, and…
It’s still pretty tough.
Finding a team who might be interested in Vučević is messy. Nearly the whole league is in cap hell, and while Vučević’s contract is fine, he isn’t cheap. It’s hard to fit a backup center into a starting center’s space in the budget, especially when the team trading him seems eager to avoid perceptions of an all-out tank. Might someone want him as a starter? Maybe. One team that does have cap space is, in a comedic twist, the Magic, although Orlando’s dissatisfaction with Wendell Carter Jr. doesn’t quite seem substantial enough to warrant a return of the original deal. So, for as funny as it would be if the Bulls sent Carter and picks to get Vučević only to eventually send Vučević and picks to get Carter (and a bench player to add to this vaunted youth movement), that seems almost as unlikely as the Bulls accepting someone else’s salary dump in return. The Trade Machine lets you add Jett Howard or a few others to the deal. It lets you make Cole Anthony the centerpiece. I don’t think those trades are particularly realistic.
There’s a reason neither LaVine nor Vučević has been traded, and while earlier in the offseason we could theorize about what that reason might be, by this point it seems clear: There isn’t a market right now. As Cowley notes and others have noted, that could change when the season begins and players start going down. At that point, maybe we can fire up the Trade Machine and start speculating for real. Right now, it’s appearing safe that Vučević and LaVine will both begin the 2024–25 season employed by the Bulls.
The Blackhawks and the Royals
The Kansas City Royals are making a stir in the baseball world. Expected preseason to finish roughly twelve games under .500, they’re thirteen games over .500 entering this week. Their playoff chances are better than a coin flip with more than two thirds of the season complete. How did they do this? That’s why we brought them up: They assembled a veteran supporting cast around one young superstar and his accompanying burgeoning core.
There are differences between the Royals and the Blackhawks. Connor Bedard is great, but he isn’t what Bobby Witt Jr. is in the baseball world. The Royals’ young talent was a little more developed entering the season than the Blackhawks’ will be. Correlated with that, the Royals’ offseason was quieter than Kyle Davidson’s free agent blitz. It wasn’t silent, though, and the big pickups—Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha—have been indispensable, the pieces of the effort that have made the whole thing work. Ideally, something similar happens with Tyler Bertuzzi, Teuvo Teravainen, and the rest.
The Royals had half as much work to do last winter as Davidson did last month. The approach was the same. It worked!
