The Major League Baseball playoffs consist of four rounds. Advance through all four, and you’re the World Series champion. For most playoff teams, those without a first round bye, this means winning four series in a row.
Between now and the trade deadline, the Cubs play four series:*
- Four games at St. Louis
- Three games vs. Arizona
- Three games vs. Milwaukee
- Three games at Kansas City
It’s a tough stretch. All four of those teams might make the playoffs. All four are within one game of playoff position right now. But with the Orioles in the rearview, the Cubs have accomplished the hardest part. The Cubs not only beat a very good team. They swept one.
We made a big deal last week about how badly the Cubs needed to sweep the Angels to have any chance of buying at the deadline. We made a big deal on Monday about how frustrating their loss to the Angels therefore was. The Cubs’ path to deadline buying, entering last weekend, was to win every pre-deadline series and sweep one. That was what would get them above .500 in time for the decision to be made. (Given the NL Wild Card standings, .500 is more significant this year than just being a round number.) When the Cubs lost that game last Saturday to the Angels, we called it over. We were wrong. It wasn’t over. The Cubs got their sweep. And while the path ahead remains tough, especially given the pitching matchups this weekend and especially given Cody Bellinger’s injury, “not over” is a whole lot better than the alternative.
The simplest way for the Cubs to make themselves deadline buyers is to win all four of these upcoming four series. Winning four series in a row to keep the season going? That’s playoff baseball. Which brings us to our real point:
I know Justin Steele just threw a complete game last Friday and that the Cubs want him healthy in perpetuity. But given this weekend is playoff baseball, was a potential bullpen appearance on Sunday part of the reason behind Steele exiting after 70 pitches? The Cubs will have to use a ton of arms during the Saturday doubleheader. Why not give Steele a couple innings in relief in Game 4, if the series still hangs in the balance? If this was playoff baseball, the move would be obvious. It is close enough to playoff baseball that unless Steele has some nagging injury, the move is obvious.
Two more thoughts on what happened in Baltimore:
- How about Luke Little and Porter Hodge? The thing that broke the recent script was that seventh inning on Wednesday. The bullpen created a problem, but then the bullpen held. Little may have been somewhat responsible for the drama, having hit James McCann, but after a 19-minute break, he delivered on one of the biggest pitches of the game and sent down one of the best players in the game.
- Michael Busch and Shōta Imanaga continue to be the Cubs’ best players, and while my complaints with the Hoyer administration have grown, I would like to continue to stress that offseason personnel moves have generally been positive under him.
Moves/Injuries/News/Speculation:
- The big one is Cody Bellinger. Onto the IL with a broken finger; Alexander Canario recalled to take his place; Trayce Thompson signed to a minor league contract to provide some depth in the wings. I haven’t seen any prognosis on Bellinger’s timing. I would guess this hurts his trade value even if he recovers, because by decreasing his counting stats it at least marginally increases the probability he opts into the second year of his contract, and teams are likelier to overweight that than underweight it, given how most MLB franchises handle that kind of risk.
- Jon Heyman reported the Rockies will listen to offers for catcher Elias Díaz. Put a pin in that one. He’s not a great hitter, and his defense has been up and down the last few years, and the Rockies are a strange organization which puts strange value on its players. But the midseason catcher acquisition market isn’t traditionally fierce, and the position remains the Cubs’ biggest weakness. I don’t think the Cubs will actually get to a place where they buy, but put a pin in it.
- In addition to Imanaga, the Cubs sent three prospects to Arlington this weekend for the Futures Game. Matt Shaw, Owen Caissie, and Moises Ballesteros, with Ballesteros competing in a skills competition which will be broadcast Sunday morning. In addition to the on-field action, the draft starts Sunday night. The Cubs select 14th overall. They shouldn’t get a top-100 prospect at that point in the draft, but it’s likelier that whoever they draft becomes a top-100 prospect than it is at, say, 30th.
- In the other move this week, Mark Leiter Jr. came off the IL, which sent Ethan Roberts back to Des Moines for the time being.
The Games:
- Friday, 7:15 PM CDT: Cubs at St. Louis (Apple TV+)
- Saturday, 1:15 PM CDT: Cubs at St. Louis (Marquee)
- Saturday, 7:15 PM CDT: Cubs at St. Louis (Marquee)
- Sunday, 1:15 PM CDT: Cubs at St. Louis (Marquee)
The Cardinals did get swept in a doubleheader on Wednesday. The memory is fresh. Whether that works for or against the Cubs is unclear. Theoretically, the Cards should be a little less likely to be caught off guard, but they’re also clearly capable of something rare. (Overall, it’s just two games, the same as Friday and Sunday are two games. But you have to think on the margins!)
It’s a bad setup. The Cardinals will almost certainly retain playoff position so long as they split the set of four. The Cardinals are starting their four most comfortable starters (the veterans—Gray, Lynn, Gibson, and Mikolas, in order). The Cubs won’t start Imanaga or Steele. We now have to live with the ever-present fear that Kyle Hendricks’s body isn’t ready to pitch and he and Craig Counsell have agreed to send him out there anyway. On Sunday, Jameson Taillon pitches. On Sunday, we will be in as comfortable a place as the situation allows. But what will have happened by the time we get there?
Javier Assad could maybe return to start one of the games on Saturday? That could be a jolt. It could also go badly, but the alternatives are rough. Michael Arias is the only active minor league starting pitcher on the 40-man roster, and he has a 5.17 FIP at Triple-A. If it’s not Assad, it has to be a bullpen game.
*Yes, they also play the first game of a fifth series against the Cincinnati Reds before the deadline hits. It’s fair, though, to ignore that Reds game for the purpose of prognosticating. It’s unlikely the Cubs’ deadline approach on Tuesday will hinge on that Monday night game.
Can the White Sox Draft Well?
It’s a big weekend for a lot of teams in a lot of ways. Unfortunately for the White Sox, they’re one of those for whom the draft is the most important part.
The White Sox’ farm system is doing rather well. Colson Montgomery is still figuring out Triple-A pitching, and Bryan Ramos’s debut weeks didn’t go well, but the organization has a handful of top-100 prospects, and they’ve got the opportunity to pick up another on Sunday night before the Garrett Crochet auction begins in earnest.
Drafting fifth, the Sox will have their choice of a group which could include JJ Wetherholt, Konnor Griffin, and even Jac Caglianone. The industry expectation is currently that Caglianone—an established college talent at Florida—will fall to fifth. The only word on the White Sox’ plan seems to be that they’re interested in Griffin, a high-upside high school outfielder from Mississippi. It’s possible they’d go with a pitcher instead (this would take them away from Wetherholt as well), but those who know better than I are guessing hitter, and Caglianone would be the low-risk, cornerstone-adding move. Given the White Sox’ track record on pretty much everything, I would recommend minimizing risk. But Griffin might be available for less than slot value, and the White Sox are a chaotic group!
Games:
- Friday, 7:10 PM CDT: White Sox vs. Pittsburgh
- Saturday, 1:10 PM CDT: White Sox vs. Pittsburgh
- Sunday, 1:10 PM CDT: White Sox vs. Pittsburgh
Crochet pitches tonight and might be on a short count ahead of the All-Star Game. It has not yet been leaked whether anyone’s trying to go home early for the break this year.
Moves/Injuries/News/Speculation:
- Dominic Fletcher’s back off the IL, but he was immediately sent down to Charlotte.
- Jake Eder was the 27th man for the Twins doubleheader, but he didn’t get in the game.
Angel Reese’s Missed Shots
The Sky took care of business against Atlanta and had business taken care of against them by New York. Angel Reese? A double-double in both games.
More and more people are noticing something about Angel Reese’s double-doubles: The woman gets a lot of rebounds off her own missed shots.
Reese is not a very good finisher around the rim. She should improve at this—she’s a rookie, after all—but she is raw down there. Out of 113 qualified players, Reese ranks 90th in the WNBA in true shooting percentage. We’re at the point where the double-double streak is undoubtedly longer because of Reese failing to finish inside. That’s how it happened against the Liberty.
Is it really inflating the rebound stats, though? Or is this only noteworthy because of the double-double piece of it?
Well…
Reese leads the NBA in rebounds per game.
She’s only sixth in defensive rebounds per game.
Again, Reese is a rookie. She shouldn’t be the best rebounder in the league. But she also isn’t the best rebounder in the league. And the double-double streak is longer than it should be thanks to her missing so many good looks down low. She’s still a top-ten rebounder, and she got herself close enough to all these double-doubles for misses to carry the night in a few of them, and she deserves credit for both those things. She just isn’t as good as the double-double streak implies.
Game:
- Saturday, 12:00 PM CDT: Sky vs. New York (ABC)
The Sky enter the weekend half a game up on the Fever for seventh place and a game and a half up on the Dream for playoff position. Which is good. Because this is a tough matchup.
DeRozan Details
RealGM indicates the second-round picks the Bulls got for DeMar DeRozan come in the 2025 and 2028 drafts. In 2025, then, the Bulls most likely have their own first-round pick (it’s top-10 protected and otherwise goes to the Spurs) and the Kings’ second-round pick. The Bulls’ own second-rounder is going to San Antonio, and the Blazers’ first-rounder which could come to Chicago is top-14 protected.
Put otherwise:
- The Bulls have the Kings’ second-round pick.
- If the Bulls are bad, they also have their own first-round pick.
- If the Blazers are good, the Bulls also have the Blazers’ first-round pick.
Go Blazers. Rip City, baby.
Games??
- Saturday, 3:30 PM CDT: Bulls vs. Milwaukee (ESPN+/NBA TV)
- Sunday, 9:00 PM CDT: Bulls vs. Golden State (ESPN2/ESPN+)
Summer League! Matas Buzelis, Julian Phillips, Adama Sanoga, Andrew Funk, and Marcus Domask headline the Chicago roster.
**
Nothing today on the Bears or Blackhawks, in the interests of time. We’ll circle back to them next week.
