The Cubs have won six straight games and nine of their last ten. Over the course of those ten contests, they’ve averaged nearly ten runs per game. They won via dramatic comeback last Wednesday, held on in a nailbiter on Friday, and beat the pants off the Nationals yesterday afternoon. They’ve closed the Wild Card gap to three games. They are only seven percent likely to make the playoffs, a roughly 1-in-14 probability.
Why aren’t those odds better, with the gap only one series’ worth of games?
First, the gap isn’t really three games. It’s 3.5. The Cubs trail Atlanta by three, but they don’t hold the tiebreaker. Neither do they hold the tiebreaker over the Mets, who currently sit between Chicago and Atlanta in the race for that sixth spot. If the Padres fall into that sixth spot and the Cubs tie them? Advantage: Padres. The Diamondbacks? It’s technically still up in the air, but the Diamondbacks currently hold the edge.
The Cubs, then, need to take sixth place outright. They can’t get in via a tie. Tiebreaker games were eliminated (boo!) with the expansion to the six-team playoff.
Second, the Cubs have a tough little stretch coming up. We and others made a lot of noise earlier this summer about the nice schedule awaiting the Cubs the rest of the way. The schedule has been nice. The win streak has come against the Pirates and Nationals. The series preceding those two were against the Marlins, Tigers, and Blue Jays. Not too long ago, the Cubs got to spend a weekend with the White Sox. It’s been a good time.
Unfortunately, that was the really good part of the slate, and while the upcoming stretch isn’t terrible overall, nine games do remain against the three World Series favorites. The Yankees visit this weekend, then the Cubs go to Los Angeles, and looking forward to the season’s final week, the club travels to Philadelphia. Ideally, the Phillies will have clinched the NL East by then, and if they haven’t, it probably means the Cubs are struggling to catch the Braves or Mets anyway (since at least one of the pair would have had to close the gap in that division). But it’s not guaranteed, there’ll still likely be seeding at stake, and MLB rosters aren’t big enough for the Phils to rest every starter.
Third, the Braves have a great little stretch coming up. Great for them, I mean. Fifteen of Atlanta’s remaining 24 games come against teams approaching playoff elimination.
Fourth, the Braves are better than the Cubs. Even with all the injuries. They’re not as good as they’d be with a healthy Ronald Acuña Jr., but they’re good.
Overall, then, the Cubs are chasing a better team than them. That better team has the easier schedule the rest of the way. That better team also holds the tiebreaker. The Cubs aren’t out of it—1-in-14 is the same as the probability Shohei Ohtani hits a home run in a given plate appearance—but they need to keep winning, and they’ll need at least a little bit of help. It is possible the Cubs will need more than 90 wins to make this playoff field.
News/injuries/moves/speculation:
- Going back to last week (since we were in such a hurry on Friday), the Cubs called up Daniel Palencia and Keegan Thompson, sending Jack Neely back to the minors and moving Julian Merryweather to the IL with knee tendinitis. Then, they claimed reliever Shawn Armstrong off waivers from the Cardinals, prompting the release of Tomás Nido. Finally, they sent Palencia back down, activated Jordan Wicks, called up Miles Mastrobuoni, and moved Nick Madrigal onto the 60-day IL. That leaves the 40-man roster still at 40 and the active roster up to 28 men with September underway. Wicks responded to the activation with a nice little outing yesterday. The Cubs might need a lot out of him.
- Ben Brown is done for the season, which is disappointing but not especially surprising. The neck is a funky thing, and the nature of the injury was odd. On one hand, it’s nice it wasn’t his arm, but on the other, it’s easy to see a neck—like Brennan Davis’s back—continuing to experience complications as time goes on.
- In former Cub news, Javy Báez is done for the year, undergoing hip surgery, and Jason Heyward is on the Astros now. I assume the Cubs will face him in the World Series.
Games:
- Monday, 6:40 PM CDT: Cubs vs. Pirates (Marquee)
- Tuesday, 6:40 PM CDT: Cubs vs. Pirates (Marquee)
- Wednesday, 6:40 PM CDT: Cubs vs. Pirates (Marquee)
Jameson Taillon pitches tonight against Jared Jones, with Justin Steele set to duel Paul Skenes tomorrow. On Wednesday, Shōta Imanaga takes the ball against an unannounced Pirates starter. That might be a bullpen game for Pittsburgh, but it’s possible I’ve missed a report.
The goal is to sweep the Pirates. Keep the win streak going, and keep the pressure on Atlanta. 1-in-14 isn’t great. But these are high-leverage games. That means the numbers can change faster than they do in April. For those wondering: The Braves play the Rockies this week in Atlanta. The Mets play the Red Sox in Queens. The Padres host the (red-hot!) Tigers while the Diamondbacks travel to San Francisco after losing today to the Dodgers. We have always been Rockies/Red Sox/Tigers/Giants fans around these parts.
The White Sox vs. History
Speaking of those FanGraphs projected standings…
After today’s loss, the White Sox are projecting to end the year with 40.3 wins and 121.7 losses. That’s the average simulation, the one the Sox have consistently been underperforming. The 1962 Mets went 40–120–1, meaning the White Sox are narrowly projecting to set the record. Those rooting for history would probably be more satisfied with a win total under 40. Not that I’m speaking for myself here.
News/injuries/moves/speculation:
- Last week: John Brebbia was designated for assignment, the Sox dodging a $250K bonus. Bryan Ramos and Sammy Peralta were both sent down. Prelander Berroa and Nick Nastrini were both called up, and Matt Foster briefly came up for the suspended game/doubleheader.
- Yesterday, the Sox called up Zach DeLoach and Jairo Iriarte. Iriarte is a decent prospect, ranked in most top 100’s before and after coming over in the Dylan Cease trade. One ominous note from FanGraphs’s preseason writeup on the guy: “We’re bullish and think the added time that the White Sox have to develop him as a starter…gives him a better chance of maxing out.” Calling him up from Double-A doesn’t preclude developing him as a starter, but he’s not currently listed as an upcoming starter. It’s probably fine, but as with everything, it’s easy to see the White Sox messing this up.
- Last night, MLB.com reported that Drew Thorpe is going to have season-ending surgery on his elbow. It’s not Tommy John surgery, which is good given it was a flexor strain which initially sidelined Thorpe. He’ll have a bone spur removed, and he should be ready to go for spring training.
Games:
- Tuesday, 5:35 PM CDT: White Sox at Baltimore (NBC Sports Chicago)
- Wednesday, 5:35 PM CDT: White Sox at Baltimore (NBC Sports Chicago)
Nastrini gets the ball tomorrow against Cade Povich. Jonathan Cannon takes the mound in the finale opposite Albert Suárez.
Who’s on the Bears
Some highlights from the Bears’ 53-man roster and 12-man practice squad:
- Brett Rypien landed with the Vikings as a backup. The Bears got Austin Reed onto the practice squad.
- Long snapper Patrick Scales is onto the injured reserve list, which will require him to miss the first four games of the year. Former Lions, Notre Dame, and Downers Grove South long snapper Scott Daly will fill the role this weekend, although he’ll need to be activated from the practice squad to make it happen.
- We’ll get the first injury report of the week on Wednesday, but all of Ryan Bates, Jaquan Brisker, and Kevin Byard III are on the 53-man and not on the IR.
News/injuries/moves/speculation:
- Albert Breer reports that the Bears did get far enough into the Matthew Judon negotiations to discuss potential contract extensions,
- Jacob Martin and Larry Borom, depth for the defensive and offensive line, respectively, will miss at least the first four games of the year after being placed on the short-term IR alongside Scales.
- Dante Pettis is on the season-ending IR.
Hopefuls and Role Players
We’ve talked already about the Bulls’ Holdovers and Young Core, the two most prominent groups within the roster. Today, we’re onto the Role Players and the Hopefuls.
The Role Players:
- Torrey Craig (33 years old, signed through spring 2025)
- Jevon Carter (28 years old, signed through spring 2025 or 2026)
- Chris Duarte (27 years old, RFA after this year)
We don’t know exactly what role these three will play, but at least right now, it’s forecasted as a short-term position. The Holdovers are the biggest names. The Young Core is the prominent group with which the Bulls are trying to build. These guys? They’re filling in gaps. Their purpose is to be competent NBA players, not to become good ones.
Craig and Carter got a lot of run last year, and we’d expect them to reprise fairly similar roles this season as well. Duarte, acquired in the DeMar DeRozan deal, is more of an unknown, but he contributed last season in San Antonio and knows his way around a basketball court. I’m sure we’ll see some of him, and we might see quite a lot.
The Hopefuls:
- Dalen Terry (22 years old)
- Julian Phillips (20 years old)
- Onuralp Bitim (25 years old)
- Kenneth Lofton Jr. (22 years old)
- Marcus Domask (24 years old)
- Adama Sanogo (22 years old)
- D.J. Steward (22 years old)
Terry and Phillips are both on the Bulls’ roster, while Sanogo and Steward are on two-way deals. One roster spot and one two-way spot are still up for grabs, with both Lofton and Domask on Exhibit 10 contracts which could be converted to just such a deal. The impression, then, is that the Bulls will cut either Bitim, Lofton, or Domask, and that if Bitim doesn’t get the 15th roster spot, he’ll be the odd man out. That’s a slight oversimplification, but it’s good enough for now.
Why did we include Terry and Phillips on this list? They’re not as assuredly in the Bulls’ medium-term plans. Terry’s spent time in the G League each of his first two seasons, and Phillips spent time with Windy City last year as well. They’re safer for now than any of the rest, but they’re still part of this pack, even as they lead it.
Among the whole group, the theme is no-downside excitement. Lofton is exciting in a different sense from the rest—he’s electric and is just a little physically overmatched against first and often second-string NBA lineups—but the broader idea with all seven is that they’re still getting their American professional careers off the ground, and in a dream world, the Bulls will find something special with one of them. Terry is the only one who can really go down as a disappointment. The others are no-lose propositions.
Blackhawks: December and January
We looked at the October schedule. We looked at November’s. Now, the beginning of winter:
- Sunday, December 1st: Blackhawks vs. Columbus
- Monday, December 2nd: Blackhawks at Toronto
- Wednesday, December 4th: Blackhawks vs. Boston
- Saturday, December 7th: Blackhawks vs. Winnipeg
- Monday, December 9th: Blackhawks at New York Rangers
- Thursday, December 12th: Blackhawks at New York Islanders
- Saturday, December 14th: Blackhawks at New Jersey
- Sunday, December 15th: Blackhawks vs. New York Islanders
- Tuesday, December 17th: Blackhawks vs. Washington
- Thursday, December 19th: Blackhawks vs. Seattle
- Saturday, December 21st: Blackhawks at Calgary
- Monday, December 23rd: Blackhawks at Minnesota
- Friday, December 27th: Blackhawks at Buffalo
- Sunday, December 29th: Blackhawks vs. Dallas
- Tuesday, December 31st: Blackhawks vs. St. Louis
December is a busy month, but it’s not a particularly competitive month. Ten of the fifteen games come against teams currently 16th or worse in Stanley Cup odds (there’s a natural cutoff at that point).
It’s easy to see the good case for December for the Hawks: They come out of the gate fine, they’re putting things together, and then they play well during the New York Christmastime trip before making some hay against a mediocre stretch of competition. We get to the Winter Classic starting to feel a little playoff excitement.
It’s not likely. The Blackhaws are far further back than 16th in the Stanley Cup odds themselves, and for good reason. But December’s a month where things open up a little after a tough October and November. By the end of it, almost at the season’s halfway point, we should have a really good idea of where the franchise is in the rebuild process.
News/injuries/moves/speculation:
- Laurent Brossoit had minor knee surgery on his meniscus last week. He should be back early in the season if he isn’t ready on Opening Night.
“Angel Reese Sets WNBA Single-Season Rebounding Record in Loss”
Tungsten Arm O’Doyle, you have company.
The Sky lost their sixth straight yesterday, somehow coming out of the day still in playoff position. Angel Reese grabbed her 405th rebound of the year, setting the single-season record with eight games still to play.
The one that hurt worse for the Sky was Friday’s, where Caitlin Clark scored 31 en route to a 100–81 victory for the Indiana Fever. The Sky are in the middle of the WNBA in scoring defense. This was the first time they allowed 100 points this year.
This week, they’ve got the Aces (who are good) in Las Vegas. The Dream, with whom the Sky are primarily competing for that final playoff spot, visit the Phoenix Mercury, who aren’t as good as the Aces.
Game:
- Tuesday, 9:00 PM CDT: Sky at Las Vegas (NBA TV/The U/TSN)
