I’m not sure I can remember a trade deadline situation like that of Garrett Crochet.
Crochet, the best pitcher in baseball this year by fWAR, had never started a game at the MLB level before this season. He was a career reliever, and Tommy John surgery in April of 2022 delayed his 2023 debut, leading him to ultimately make only thirteen appearances last year for the big league team. Over his career, he’s thrown a minuscule 184.1 major league innings.
Crochet was a good prospect but not a great one. A lot of this was that he was projected to remain a reliever, having pitched mainly in relief in college and coming to the pros accompanied by expectations of command problems. Relievers are inconsistent and uncertain beasts. They gain disproportionate value through high-leverage situations, but it’s hard to be a top prospect as a relief pitcher. Anyway, if Crochet had been a top-five prospect, a player of his own stats but Paul Skenes’s pedigree, the White Sox would not be considering trading him. Instead, the Sox are looking at this unicorn, this highly uncertain but potentially invaluable asset, and listening to offers. This is unusual, but this is not what’s weird.
Where this gets weird is that Crochet is reportedly not interested in returning to the bullpen and not interested in pitching into October unless he gets a contract extension beforehand. Crochet is reportedly making some implied demands of whoever trades for him, and implying a holdout threat in the process.
It’s not out of line for a player to want to protect his value. Baseball is a business, and that cuts in every direction, with little agency for players like Crochet to change their lot. Major League Baseball is a monopoly, and the MLBPA is led by established veterans, not pre-arbitration players to whom those veterans would lose money in a free-market system. Crochet is so young that he’s not going to reach free agency until November of 2026. Making two percent of what Max Scherzer makes, he doesn’t want to risk injury before hitting his payday.
A playoff holdout, though, would be very, very unusual.
I can’t really blame Crochet, but at the same time, the situation feels dumb, and I’m worried his agent is misplaying this hand. What Crochet’s braintrust is implying, if these reports are true, is that Crochet’s health is so uncertain that they fear his arm won’t survive October. If that’s the case, it’s hard to believe they have much confidence in his health next season, which in turn implies whoever rosters Crochet should not expect this performance again next year. In terms of a trade return, this is fine for Crochet. Which prospects the White Sox get for him is the White Sox’ problem, not his. But it doesn’t help Crochet’s extension chances with his new team if he and his agents are saying 1) to not trust his health and 2) that he doesn’t like baseball enough to risk his health for a shot at a World Series. I understand the desire for an extension. I understand the fear of injury. I just can’t believe it’s worth it after decimating his value with this kind of report.
Maybe this isn’t coming from Crochet’s camp. I can’t imagine it’d be easy for Crochet to come out and say, in a White Sox uniform, “No, no, I really want to be traded.” But the appearance right now is that Crochet’s people want everyone to know that he is not a reliable asset, and that simultaneously, he’s unwilling to work without a significant long-term financial commitment.
The White Sox’ weekend:
- Friday, 7:10 PM CDT: White Sox vs. Seattle (NBC Sports Chicago)
- Saturday, 6:15 PM CDT: White Sox vs. Seattle (NBC Sports Chicago)
- Sunday, 1:10 PM CDT: White Sox vs. Seattle (NBC Sports Chicago)
Erick Fedde is scheduled to pitch tomorrow night. Crochet is scheduled to pitch on Sunday.
Would the Cubs Really Trade Seiya Suzuki?
Moving to our usual main topic: The mediocre Cubs.
If you were to line notable Cubs up in order from likeliest to least likely to be traded, the order would seem to go something like this: Taillon, Tauchman, Hoerner, Suzuki, Bellinger, Steele, Happ. How do I define notable? Arbitrarily. A number of bullpen arms could move; bench players could move; even Kyle Hendricks could move. But aside from the emotional aspect of a Hendricks trade, none of those would move the needle.
My impression is that Taillon is going to move so long as someone offers a fair return. The interest is there and the Cubs would be selling high. Tauchman isn’t guaranteed to go, but he’s a solid role-playing veteran who does a variety of things reliably, and he’s available at a very affordable price. We talked about Hoerner on Monday. Boy, do I hope he stays, or that the Cubs get an earthshaking haul. Bellinger might be healthy again, but fears of him opting into his contract have replaced fears of him opting out of his contract, which is a bad side to occupy. Steele seems more valuable to the Cubs than he’d be to a lot of other teams over the long run, but for reasons mentioned in today’s notes, it’s not unfathomable that he could move. He’s old for a player at his point in the arbitration process, which makes him a shorter-term asset than he otherwise appears. Lastly, Happ has shown no indication he might be willing to waive his no-trade clause. Teams will understandably want him, but Happ will understandably not want them.
That leaves Suzuki, right there in the middle. His name came up in rumors more often a few weeks ago than it has recently, but the correlation between rumor mentions and trade probability is weak. Would the Cubs trade him?
Suzuki plays on a team-friendly deal relative to the production he provides. A lot of the cost associated with him had to do with his posting fee, which the Cubs paid to the Hiroshima Carp when they first signed him. He’s 29 for a few more weeks, giving him another season before he should be expected to begin to age. His health has been spotty but not bad. He’s roughly a 3.0-WAR outfielder, and he should be an average of a 2.5-WAR outfielder over the remainder of his contract, which runs through 2026. That’s a good asset.
Still, he’s likely more valuable to the Cubs than he is to someone else. By all appearances and some reports, the Cubs aspire to be a primary destination for Japanese imports, and that well is not drying up. If the Cubs think Suzuki’s presence helps them to that end, he has value beyond the three wins he provides over a replacement-level player DH-ing and playing right field. If they think his presence doesn’t help? Then we need to ask a lot more questions about why they fired Suzuki’s interpreter last week.
The continuity of that Japanese interest depends in part on Jed Hoyer’s job security, but at this point, the Cubs are far enough down that the logical response to Hoyer fearing for his job is a well-executed selling deadline rather than a Hail Mary buying deadline. Unless the Cubs sweep the Royals while the Padres, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, and Pirates are all swept this weekend (this is impossible; the Pirates play the Diamondbacks), the Cubs are obvious sellers. The Hail Mary ship has sailed. Absent a direct conditional offer (i.e., “We’ll keep you if you make these playoffs”), Hoyer’s interests no longer diverge from what’s best for the team. The sale is on, and it’s a question of who will go. The Cubs would be justified in keeping every player on that list above, with all of them likely under contract next year. But more likely than not, Taillon’s going to move, and for good reason, and I’d guess it’s more likely than not that someone grabs Tauchman as well. The question marks begin with Hoerner, and they continue down to Steele. Suzuki is in that mix. Logic would indicate it would take an aggressive offer to pry him away.
News/Injuries/Moves/Speculation:
- Alexander Canario was carted off the field at Triple-A. I haven’t seen an update yet.
- Julian Merryweather returned from the IL (apologies if we mentioned that on Monday), striking out two while allowing two hits on Tuesday. If they can trade him, they should trade him. There are no relief pitchers in this world who shouldn’t be traded for a decent price.
- Tomás Nido landed on the IL with a knee sprain, resulting in the activation of Christian Bethancourt from Triple-A. Ben Brown is onto the 60-day IL to make space on the 40-man.
Games:
- Friday, 7:10 PM CDT: Cubs at Kansas City (Marquee)
- Saturday, 6:10 PM CDT: Cubs at Kansas City (Marquee)
- Sunday, 1:10 PM CDT: Cubs at Kansas City (Marquee)
Hendricks is on the mound tonight against Brady Singer. Shōta Imanaga takes the mound tomorrow against Seth Lugo. Javier Assad tries again on Sunday against Cole Ragans. If you want to know what moneyball really looks like, look at these 2024 Royals. They found undervalued assets, and now they’re in the playoff mix.
Can Matt Eberflus’s Haircut Win a Super Bowl??
Chicago is the new center of the NFL universe. Training camp tickets sold out for the first time, just two minutes after they became available. The team president is gunning for a new stadium to match his lofty vision for the charter club that has been stuck in the past, rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has vowed to end the decades-long championship drought, “Hard Knocks” cameras are rolling, and Eberflus finally projects the part.
I wouldn’t go so far as to say that we’re anti-Eberflus around here. He might prove to be a solid coach, and some of the adaptability described in the article really is promising. (The interesting nugget is that Eberflus sought out external help in preparing for media appearances following that weird Justin Fields presser before Week 9.) But paragraphs like this one are a reach, and they kind of emblemize what this offseason has been for the Bears: An exercise not unlike those of an Instagram influencer, one who projects perfection in front of an uncertain internal state.
Sure, fans are excited, but can the team win in the trenches? Yes, the Bears are pretending to try to build a lakefront stadium, but how’s the team going to do in the trenches? Agreed, Caleb Williams won a Heisman Trophy two years ago and only has one significant issue with his game, but given that issue is holding the ball too long, how do we think the Bears are going to do in the trenches?
I’m not specifying the trenches because of some meathead sentiment that football teams need to be able to run the ball and stop the run (although there’s some truth to that idea, especially playing half every season at Soldier Field). I’m specifying them because that’s where the Bears’ question marks lie, and for all the talk about offensive line depth, experience is not the same as excellence. The Bears have great pieces in the passing game. Congratulations. Will Williams get the ball out on time? The Bears have a strong secondary. Good for them. Will the front seven slow down Jahmyr Gibbs?
It’s not that the Bears will necessarily be bad. They shouldn’t be great, but the “one year away” thing really might hold true, especially if the more uncertain pieces up front do stay healthy and do perform. The issue here is that if you were designing an offseason to cater to dumb Gen Z football fans, you’d load up at wide receiver, draft a quarterback with a phenomenal marketing department, invite Hard Knocks in, and give your coach a makeover. The hype is so clearly overly focused on the veneer. Brandon Marshall didn’t keep Jay Cutler from getting the shit kicked out of him.
The Sky Are Spending
The Sky, in partnership with the Village of Bedford Park, are building a $38 million practice facility down by Midway Airport. For some perspective: The Sky were recently valued by Sportico at $95M. This would be like the Bears building a $2.5 billion practice facility (the proposed new stadium is tagged with a $4.6 billion cost, but it’s a stadium).
It’s unclear how much money the Sky are getting from Bedford Park, so it’s hard to know who exactly is betting on what, but it sure seems like a bullish indicator on the WNBA, and among other things, it’s going to make it easier for Sky players to live downtown. I don’t know how much that helps in free agency, but it’s fun!
What Is Happening With Paris Martin?
This is unrelated to the Bulls except that it involves males playing basketball in Chicago, but the Paris Martin saga at Wendell Phillips High School got even stranger this week, and it is very much the NBA offseason right now, so we have time to talk about it.
The short version is that…
- A few weeks ago, coming off a state title in 2A in his second year at Phillips, head coach Paris Martin sued Chicago Public Schools, alleging CPS refused to complete his background check and wouldn’t pay him his stipend. He added that he and his assistants bought players warmups and shoes themselves, and that he paid for players’ meals on the trip downstate.
- On Tuesday, Martin received an email from Phillips telling him to turn in his keys.
I’m unaware of CPS denying any allegations so far, although the legal process has yet to play out. It would seem, though, that at a minimum CPS was allowing a man to coach without completing the background check process. That alone is indefensible. Forcing a coach to coach for free inside a brand-new gym is also, of course, quite weird. The stipend was $7,500 annually. What a CPS story.
**
In actual Bulls news, they waived Andrew Funk, opening up their final two-way spot. Funk was a good shooter in college, but there are a lot of those.
Was Stan Bowman a Good GM?
Stan Bowman’s back in the NHL, hired by the Oilers. This is most notable because of Bowman’s role in the Brad Aldrich scandal, where opinions differ as to how significant of a suspension was appropriate for Bowman.
Opinions also differ on just how good a GM Bowman was in Chicago. He was at the helm for all three Stanley Cups of the Kane/Toews era, but he was merely the GM, working under John McDonough, and his ascent to that position came under strange circumstances in the summer of 2009,* after McDonough and Dale Tallon assembled the first Cup-winning roster. After the third Stanley Cup, the Blackhawks made the playoff twice in four years before Bowman resigned in off-ice disgrace.
I’m not qualified to determine what was Bowman and what was Tallon and what was McDonough and what was various players and coaches. I do think, though, that the fact we can even have the debate is telling. We don’t know. With industries changing over time, we might never know. Whether Bowman succeeds or fails in Edmonton, it’ll only be a clue as to what his aptitude was ten years earlier. It won’t give us the final answer.
*The Blackhawks botched the restricted free agency deadline, leading to Tallon’s demotion but not firing.
