Now that the Guardians series is mercifully over, the Cubs get to face the easiest schedule in baseball over the rest of the season. To be fair, that was the case even before the trip to Cleveland. But now, the gap is even bigger.
To put some numbers on this: FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds gives the Cubs’ remaining schedule a .478 win percentage, which means* an average team would be expected to go .522 against these opponents at these locations. The next-closest is the Tigers, at .483. Beyond that, it jumps all the way to .488 for the Rangers. Over the course of a season, the difference between .478 and even .488 on a strength of schedule ranking would be more than a win and a half. In a sport where playoff races often come down to single games, that’s a lot. It’s also…only a win and a half. The difference between .478 and .500 is only three and a half wins. That’s over 162 games. Over 40 games, the difference is less than one game.
We’ve talked a good amount about this upcoming stretch of weak opponents. So have others. I’m afraid, though, that at this point the discussion is overhyped. Yes, the Cubs have an opportunity here. But they had an opportunity in Cleveland too. The difference between the Guardians and the Blue Jays is meaningful and real. But it’s not so real as to be a difference-maker in and of itself. It will be easier for the Cubs to get hot these next six weeks. That doesn’t make it a given.
Since we’re here, though, entering a stretch of 18 straight games against teams tied with or trailing Chicago’s National League club, some benchmarks. Here’s what a quick 1,000 simulations look like, using the FanGraphs game-by-game probabilities. This assumes all games are independent events and there aren’t any pitching matchup surprises:
| Wins | Cumulative Probability |
| 18 | 0.0% |
| 17 | 0.0% |
| 16 | 0.3% |
| 15 | 1.1% |
| 14 | 2.8% |
| 13 | 6.6% |
| 12 | 15.6% |
| 11 | 29.4% |
| 10 | 49.0% |
| 9 | 67.2% |
| 8 | 83.1% |
| 7 | 93.4% |
| 6 | 97.2% |
| 5 | 99.1% |
| 4 | 99.7% |
| 3 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 100.0% |
| 1 | 100.0% |
| 0 | 100.0% |
What does this mean? There’s a 1.1% chance the Cubs go 15–3 or better over these next 18. There’s a 99.7% chance the Cubs go 4–14 or better. The median outcome is 9–9, though 10–8 is likelier than 8–10. Again, though: The median outcome is 9–9.
What can we make of this? Well, given that FanGraphs system gives the Cubs a 3.0% chance right now of eventually making the playoffs, we can generally estimate that the Cubs will have a solid playoff shot if they go 13–5 or better over this stretch. It’s not all up to the Cubs—how the Braves, Brewers, and other teams play will also matter a great deal—but we can safely assume that the majority of those 3.0% of scenarios which end with the Cubs in the playoffs come from the 6.6% sample in which the Cubs go at least 13–5 over the next 18. Similarly, 9–9 will probably leave the Cubs with even worse than a three percent chance. The median lands at 9–9, but it lands closer to 10–8 than 8–10.
If that’s too much time spent on statistics, we get it. The bottom line is something you already know: If the Cubs want to make something of this last month and a half, they need to win a lot of games these next three weeks.
Games:
- Friday, 1:20 PM CDT: Cubs vs. Toronto (Apple TV+)
- Saturday, 1:20 PM CDT: Cubs vs. Toronto (Marquee)
- Sunday, 1:20 PM CDT: Cubs vs. Toronto (Marquee)
The Blue Jays are suffering a miserable year, but they just swept the Angels and Vlad Guerrero Jr. is on fire. Yariel Rodríguez, who starts today opposite Kyle Hendricks, has exceeded all expectations as a rotation sub. Chris Bassitt, who goes tomorrow against Justin Steele, is generally a dependable veteran. Bowden Francis, the swingman pitching Sunday’s finale against Shōta Imanaga, is someone the Cubs should hit, but the point of all of this is that it’s easier said than done. A sweep would be so, so nice. But the real hope is a series win, and that’s far from guaranteed.
News/moves/injuries/speculation:
- Ryne Sandberg is cancer-free, per his own announcement yesterday on Instagram. Awesome, awesome news.
*Unless I really misunderstand the FanGraphs model, in which case it doesn’t mean this but it still means something similar.
The White Sox Are Still Losing
It’s been a good seven games for the White Sox. They broke their losing streak. They stomped the Yankees on Monday night. They went 2–5.
Things are definitely better with the Sox. But things are still bad. The way we’ve generally described the team’s struggles this year is as a two-part problem.
The first issue was cultural. Focus was poor. Morale was low. Mistakes were many. It’s hard to tell how much the house-cleaning has helped with that. Only five of these games have come since everyone was relieved of Pedro Grifol’s duties. Theoretically, this issue should improve, but that gets us to the second issue, which is fundamental: The team is really bad. The roster itself is really, really bad. The guy who should be the White Sox’ best player is batting an even .200, and not in one of those Kyle Schwarber ways where the results are better than that particular number. The guy who is the White Sox’ best player hasn’t finished a fifth inning in a month and a half. Some of this is by choice, the Sox trying to limit his workload, but the effect on the team’s ability to win games is the same, and last Friday, the results within the short outing got really, really bad.
The schedule will get more manageable after this weekend. A Yankees/Astros week is tough. But finishing with fewer than 40 wins is still very much in play, and with the most obnoxious problem removed, the problem which remains is the harder one to solve.
Games:
- Friday, 7:10 PM CDT: White Sox at Houston (NBC Sports Chicago)
- Saturday, 6:10 PM CDT: White Sox at Houston (NBC Sports Chicago)
- Sunday, 1:10 PM CDT: White Sox at Houston (NBC Sports Chicago)
Garrett Crochet pitches tonight against Spencer Arrighetti. Tomorrow, Chris Flexen opposes Hunter Brown. Sunday, it’s Ky Bush against Framber Valdez. Tonight should be the Sox’ best chance at a win, and they’re worse than a 2-to-1 underdog in the markets. Winning one game is the likeliest outcome, but if they lose tonight, the likeliest outcome becomes a full sweep.
News/moves/injuries/speculation:
- Dominic Leone left the game Wednesday with elbow soreness and is now headed back to the IL, with Matt Foster expected to be added to the roster in his place. Foster underwent Tommy John surgery at the beginning of the 2023 season. This would be his first time back in the majors since then.
(An earlier version of this post missed the Leone news.)
The Bears Held a Joint Practice with the Bengals
We’re at the stage of training camp where there isn’t very much news. This is generally a good thing, where applicable. The only news that comes out around this time of camp is usually holdout-related or someone getting hurt badly enough that it doesn’t disadvantage the team to disclose all the details. So, while Caleb Williams made plays both good and bad against the Bengals’ defense in the joint practice, you’re probably best off resisting the temptation to make anything of the reports. Preseason games aren’t that meaningful. Preseason practices aren’t as meaningful as preseason games.
The one newsworthy development this week was Nate Davis returning to practice. In the meantime, Ryan Bates is now “week to week” with an injury of his own. The Bears’ offensive line might not be bad. Darnell Wright and Braxton Jones could be a strong pair of tackles. Teven Jenkins is a good guard. Bates, Davis, and Coleman Shelton are all adequate. But the downside each of those three present only grows when you get past them, so having even one of the three not healthy gets you into the limited portion of the Bears’ roster. It’s easy to make too much of training camp. It’s even easier to make too little of a rookie quarterback’s offensive line.
This weekend:
- Saturday, 12:00 PM CDT: Bears vs. Cincinnati (NFL Network)
The starters will play some, but we don’t know how much. This probably means it won’t be that much.
The Sky Are Back (But the Sky Aren’t Back)
WNBA play resumed last night, and it didn’t go well for the Sky. A 20-point loss to Phoenix, with old friend and new gold medalist Kahleah Copper dropping 29 on just 19 field goal attempts. The Sky are still two and a half games up on Atlanta for the final playoff spot, and maybe seeding doesn’t matter that much with the top five teams seemingly separating themselves from the rest of the league. But it wasn’t a great return.
This weekend:
- Saturday, 4:00 PM CDT: Sky at Los Angeles (TV unclear)
- Sunday, 8:00 PM CDT: Sky at Phoenix (Marquee)
The Sparks are one of the teams chasing the Sky. The Mercury lead the Fever and Sky in that pack in the middle of the league.
Kenneth Lofton Jr. Is a Bull
To our NIT-fan readers: Rejoice! Louisiana Tech star and noted vibe king Kenneth Lofton Jr. signed with the Bulls this week. It’s not guaranteed, but he’ll have the chance to earn a spot on the roster.
The thing about these Bulls is that they could be a really fun bad team or a terribly not fun bad team. It all depends on how far away they can keep Zach LaVine. Lofton is, as they say, a blast and a half. He also resembles a bull, visually and stylistically. Give us Kenny and Benny, Bulls. Give us Kenny and Benny.
This Is Not a Serious Suggestion
On New Year’s Eve, Wrigley Field will host the Winter Classic between the Blackhawks and the St. Louis Blues. Three days later, the Big Ten will start a weekend featuring four hockey games involving Penn State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and the Badger and Buckeye women’s teams. It’s wonderfully fun, the best way to design the post-Christmas days in Chicago. At the same time, it’s impressive. The NHL has gotten very good at maintaining outdoor ice rinks. To the degree that one wonders…could they do this for a longer stretch of time?
This wouldn’t be a good fit for the Blackhawks. The United Center is too good an environment. But for someone like the Sabres, whose attendance has waned as their play has stagnated in the cellar, what might an extended stretch of outdoor hockey look like? From a publicity standpoint, it’s a gimmick. From a competitive standpoint, it’s also a gimmick, but maybe a helpful one? Given how streaky a sport hockey is, it strikes me as mental enough that if you convinced a bad hockey team it liked playing in the cold, you might make a lot of opponents miserable. There also has to be some strategic difference in outdoor games, right? Some advantage to being used to the outdoors? The Sabres play ten home games in January and February. If the Bills don’t end up needing their stadium…
