Yesterday was a good day for the Chicago Cubs. They came back from an early deficit, put up crooked numbers, and didn’t let the Phillies back into the game. They scored ten runs for the first time since April. Jameson Taillon stayed sharp, Ian Happ made a memory, and the Cubs avoided a sweep yet again, remaining unswept in series of three or more games this season, even playing the best team by record in Major League Baseball.
That last piece—avoiding a sweep, yet again—is a papercut of a consolation prize. We wrote about this a few weeks ago, calling the Cubs maddeningly consistent. They’ve kept it up in the days since. Since the problems started, back in the middle of May, the Cubs are 16–31, winning nearly exactly one out of every three games. 27 of those 47 games have come as part of a three-game series. Nine three-game series, then. In those nine? They’ve lost eight of them, each by a mark of two games to one.
It is very hard to sweep these Cubs. It is also very hard for them to win a series.
If you’re a path-mapper, like we tend to be here at The Barking Crow, a general way to chart an MLB team’s comeback course is to look at what would happen if the team started winning and splitting series. Go 1–1 in your two-game sets, 2–1 in your three-game sets, and 2–2 in your four-game sets, and you’ll make up ground. There’s a little bit of evidence teams do approach baseball this way, consciously or unconsciously, and it can help strike the balance between urgency and delusion. Ask a team to go 16–9 in July, and the early games won’t feel as crucial as they are towards that aim. Ask a team to win seven straight games, and you will quickly be disappointed.
We do this, publicly and privately. We cheer for series wins, rarely lament failures to sweep, and look ahead in bits and pieces. Consequently, we have bad news.
The Cubs probably need to sweep the Angels this weekend if they are to have any chance of making the playoffs.
It’s possible to make the playoffs after selling at the trade deadline. It doesn’t happen often, though. Seasons pivot after decisions to buy, sell, or hold. Focuses shift from competition to development. Injuries are handled differently. The on-paper and on-field impact of trade deadline moves is often small, with the signal sent from the front office to the clubhouse arguably of equal consequence for teams around the playoff bubble. If the Cubs don’t buy at the end of July, or at least hold, it is fair to call the season over.
In what scenarios will the Cubs buy or hold? There are two factors: First, their record, and second, the records of those around them. At the moment, the Cubs are eight games under .500. They’re also, as Cubs fans know too well, sitting in 13th place in the National League, six games out of playoff position. They need to get back to .500, but they also need to pass teams, and they need to close that six-game gap.
Thankfully, nine of the 14 other NL teams currently sport a losing record. For three of them, it’s only by one or two games, but given how often teams within this mix will play one another, the likeliest outcome over the next three and a half weeks is that only seven NL teams go into the trade deadline with a winning record, and that the sixth-place team—the team holding that final playoff spot—is only a handful of games above the break-even mark. It could go differently, but in most cases, if the Cubs can win enough games these next few weeks to get above .500, the playoff position piece of the equation will work itself out. If the Cubs enter the trade deadline above .500, they should be in seventh or eighth place against a six-team playoff format, and they should be within roughly three or four games of the Padres, Cardinals, or whoever that sixth-place team is.
How do the Cubs get above .500? At 40–48 right now, with 20 games scheduled between now and 5:00 PM CDT on July 30th, the Cubs must go 15–5, barring postponements. The last of those twenty games is the July 29th series opener in Cincinnati, so for the purpose of condensing this by series, we’re going to call it 14–5 over 19 games. That’s a 119-win pace over three and half weeks, and it’s more than winning every series. The Cubs play six opponents in this timeframe. They need to sweep at least one of them.
Enter: The Anaheim Angels. (I know; they’re the LA Angels; but our style guide respects Los Angeles.)
By wins and losses, the Angels are the fifth-worst team in baseball so far this year. By run differential, the Angels are the fifth-worst team in baseball so far this year. By BaseRuns, the Angels are the eighth-worst team in baseball so far this year. By on-paper talent, the Angels should be the sixth-worst team in baseball over the rest of this year. That on-paper talent accounts for the eventual return of Mike Trout. Mike Trout will not play for the Angels this weekend.
After this weekend, the Cubs’ pre-deadline schedule goes:
- at Baltimore – 3 games
- at St. Louis – 4 games
- vs. Arizona – 3 games
- vs. Milwaukee – 3 games
- at Kansas City – 3 games
- at Cincinnati – 1 game
Again, we’re not worrying about the Reds game for this analysis. We’re guessing the buy/sell/hold decision won’t hinge on that outcome anyway. More importantly, there’s plenty to worry about with those other five teams. One is among the best teams in baseball. Another is a division leader. A third is the current playoff-positioned team the Cubs stand the best chance of catching. The Royals are the worst of the five on paper, but they’re currently in playoff position, and that means something. The Diamondbacks are the worst of the five by record, but they made the World Series last fall and are even better on paper than the Cardinals. These would be five tough series for any team. They’re especially tough for a team that’s played as badly and is as mediocre on paper as the Chicago Cubs.
Enter: The Anaheim Angels.
Adding to the advantage of the Angels simply being bad, all three of these games will be played at 11:20 AM Pacific Time, with the first coming immediately following a flight in from Oakland. Adding to that advantage, Luis Rengifo—arguably the Angels’ best active player—is out of the lineup again today after feeling pain in his wrist on Wednesday. Adding to that one, the Angels haven’t scored a run since Tuesday.
Sweep this series, and the road will still be tough. The Cubs will still need to average only one loss per opponent over the next three weeks. Do anything short of sweeping the series, though, and the path will look legitimately insurmountable. At no point last season prior to the end of September did the Cubs face playoff odds on FanGraphs longer than 6.0%. They’re at 6.0% this morning.
Games:
- Friday, 1:20 PM CDT: Cubs vs. Anaheim (Marquee/MLB Network)
- Saturday, 1:20 PM CDT: Cubs vs. Anaheim (Marquee)
- Sunday, 1:20 PM CDT: Cubs vs. Anaheim (Marquee)
Justin Steele faces Griffin Canning today, and that’s a mismatch. Kyle Hendricks faces Tyler Anderson tomorrow, and that looks grim based on results so far, but Hendricks was the better pitcher in June and both Anderson’s FIP and xERA point in a bad direction. José Soriano is quietly competent, making Sunday a tricky game with Hayden Wesneski on the hill. Thankfully, Monday’s a travel day. The Cubs can spend all the bullpen they need to. Hopefully, though, Steele and Hendricks can eat 13 innings or so, combined. It would help a lot if the offense made it easy.
Moves/Injuries/News/Speculation:
- In scoreboard-watching, the eight reach-able teams (i.e., NL teams ahead of the Cubs not named Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, or Atlanta) mostly play one another this weekend. The Cardinals are in Washington. The Padres host Arizona. The Mets visit the Pirates. Only the Reds (vs. Detroit) and Giants (at Cleveland) are playing teams out of that mix. This creates a weird situation where even if the Cubs sweep the Angels, it’s probably bad news if they’re in a better spot than 13th come Monday. We’d rather the Nats take two of three from the Cardinals while the Pirates turn the Mets’ momentum around.
- Vinny Nittoli ended up landing with the Orioles’ system after clearing waivers.
Did Luis Robert Jr. Hurt His Trade Value?
I’m curious how other front offices view the White Sox’ internal dysfunction. The latest infamy belongs to Luis Robert Jr., who declined to try to throw out the winning run in Tuesday’s loss to the Guardians. Robert should be the Sox’ biggest deadline name, with a more proven track record and less injury risk than Garrett Crochet by virtue of not being a pitcher.
We know the White Sox don’t have a healthy clubhouse. We can see that much on the field. We don’t have reason to believe it’s as bad as last year’s, which ex-Sox have described as the worst culture they ever experienced, but this is not a team playing with a whole lot of commitment.
The question, then, is whether opposing general managers view White Sox players as victims or perpetrators of theses issues. Do they say, “Wow, imagine Luis Robert Jr. if we could get him around our guys?” Or do they say, “Whoa, I’m not sure we want Luis Robert Jr. around our guys?”
My guess is that it depends how clubhouse-conscious teams are, and how big of risks they want to take. The Cardinals might be willing to accept more dysfunction risk than the Dodgers, as well they should given their place in the standings and their roster construction. The Phillies might have more confidence in their clubhouse’s ability to make other players buy in than a team like the Yankees.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if players’ present over/underperformance serves as a more meaningful indicator in this case than it otherwise does. Robert Jr.’s played a little worse than expectations. Crochet is outperforming every reasonable prediction. Even accounting for some expected regression, I wonder if Crochet’s ability to compete through the noise will make him more desirable than he’d otherwise be.
Games:
- Friday, 6:10 PM CDT: White Sox at Miami (NBC Sports Chicago)
- Saturday, 3:10 PM CDT: White Sox at Miami (NBC Sports Chicago)
- Sunday, 12:40 PM CDT: White Sox at Miami (NBC Sports Chicago)
Crochet pitches tomorrow.
Moves/Injuries/News/Speculation:
- Duke Ellis, a fascinating little subplot to this White Sox season, is on to the Mariners. Seattle claimed him when the Mets put him through waivers.
Angel Reese Made the All-Star Team
Angel Reese received more all-star votes than all but four WNBA players, outpaced by only Breanna Stewart, A’ja Wilson, Aliyah Boston, and Caitlin Clark. That’s in reverse order. Clark received almost twice as many votes as Reese.
The nature of Reese’s popularity gets questioned a lot, to an unfair extent. She’s more than just Clark’s foil. Still, it’s at least part of the story, right?
The game isn’t for another two weeks, but Clark and Reese will be teammates in it. It’s Team USA vs. Team WNBA, ahead of the Olympics.
Nice win for the Sky on Tuesday. Chennedy Carter had the big game, and Diamond DeShields might have had her best game of the year. Reese turned in another double-double, and 14 of the rebounds were defensive, so it wasn’t close to all being her own missed shots.
Games:
- Friday, 9:00 PM CDT: Sky at Seattle (ION)
- Sunday, 5:00 PM CDT: Sky at Seattle (Marquee, and maybe Prime Video?)
Seattle’s won four straight and sits in fourth place in the league. They’re one of the five good teams.
Zach LaVine: Good Guy?
Rich Paul spoke out forcefully this week against criticism levied towards his client, Zach LaVine, and…I don’t think he’s wrong. Aside from that one weird declined postgame interview, it’s hard to point at anything bad LaVine has done. As an only offense, that’s pretty weak. It’s not LaVine’s fault the Bulls overpaid him, and how LaVine handles himself is fairly in line with the rest of the NBA.
That said, I don’t think fans are wrong in their perceptions that LaVine doesn’t play as hard as he could and doesn’t particularly care about defense. Again, he’s not outside the norm, but the norm has shifted further than most fans would prefer in today’s NBA. Zach LaVine isn’t doing anything other than being who he is. But who he is isn’t a particularly likable NBA player, especially in a setting where he needed to be a leader. He’s a poor man’s Karl-Anthony Towns.
Other developments:
- There don’t seem to be a lot of markets for DeMar DeRozan. Marc J. Spears mentioned the Kings as a possibility, but almost every other team mentioned as a possible landing place doesn’t have the cap space to give DeRozan a market-value contract. He hit free agency at a very bad time.
- Adama Sanogo is sticking around, signing another two-way contract.
Levshunov to Rockford?
Artyom Levshunov may or may not stay in college for another season. If he goes pro this fall, Mark Eaton indicated this week that he’d start the season with the IceHogs. Not a big surprise, but confirmation of what had been suspected.
Cooper Rush to the Bears?
The Bears could be in the backup quarterback market as the season gets closer, and one name to watch is Cooper Rush, who’s set to be the underdog in a training camp battle with Trey Lance in Dallas.
Rush—30 years old, respected, proven, and from the Midwest—would be a great fit as a competent but non-threatening backup, especially with the Bears likely to need their backup quarterback to start at least a game or two at some point this fall. Williams’s issue holding the ball too long, if it persists, combines with his slighter stature to make him a little bit of an injury risk, and one would hope the Bears would be cautious with him. Only about a dozen quarterbacks make it through each season starting every week. Some of those get benched, which won’t happen to Williams, but most go down with injury at some point in the year.
