Ian Happ has always occupied an awkward place in the greater Cubs ecosystem. The last big prospect to debut from the early Epstein era, Happ’s greatly exceeded customary expectations for a top-50ish minor league graduate. He has never, however, reached the highs reached by Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, or Javier Báez. He’s never been viewed as one of the best at his position, like Willson Contreras. He didn’t earn himself folk hero status like Kyle Schwarber. He didn’t get the opportunity to draft off his position-mates and start an All-Star Game, like Addison Russell once did. He’s always been good—he was even good before that 2019 demotion, just not as good as the Cubs wanted him to be—but he’s never been the kind of player after whom other teams’ fans salivate. There’s never been a major wave of, “Damn. I wish we had Ian Happ.”
And yet, there was Ian Happ again yesterday, cutting down Santiago Espinal at second base to stop a Reds rally in its tracks, keeping the tying run out of scoring position while giving his starting pitcher a much-needed first out in the seventh inning. It wasn’t even Happ’s biggest contribution to the game. His first-inning bases-clearing double gave that pitcher, Shōta Imanaga, a comfortable head start after two straight frustrating outings. Imanaga is a Cy Young candidate, probably the Rookie of the Year favorite. But it was Happ who played stopper after three straight defeats.
These last three years, only two players have done more for the Cubs in raw production than Ian Happ. Nico Hoerner has been so strong defensively that he boasts 2.1 more fWAR since the start of 2022. Justin Steele still leads Happ by a little less than half a win, using the same metric. It doesn’t always feel that way, possibly because Happ’s performance has—like that of the Cubs as a whole*—been perplexingly poor in higher-leverage situations, but Ian Happ has been one of the best Cubs of this mediocre Cubs era, and he’s likely to pass Báez, Bryant, and Kyle Hendricks this year for the title of most productive Cub since the 2016 World Series. As others often point out, Happ’s never had a below-average season at the plate. He’s been streaky, but season over season, he reliably hits his marks. Ian Happ is a good, solid player.
Why do we say all this? Because of that comment above. “It doesn’t always feel that way.” Happ is not a superstar. His trips to the plate late in close games don’t send inspirational tingles down anybody’s spine. But he comes through in quiet ways, and through an eight-year stretch which has sometimes been maddening, he’s been everything he was ever reasonably asked to be. Today’s is a very different Cubs conversation because of Ian Happ. Thank goodness for that.
*The Cubs rank 29th in FanGraphs’s “Clutch” metric over that 2022–present timeframe, better than only the Twins. This measures the Cubs’ performance in high-leverage situations relative to their average performance. It’s probably a function of luck, but it’s hard not to ponder whether it could be something mental, which makes today’s petty rumor about an enraged Willson Contreras frequently smashing iPads sound even more like the worst Little League parents complaining that other kids on the team are competitive.
Moves:
- On Friday, the Cubs activated both Jordan Wicks and Keegan Thompson from the IL, sending the latter to Iowa while moving the former to the bullpen. Porter Hodge was optioned to Triple-A to make room for Wicks.
News/Rumors/Speculation:
- Nico Hoerner is into IL limbo, which is much less fun than the limbo one plays at parties. He’s got a tiny fracture in his hand where he was hit on Thursday by a pitch. The Cubs should probably suck it up and put him on the Injured List, especially now that he hasn’t played since Friday and could come off it early next week, but they were reticent to do that back when Hoerner and Dansby Swanson were both hurt.
- Seiya Suzuki also missed some time this weekend when his troublesome side tightened up after being hit by a throw while stealing second. He was back in the lineup yesterday as the DH, which is encouraging, and he went 3-for-5 with a double, which is also encouraging.
- There’s a loud Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rumor going around, seemingly the source of a leak by someone in the Cubs’ front office. I’m personally suspicious of the leak—Guerrero doesn’t seem to be on the trading block, at least not yet, and this is red meat for fans—but Guerrero is having his best season at the plate (by both xwOBA and wRC+, our favorite combination for parsing these results) since 2021, when he nearly led the majors in homers and was one of the ten most valuable players in the league. The Cubs have a hole in the middle of their order, innings to yield at first base, and prospect capital to make what would be a 1.5-year move. It would make sense, match their preference for shorter-term commitments, and provide a jolt. Did I mention Guerrero’s only 25? He’s not what it once appeared he could be, but he’s got a lot of prime years left.
- More pertinently out of Toronto, the Blue Jays designated Cavan Biggio for assignment on Friday. Biggio’s a natural second baseman, but he’s played a variety of non-shortstop positions this year, and while his bat hasn’t been good, he’s coming off a league-average season at the plate, with projection systems indicating that’s roughly his true capacity. If Hoerner is going to miss a little time, Biggio would be a better short-term solution than David Bote. Combining that with the continued questions about the corner infield, Biggio’s probably worth a fringe prospect.
Games:
- Tuesday: Cubs @ Tampa Bay, 5:50 PM CDT (Marquee)
- Wednesday: Cubs @ Tampa Bay, 5:50 PM CDT (Marquee)
- Thursday, Cubs @ Tampa Bay, 5:50 PM CDT (Marquee)
Taillon, Assad, and Steele take the mound from the Cubs, which is a solid assortment, especially after Steele pitched well in Cincinnati. The best guess for the Rays seems to go Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Taj Bradley. Eflin is a good pitcher, Civale is better than his ERA, and Bradley was recently a top prospect, although his debut has dimmed things. It is never easy against the Rays. A series win would sure go a long way.
Good Luck, Drew
Fresh off breaking their franchise-record losing streak (honestly, 14 games isn’t as bad as I would have guessed) and splitting a series with the reliably .500 Red Sox (they’re even exactly a .500 team on paper), the White Sox are making a move this week, calling Drew Thorpe up from Double-A Birmingham to start tomorrow against the Mariners. Thorpe, 23, profiles as a pitcher’s pitcher, with unusually low velocity, especially for a right-hander, but strong command and an excellent changeup. FanGraphs had him as a top-75 prospect entering the year. The White Sox acquired him in the Dylan Cease trade after the Padres acquired him in the Juan Soto trade with the Yankees.
It’s a big jump from Double-A to the majors, and it’s odd to rush one of your best prospects, especially when the situation awaiting them appears so dysfunctional. Unless the White Sox’ minor league apparatus is the most destructive in the sport, it’s hard to think of a worse place for a player with a promising future than the current Chicago White Sox clubhouse. Hopefully for Thorpe’s sake, he can pitch through the noise. He’s got a 3.02 FIP over eleven starts this season, third-best among the 28 qualified Southern League starters.
Other moves:
- Zach Remillard was outrighted to Charlotte on Thursday after clearing waivers.
- Jake Woodford was designated for assignment on Friday. He’s cleared waivers, elected free agency, and reportedly signed with the Pirates.
- Sammy Peralta was added to the 40-man roster and called up yesterday, while Shane Drohan was activated from the 60-day IL and immediately DFA’d. Nick Nastrini was optioned back to Triple-A to make room for Peralta.
- No word yet on the corresponding move for Thorpe.
Games:
- Monday: White Sox @ Seattle, 8:40 PM CDT (NBC Sports Chicago)
- Tuesday: White Sox @ Seattle, 8:40 PM CDT (NBC Sports Chicago)
- Wednesday: White Sox @ Seattle, 8:40 PM CDT (NBC Sports Chicago)
- Thursday: White Sox @ Seattle, 8:40 PM CDT (NBC Sports Chicago)
The bats must face Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, and Luis Castillo, but against the Mariners, it could actually be worse, as the Sox dodge George Kirby. Erick Fedde, Thorpe, Jonathan Cannon, and Garrett Crochet are the Chicago probables, and there’s cause for optimism with all four. Cannon’s FIP and xERA are both much better than his ERA, even if the xERA’s still close to 5.00. Amazing what adding Thorpe does for the rotation’s legitimacy. It looks something like an MLB rotation now.
Williams Out, Reese Thriving
Tough news for the Sky on Saturday, as Elizabeth Williams is out for the rest of the season with a torn meniscus. One of the team’s better players and a valuable veteran presence, Williams’s absence puts Kamilla Cardoso into a bigger role down low. Cardoso was a top-three pick in a historic class, but she’s a rookie in a veteran-heavy league, and it’s always better to have two good bigs than one.
The Sky went 1–1 over the weekend, winning in Angel Reese’s trip home to D.C. but losing on Saturday to Atlanta back in Chicago. Reese had double–doubles in both games, while Chennedy Carter put up a big scoring night on Thursday before a much quieter outing Saturday. Marina Mabrey struggled in the loss to the Dream, one which left the Sky 4–6 and 8th in the league. Next game’s Wednesday against the league-leading Connecticut Sun, who lost their first game of the year on Saturday in front of the Oregon Duck.
Games:
- Wednesday: Sky vs. Connecticut, 7:00 PM CDT (WCIU)
R.I.P. Chet Walker
Hall of Famer Chet Walker passed away last week at the age of 84. Walker, a Bradley product, played six years for the Bulls in the early days of the franchise, helping lead the team to its first winning seasons ever while cementing his legacy as one of the better scorers of the 60’s and 70’s NBA. Also, his nickname was Chet the Jet, which is hard to beat. Prayers for Walker, and for those who grieve.
What About the Trenches?
Paradoxically, given the sport’s historic narratives, I’m not sure football has ever placed greater importance on line play than it does right now. Money which used to go to running backs goes to offensive linemen. Defensive ends have their trendy new “edge rusher” name and are paid even more. Against this backdrop, many are calling these Bears the single best situation ever for a QB who was a first overall pick.
And yet the questions for this team, routinely, from many of the same people, are 1) what they’ll do to reinforce their defensive line and 2) whether their offensive line will get healthy, let alone stay that way.
It’s a fair and relative point that the offensive line graded out well last year. But the defensive line did not, and even for the o-line, consistency is far from assured. Maybe it’ll work out well, but offensive line should not be an afterthought in discussions about “supporting cast” and infrastructure. It should be the center of the conversation, trailing only coaching. The message the last decade has taught is that offensive lines are more important than running backs. A bizarrely common response to this revelation goes, “Got it. Wide receivers are more important than running backs.” I don’t get it.
Moves:
- Marcedes Lewis is expected to re-sign this week, marking the beginning of his 19th season in an NFL uniform. Elite vibes guy, and I mean that sincerely.
Kyle Davidson Is No Fun
Kyle Davidson said Friday that he doesn’t expect the Blackhawks to sign Patrick Kane in free agency this offseason, which is lame but probably sensible. It’s one of those decisions where the argument is philosophical and subjective (veteran partner for Connor Bedard vs. commitment to the new core), and Davidson knows his roster better than anyone. It would be very, very cool to see Kane and Bedard playing together, and maybe there’s still a path to it if the Blackhawks surprise out of the gate and are looking for an offensive upgrade at the deadline, but it’s hard to be mad at Davidson for trusting his own process. Also, if the Jake Guentzel rumors are true, the Hawks might be looking at bigger swings than Kane, which would make the argument not philosophical, and not really an argument at all.
In other news, the front office is “leaning towards” drafting Artyom Levshunov second overall. It’s unclear if international politics and warmongering are playing any role. The Michigan State defenseman is Belarussian, but he’s already over here. The other option, Ivan Demidov, is Russian and would be coming straight from the KHL. There aren’t any heavy indications that the NHL’s Russian pipeline’s at risk of a Nord Stream treatment, but I do wonder what kind of weight the possibility carries, especially for as high-value an asset as the second overall pick.
