Last night’s loss was frustrating. The Cubs had a chance to win a second straight series, and with things going wrong for the Mets in the ninth inning, there’s a decent chance the visitors would have wilted had the Cubs put more pressure on them, both during that inning and earlier in the night. It was not, however, concerning. The Cubs didn’t play particularly badly, the Mets are a competitive team, and it’s June.
Friday’s loss was concerning.
For the second straight year, most of the things going well for the Cubs are the performance of their offseason acquisitions. Michael Busch is the Cubs’ best hitter as the season’s halfway mark bears down. Shōta Imanaga was a Cy Young candidate when we woke up Friday morning.
Friday’s loss was concerning.
Imanaga didn’t only have a bad game. Imanaga got shelled. Three home runs in three innings is a lot of home runs. We will not state the number of runners who crossed the plate.
Imanaga had a start like this towards the end of May against the Brewers. There were only two home runs, and he managed to get four more outs, and the collective damage from those home runs was smaller. But he had a start like this, and he bounced back, and over his next three outings he struck out 19, walked one, and allowed a mere four earned runs. Given this and given Imanaga is a proven professional (not a traditional rookie with little experience combatting this sort of innings count or this level of scouting), the likelihood is low that Imanaga continues to struggle.
The reason this is still concerning is how much is resting on Imanaga’s shoulders. The scenario in which he does seriously regress is so destructive for the Cubs that even with a low probability, it carries significant weight. Just as the Cubs need Busch to do something like keeping it up, the Cubs need Imanaga to continue at his new season-to-date average pace: They need Imanaga to be that second starter the original optimistic expectations hoped he would be.
It wasn’t a bad series loss, in and of itself.
But it would have been a very good series win, and the Cubs’ closest thing to an ace got obliterated to open it up.
Moves/Injuries:
- Mark Leiter Jr.’s onto the 15-day IL, and it’s a forearm strain, and Leiter already had Tommy John surgery once a few years ago, and that’s not an encouraging detail. It’s often not Tommy John when it’s a forearm, but when it’s Tommy John, it does always begin with a forearm or something nearby. Luke Little was called back up to take Leiter’s roster spot, having been sent down on Saturday when Keegan Thompson came back from the Paternity List.
- The Blue Jays claimed Jose Cuas off waivers. Sometimes, it doesn’t work out.
News/Rumors/Speculation:
- Meghan Montemurro shared more about Ben Brown’s stress reaction, saying it’s expected to keep him out for maybe two more months after he already pitched through the worst of it. Unfortunately, this is a six-month season, we’re almost halfway done, and I can let you do the math from there.
- Miguel Amaya committed catcher’s interference again last night, and even with a 1-for-3 night, his batting average sits below .200. That’s not a Schwarber sub-.200 either. Out of 246 hitters with 170 or more PA’s this year, Amaya has the 16th-worst OBP and the third-worst slugging percentage. Hence: Tomás Nido. In Amaya’s defense, he was not supposed to be as good as he was last year. He fell off as a prospect when his injuries mounted, he only ever got 60 PA’s above Double-A, and he came up because the Cubs were in trouble and needed his help. Amaya isn’t letting anybody down. The problem with this defense is that it’s far from bullish on Amaya. Amaya is probably not the Cubs’ long-term catcher. He’s adequate defensively, and the bat should bounce back a little (his xwOBA’s at .291, in line with an upper-80’s wRC+ which would be perfectly respectable for a catcher), but the bigger importance of Moises Ballesteros working out is not that Ballesteros could make a difference this year. It’s that over the next five or six years, it might save the Cubs from chasing an impact free agent at a rare position, and it might allow Amaya to take on a backup role, one in which he would theoretically excel.
Games:
- Monday, 8:45 PM CDT: Cubs @ San Francisco (Marquee)
- Tuesday, 8:45 PM CDT: Cubs @ San Francisco (Marquee/MLB Network)
- Wednesday, 8:45 PM CDT: Cubs @ San Francisco (Marquee)
- Thursday, 2:45 PM CDT: Cubs @ San Francisco (Marquee/MLB Network)
The Giants are all wearing number 24 tonight in their first home game since Willie Mays passed away. That continues to be the main story in baseball, as it should be.
With regard to matchups, Logan Webb pitched yesterday, so the Cubs will dodge him. Blake Snell made a rehab start yesterday, so he won’t be an option. The only listed starter, besides tonight’s opener, is Jordan Hicks on Thursday. The rest of the series is a mix of bullpen games, with a possible debut thrown in there (Carson Whisenhunt is a top-100 prospect in some places, and some believe he’ll start tomorrow night).
For the Cubs, Imanaga is the question mark. Do they start him on normal rest or give him a day? It seems likeliest right now that it’s the latter and that Wednesday’s a bullpen game.
Angel Reese Got One Back
The Sky finally beat the Fever yesterday, with Angel Reese pouring in 25 points and comfortably notching yet another double–double. The game came down to the wire—Marina Mabrey missed two free throws that would have given the Sky at least a little comfort—but after two losses to the Fever already this year, no complaints.
Reese vs. Caitlin Clark is far from over, but we do get a couple months before it rears it’s head again. In the meantime, the Sky are up to 6–9 and currently sit in playoff position, percentage points ahead of Indiana.
Coming up:
- Thursday, 6:00 PM CDT: Sky vs. Las Vegas (Prime Video/Marquee)
The Aces are off to a slower start, currently sitting at 8–6 overall. They remain the title favorites in futures markets, though, and they’ve gotten healthier recently.
The White Sox’ Paul DeJong Problem
We don’t mean to pick on Paul DeJong. He’s far from the problem with the White Sox. But DeJong’s game-ending TOOTBLAN on Friday emblemized exactly what we’ve been talking about with this White Sox team: Their culture is a mess.
DeJong signed with the White Sox this offseason with the full expectation of serving as trade bait. His purpose was not to help the White Sox win now. It was to help the White Sox win later while earning himself a fun role on a contending team. He’s said as much, explicitly discussing it a few weeks ago on 670 The Score.
There’s nothing wrong with this approach, for a team or for DeJong. Where it goes wrong is when the White Sox fail to keep these veteran trade pieces engaged. Will this miscue affect DeJong’s trade value? Probably not. Does it affect the development of younger White Sox players? It really might. The White Sox have been one of the worst baserunning teams in baseball. They’re second to last in Outs Above Average and near the top of the league in errors. They’re near the top of the league in balks.
The team isn’t just bad. It’s sloppy. That indicates a culture problem, and while Pedro Grifol’s tenure has been rocky enough in that department to justify firing a long time ago, this is also something that reflects poorly on trade bait veterans like DeJong. Nobody should TOOTBLAN in that situation. But especially not the adults in the room.
Moves:
- Duke Ellis landed on the Mets’ 40-man roster.
Games:
- Monday, 7:10 PM CDT: White Sox vs. Los Angeles (NBC Sports Chicago)
- Tuesday, 7:10 PM CDT: White Sox vs. Los Angeles (NBC Sports Chicago)
- Wednesday, 7:10 PM CDT: White Sox vs. Los Angeles (NBC Sports Chicago)
- Thursday, 3:10 PM CDT: White Sox vs. Atlanta (NBC Sports Chicago)
Tough way to start the week, playing two of the five best teams in the game. Garrett Crochet vs. James Paxton isn’t a bad matchup tonight, though, and Erick Fedde should give the Sox a chance on Wednesday, possibly against Gavin Stone. Thursday’s game is a rain makeup from April before the Braves head back to Georgia.
Mock Draft Roundup: Bulls Edition
In a subjectively chosen sampling of eight mock drafts (Givony/Woo, nbadraft.net, Vecenie, Tankathon, O’Donnell, Parrish, O’Connor, Iko/Edwards/Robbins)…
- Three projected the Bulls to take Devin Carter eleventh overall.
- Three projected the Bulls to take Ron Holland eleventh overall.
- One projected the Bulls to take Nikola Topić eleventh overall.
- One projected the Bulls to take Rob Dillingham eleventh overall.
- Terrence Shannon Jr. received a mention as a possibility.
- It was acknowledged that the Bulls might try to move up in the draft.
At this point, it seems unlikely the Bulls pick higher than eleventh unless they trade the eleventh pick. There’s not a lot of time left before Wednesday night, and it’s doubtful someone would give up a top-ten pick for Zach LaVine. At that point in the draft, it’s not a matter of who the Bulls want as much as it’s a matter of who’s available. Thankfully, these are good options. Carter’s a phenomenal athlete, Holland was an all-world high school recruit, Topić has slipped partly because he’ll need some time to heal up, and Dillingham was one of the best offensive talents in college basketball this year. Unthankfully, Artūras Karnišovas is calling the shots. Buckle up.
(The New York Times reported that the Kings offered the Bulls the 13th pick plus more for Alex Caruso and possibly more. Please do not bang your head against that wall with too much force.)
What First for the Blackhawks?
It’s supposed to be a big Blackhawks offseason, with the majority of the action happening this week and next. The NHL season ends tonight. The NHL Draft begins on Friday. NHL free agency begins on Monday.
The Blackhawks have a lot of needs: A forward to play alongside Connor Bedard. A second-line center. Help on the blue line. A backup goalie. This is how it goes with very bad teams. Even if the future’s bright, there are naturally holes to fill. What’s a question for the Blackhawks is which holes get filled first, and how.
There hasn’t been a particularly strong correlation so far this month between smoke and fire. Jacob Markström, Darcy Kuemper, and Pierre-Luc Dubois all moving wasn’t shocking, but neither of the trades involving those players came at the end of a well-narrated negotiation. One reason I say this is that Martin Nečas has been the subject of a lot of smoke, but that doesn’t mean his domino will topple particularly soon. The other is that the Blackhawks are likely up to things that have thus far gone unreported.
Does anything happen before the draft? It seems slightly unlikely. Last year, there were only about a dozen trades league-wide before the draft began. So far this year, there have been eight offseason trades, one of which—the pick swap with the Islanders—involved the Hawks. Kyle Davidson has a track record of pre-draft (and in-draft) activity, but it’s not some overwhelming indicator a trade will happen.
Using history as a guide, there seems to be a little better than a 50% chance we reach Friday without any new non-RFA offseason Blackhawks moves. With free agency a week away, though, the dominoes will fall fast. Whether something happens before then or not, Friday should kick off a busy, busy seven or eight days.
The State of the Bears’ Offensive Line
In the Bears’ ideal world, the offensive line looks like this Week 1:
- LT: Braxton Jones
- LG: Teven Jenkins
- C: Ryan Bates
- RG: Nate Davis
- RT: Darnell Wright
The list is most secure at the tackle positions. Darnell Wright is coming off a strong rookie year. Braxton Jones was a good rookie in 2022 and played well last year when healthy, finishing the year strong. Neither is a top-tier tackle within the league, but the position is stable, solid, and youthful, a good combination.
At center, Bates sounds to be only slightly better than a coin flip to start. He’ll very much be in a training camp competition with Coleman Shelton. It might not sound ideal, but this is a situation with a little bit of upside and hardly any downside. The Bears have built a little diverse portfolio at the position, and while they’re more committed to Bates than Shelton (Bates has another year on his contract and makes 14% more money), the position should be fine after training camp as long as the best center wins.
Where the issues arise are at guard. Teven Jenkins is well-respected, but his injury history is more significant than that of Jones, and he’s looking for his rookie contract extension that has so far yet to come. If Jenkins healthy and happy, the left guard position should be fine. If Jenkins is unhealthy or unhappy, the line starts getting thin. Making matters worse, Nate Davis—the Bears’ seventh-highest paid player—was a major disappointment in his first year in Chicago.
If everyone stays healthy and Davis plays serviceably, the unit has the potential to be a top-half offensive line. But offensive lines hardly ever stay healthy in the NFL. Behind whoever loses the Bates/Shelton competition, the unit has little depth,* and its anchors are far from all-world blockers. It’s hard to see how the line could fit within the league’s top ten. It’s easy to see how it could fit within the league’s bottom five. With a rookie quarterback whose biggest red flag is how long he holds the ball, the bad-case scenario risks blowing up the bridge to the much-idealized future.
*Matt Pryor might be serviceable, but he’s never been more than a fire extinguisher. Kiran Amegadjie has good long-term potential but is coming off injury and is an unusually raw project.
